Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +21 with sentiment mixed. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods orders @ 8:30.  Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. 

Welcome to Poker Week! 

There are plenty of similarities between trading and poker. For example, both require tremendous discipline and superb risk management. 

One excellent book every trader should read is Zen and the Art of Poker by Larry Phillips. This week’s blog is dedicated to 5 key lessons from the book. Enjoy!

Lesson #1: Fold More Often

The first thing you’ll learn to become a winning poker player is this: Fold more often. Wait for the best cards. Be patient. 

Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? In fact, most gamblers would run for the door looking for action elsewhere. 

Successful trading,...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +43 to +36 with a most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Powell & New Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:30, 13:45, 14:15. 

Quick Tip: Drop the Ego

One of the hardest transitions to make as a trader is the reframing of your belief about winning and losing. We were raised defining winning as good and losing as bad. Now we must change that belief.

Mark Douglas, author of two books on trading psychology said, “When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” 

Curtis Faith, one of the original Turtle Traders and author of Way of the Turtle, summed it up succinctly: “Winning traders think in the present time and...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +7 to +43 with a most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. S&P MFG/Services PMI Flash @ 9:45. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Kansas City MFG @ 11:00.

Quick Tip: Wonder More

Here’s a quote I love from superstar attorney Gerry Spence: “I would rather have a mind that is opened by wonder than one closed by belief.” 

At first this quote seems to simply say “Have an open mind.” But it goes deeper than that. It’s more than merely having a positive attitude or not being fixed by your own opinion. 

The key word is wonder. You can have an open mind that is limited. There are degrees of openness. It is almost like an oscillator that pegs in both directions. You have a self-imposed limit on how much...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 again with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @14:00. Waiting on Powell’s Friday speech. 

Quick Tip: Outside the Box

Trading with price charts and technical indicators is hugely popular. Being a visual learner, I find them useful too. Patterns and colored indicators “speak” to me quickly. With practice, you don’t need a calculator or much thought to analyze opportunities. 

Eighteen months ago, I learned a different approach. It made me realize I was confining my trade plan and limiting myself to being just another retail trader using an all-too-common approach. 

As usual, I started a deep dive into researching this new approach. For me that included finding significant...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Bostic @ 13:35 and Barr @ 14:45. 

Quick Tip: Best Fit

There are virtually countless ways to trade. Different styles, strategies, time horizons, tools to use, etc. 

How do you know which you should trade? 

Most traders go at this decision backwards. They hunt around for a strategy or mentor that has proof the edge is there and they imagine relatively easy success copying it. 

While there is nothing wrong experimenting with different approaches, successful traders find that they do better fitting the strategy to their personality, not trying to change their personality to fit the strategy. 

One obvious example is time horizon. You might find a solid...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 to +7 with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Waller @ 9:15. 

Quick Tip: Waiting 

I grew up in Michigan. A local saying about the weather was “Wait a day, it’ll change.” Now I live in Florida where during the rainy season you can drop your waiting time to an hour!

Markets are very similar. They trend up or down and then move sideways. Back and forth. Patience pays off and impulsivity gets hammered. 

This cyclicality applies to your strategy performance too. You’ll have winning streaks, flat periods, and losing streaks. Given this reality you need rules to manage each condition to prosper, even survive. 

Here’s an example: The volume levels suggested here are one component of an overall strategy that pre-determines stops and...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +21 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Building Permits/Housing Starts @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 13:25. 

Quick Tip: Sell or Hold? 

Money messes with our heads. Until you get a grip on the emotions associated with winning and losing, you’re unlikely to succeed. 

Here’s a viewpoint I learned from one of the all-time great traders, Larry Williams: “More money is lost due to overstaying positions (greed) than exiting due to the fear of losing money.” 

Your fear is likely solved by using stops that lose an amount of money you can accept. Easy enough.

If Larry is correct, and I do believe he is, then greed is solved by pre-planned profit targets and open trade management. Planning targets is...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +14 to +21 with sentiment mildly Bullish and volatility lower.

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Empire State MFG Index, Philly Fed MFG Index, & Import/Export prices @ 8:30. Fed’s Musalem @ 9:10. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Harker @ 13:10. 

Quick Tip: This is a Business

If you treat your trading like a hobby or pastime you’ll lose money. If you treat it like a business, you have a much better chance for success. 

The expense side of trading is simple to analyze. You have losses, commissions, data fees, internet access, accounting, etc. 

The revenue side of trading is simple as well: your winning trades. But that’s only one revenue stream if you’re trading ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +7 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility low.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.   

Quick Tip: Re-Starting

When you start trading you’re obviously attracted to the potential gains and entrepreneurial freedom from traditional work. But trading is not easy to master and losing in the beginning is normal. This is why learning to trade in simulation mode makes sense. 

Of course, simulated trading can only teach you execution. It doesn’t address the psychological challenges of winning, losing, being right, and being wrong. Still, it’s the best “first step.”

Fast forward to once you’re a profitable trader. You’ve experienced winning and losing but you’ve built the confidence to manage the losing streaks because they’ve...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +7 with sentiment mixed and volatility lower.

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. Fed’s Bostic @ 13:15. Waiting on CPI tomorrow.  

Quick Tip: After You Exit

Hall of Fame baseball legend Ted Williams would have been an outstanding trader. When asked about his success he explained a method that all great traders use. 

He documented the details of every at-bat. 

Specifically, he separated the plate into different zones and calculated his batting average for each zone. Swinging at low pitches was not so productive. Swinging at high pitches directly over the plate was very productive!

Traders have far more details they can document than a few zones over the plate. Some data is obvious like time of day, volatility, trend, asset, etc. 

To truly excel documenting details about yourself will set you apart. Were you focused, rested,...