Trade Aptitude

trade planning May 22, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5321.50 stop 5317.50. Short 5318.25 stop 5322.25 if price drops below and retraces up to entry.

Tuesday’s results: No trade triggered.

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -57 to -37 with all major world markets modestly Bearish except Shanghai.

Catalysts: Fed’s Goolsbee @ 9:40. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC minutes release @ 14:00. NVDA earnings @ 16:20.

Quick Tip: Bank It

How traders approach their craft is very individual. Three traders using the same strategy may have different beliefs that vary their results, yet they follow the same entry and exit rules.

Imagine your strategy caught a buy early in the day that ran for 30 S&P points. That’s a big win for a day trader. Would you bank your day or keep trading? This decision has nothing to do with the strategy rules. It’s personal money...

Trade Aptitude

stock market trade planning May 21, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5321.50 stop 5317.50. Short 5318.25 stop 5322.25 if price drops below and retraces up to entry.

Monday’s results: No trade triggered in a narrow range day session.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +50 to -57 with all major world markets abruptly turning Bearish. S&P futures stable so far.

Catalysts: Fed Speakers: Waller & Barkin @ 9:00, Williams @ 9:05, Bostic @ 9:10, Barr @ 11:45. Waiting on NVDA earnings tomorrow.

Quick Tip: Catalysts

Directional trading strategies require movement to succeed, and that movement is usually initiated by a catalyst. Once the buying (or selling) catches on momentum kicks in. Simple enough.

Popular catalysts include earnings releases, new product announcements, expansion plans, C-level changes, economic news, geopolitical events, and interest rate changes, etc.

On occasion a company becomes so...

Trade Aptitude

risk management trade planning May 20, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: : Buy 5321.50 stop 5317.50. No short suggestion today.

Friday’s results: Neither trade triggered.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -7 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish.

Catalysts: Fed Speakers: Bostic @ 7:30 & 8:45, Waller & Barr @ 9:00, Jefferson @ 10:30, Mester @14:00.

Quick Tip: Blackjack

Much has been said about the similarities between trading and gambling. Much is true. All is not. A fabulous book you should read about this topic is A Man for All Markets by Edward O. Thorp, an accomplished mathematician, author of Beat the Dealer, and acclaimed hedge fund manager.

When Thorp tested his blackjack card counting system in the real world, financed by two wealthy (and greedy) millionaire businessmen, he uncovered a significant “edge” that you can and should apply to your trading.

His backers wanted...

Trade Aptitude

personal development psychology May 17, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: : Buy 5300.00 stop 5295.50. Short 5338.75 stop 5342.00.

Thursday’s results: Buying 5327.75 held for 4 bounces offering up to 8.25 points. Scalpers heaven.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +14 to -7 with Asia Bullish and the western world mixed.

Catalysts: Fed Speakers: Kashkari & Waller @ 10:15, Daly @ 12:15.

Quick Tip: Brain Food

We’re living longer and healthier than prior generations. Attention to diet and exercise play a huge part. We know better what to feed our bodies and those that practice some discipline with diet and exercise reap the longevity benefit.

Your mind needs food, too. Not just the kind you eat, the kind you read, watch, and listen to.

You’re a trader so I’m sure you have plenty of trading resources for reference. Now broaden your mindset and challenge your beliefs with some books that while...

Trade Aptitude

risk management trade planning May 16, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: : Buy 5327.75 stop 5322.00. Blue skies above, no short levels.

Wednesday’s results: The short at 5296.25 was filtered out during the CPI release volatility.

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -7 to +14 with Asia Bullish and the western world mixed.

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG Index, Housing Starts/Building Permits, Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Fed Speakers today: Barkin & Barr @ 10:00, Harker @ 10:30, Mester @ 12:00, Bostic @ 15:50.

Quick Tip: Confirmation

Here’s a great quote from Jesse Livermore that deserves your attention, “Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong."

