Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 again with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @14:00. Waiting on Powell’s Friday speech. 

Quick Tip: Outside the Box

Trading with price charts and technical indicators is hugely popular. Being a visual learner, I find them useful too. Patterns and colored indicators “speak” to me quickly. With practice, you don’t need a calculator or much thought to analyze opportunities. 

Eighteen months ago, I learned a different approach. It made me realize I was confining my trade plan and limiting myself to being just another retail trader using an all-too-common approach. 

As usual, I started a deep dive into researching this new approach. For me that included finding significant evidence the approach had an edge. And before I added it to my trade plan I ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Bostic @ 13:35 and Barr @ 14:45. 

Quick Tip: Best Fit

There are virtually countless ways to trade. Different styles, strategies, time horizons, tools to use, etc. 

How do you know which you should trade? 

Most traders go at this decision backwards. They hunt around for a strategy or mentor that has proof the edge is there and they imagine relatively easy success copying it. 

While there is nothing wrong experimenting with different approaches, successful traders find that they do better fitting the strategy to their personality, not trying to change their personality to fit the strategy. 

One obvious example is time horizon. You might find a solid winning strategy for day trading but once you do it you find it’s not fun. You don’t like the ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 to +7 with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Waller @ 9:15. 

Quick Tip: Waiting 

I grew up in Michigan. A local saying about the weather was “Wait a day, it’ll change.” Now I live in Florida where during the rainy season you can drop your waiting time to an hour!

Markets are very similar. They trend up or down and then move sideways. Back and forth. Patience pays off and impulsivity gets hammered. 

This cyclicality applies to your strategy performance too. You’ll have winning streaks, flat periods, and losing streaks. Given this reality you need rules to manage each condition to prosper, even survive. 

Here’s an example: The volume levels suggested here are one component of an overall strategy that pre-determines stops and targets. Lately the strategy is struggling, and no new levels have been shared.

Dr...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +21 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Building Permits/Housing Starts @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 13:25. 

Quick Tip: Sell or Hold? 

Money messes with our heads. Until you get a grip on the emotions associated with winning and losing, you’re unlikely to succeed. 

Here’s a viewpoint I learned from one of the all-time great traders, Larry Williams: “More money is lost due to overstaying positions (greed) than exiting due to the fear of losing money.” 

Your fear is likely solved by using stops that lose an amount of money you can accept. Easy enough.

If Larry is correct, and I do believe he is, then greed is solved by pre-planned profit targets and open trade management. Planning targets is easy, open trade management requires skill and discipline. 

Here’s an example: The chart abo...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +14 to +21 with sentiment mildly Bullish and volatility lower.

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Empire State MFG Index, Philly Fed MFG Index, & Import/Export prices @ 8:30. Fed’s Musalem @ 9:10. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Harker @ 13:10. 

Quick Tip: This is a Business

If you treat your trading like a hobby or pastime you’ll lose money. If you treat it like a business, you have a much better chance for success. 

The expense side of trading is simple to analyze. You have losses, commissions, data fees, internet access, accounting, etc. 

The revenue side of trading is simple as well: your winning trades. But that’s only one revenue stream if you’re trading one strategy. 

How many successful businesses do you know of that have one product? One revenue stream? 

Diver...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +7 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility low.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.   

Quick Tip: Re-Starting

When you start trading you’re obviously attracted to the potential gains and entrepreneurial freedom from traditional work. But trading is not easy to master and losing in the beginning is normal. This is why learning to trade in simulation mode makes sense. 

Of course, simulated trading can only teach you execution. It doesn’t address the psychological challenges of winning, losing, being right, and being wrong. Still, it’s the best “first step.”

Fast forward to once you’re a profitable trader. You’ve experienced winning and losing but you’ve built the confidence to manage the losing streaks because they’ve come and gone before. 

Here’s a usually tough decision that can be hugely beneficial: During or ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +7 with sentiment mixed and volatility lower.

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. Fed’s Bostic @ 13:15. Waiting on CPI tomorrow.  

Quick Tip: After You Exit

Hall of Fame baseball legend Ted Williams would have been an outstanding trader. When asked about his success he explained a method that all great traders use. 

He documented the details of every at-bat. 

Specifically, he separated the plate into different zones and calculated his batting average for each zone. Swinging at low pitches was not so productive. Swinging at high pitches directly over the plate was very productive!

Traders have far more details they can document than a few zones over the plate. Some data is obvious like time of day, volatility, trend, asset, etc. 

To truly excel documenting details about yourself will set you apart. Were you focused, rested, energetic, optimistic and confident? Or were you di...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -50 to +43 with most of the world Bullish on falling volatility.  

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today. 

Quick Tip: Stay Open

If you’re always “right” then you’ll never be open minded enough to change for the better. Being flexible and open-minded to new ideas is a huge advantage in trading. 

I’m not saying you simply agree with every new idea you hear. I’m saying that when you’re presented with an intriguing idea (setup, rule, etc.) you owe it to yourself to investigate the value of it. And if you find improvement, then accept the change. 

I was told the great investor George Soros wrote in his book about a trade he took in the Japanese Yen. It ended up a monster winner. His first entry was short based on his analysis. It failed quickly so he doubled his size and went long. Just like that!

We are all going to be wrong or mistaken at times. The key to suc...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +79 to -50 with renewed selling and sticky volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Fed’s Barkin @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: Try Waiting 

Successful trading skills are very different in many cases than how we’ve been conditioned to believe and behave. We were all taught to work hard and smart to control the outcome of our efforts. In trading we cannot control whether we win or lose but we can control how much we lose. 

Some market conditions are more difficult than others to even control the losses! What’s the solution? 

Here’s some advice from arguably one of the best traders in history, Jim Rogers. 

He said “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I must do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime."

Who was taught this concept growing up? Did Dad ever say, “Do nothing?” Your teacher? Your bos...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -7 to +79 with all thoughts of the correction vanishing. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Collins @ 12:00. 10-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Change It

Popular trader psychologist and author Brett Steenbarger said, “The greatest enemy of change is routine.” 

I had to stop and think about this. Over the years I’ve learned that routines are healthy. They are habits and assuming they’re good for you, they’re important to have. I started a morning routine, a pre-trading routine, a midday routine, and a nighttime routine. 

So now