In our effort to succeed we can devote too much effort to predicting the future. The problem is that our predictions are correct just enough of...

Trade Aptitude

day trading futures risk management May 15, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: : Buy 5248.75 stop 5244.75. Short 5296.25 stop 5300.75 (filtered out during CPI release due to potential volatility).

Tuesday’s results: The buy at 5231.25 was filtered out during the PPI release volatility.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -7 for the third day in a row with sentiment mixed on continued low volatility.

Catalysts: CPI, Retail Sales, Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Kashkari @ 12:00 and Bowman @ 15:20.

Quick Tip: Why Day Trade?

If you have a long-only portfolio, IRA, and/or 401-K you’re probably happy with your 2024 performance so far. You’re also likely concerned about how much higher the market will go!

The adage “Sell in May and go away” doesn’t work out every year, but there is the possibility. Couple the time of year...

Trade Aptitude

technical analysis trade planning May 14, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: : Buy 5231.25 stop 5227.25. Short 5296.25 stop 5300.75 (filtered out during PPI release and Powell speaking due to potential volatility).

Monday’s results: Neither trade triggered in a narrow range session. The levels remain on the chart.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -7 with sentiment mixed on continued low volatility.

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. Fed’s Cook @ 9:10 and Powell @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Anchored VWAP

If you’re looking for a new trading approach using a technical indicator I highly recommend Brian Shannon’s book Anchored VWAP.

VWAP means Volume Weighted Average Price. The basic version of the indicator is available on many trading platforms. Essentially, it starts calculating at the open of the market and combines price, time & volume to determine the average price as the day passes. It looks like a moving average on your...

Trade Aptitude

risk management trade planning May 13, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5231.25 stop 5227.25. Short 5296.25 stop 5300.75.

Friday’s results: Neither trade suggestion triggered. The levels remain on the chart.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +50 to -7 with sentiment mixed on very low volatility.

Catalysts: Fed’s Jefferson & Mester @ 9:00. NY Fed Inflation Expectations @ 11:00.

Quick Tip: Big Risk Defined

Big risk is not in the trade itself. You have a stop loss to control that. Big risk is in the losing streak.

Billionaire hedge fund founder Bruce Kovner said “Novice traders trade 5 to 10 times too big. They are taking 5 to 10% risks on a trade they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.”

The key is to not apply the percentage to the price of the asset but apply it to your risk capital. Simple math. If your risk capital is $10,000, you should risk no more than $100 to $200 on...

Trade Aptitude

day trading swing trading technical analysis May 10, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5231.25 stop 5227.25. Short 5296.25 stop 5300.75.

Thursday’s results: Shorting 5249.50 filled in the Globex session (3AM ET) and stopped out.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +14 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish.

Catalysts: Fed’s Bowman @ 9:00. UofM Sentiment (Preliminary) & Inflation, Fed’s Kashkari, and Logan @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:45.

Quick Tip: Fast Moves

Everyone loves a fast move in your chosen direction. Study enough price charts and you’ll see a recurring pattern: fast move up, base, fast move down. Sometimes the base is non-existent, and a pivot is formed. This pattern happens in reverse as well.

Fast moves stall and/or reverse more often than they just keep going. Taking some if not all your profit is never a bad idea. You can always re-enter at a better price during...

Trade Aptitude

personal development psychology May 09, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5185.25 stop 5181.75. Short 5249.50 stop 5253.50.

Wednesday’s results: Neither trade triggered.

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from -14 to +14, mixed sentiment and low volatility.

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Fed’s Daly @ 14:00.

Quick Tip: Is it fun?

In James Clear’s awesome book Atomic Habits, he reveals “The Truth About Talent.” While there is a genetic component to the answer, it’s not the only component.

Talent also comes from learning, training, and practice. But before you agree to dedicate yourself to all that work, you need to really like what you’re doing. It’s difficult to persist when you don’t like something. It’s easier to persist when you do.

Clear offers a few questions to ask yourself so you can “pick...

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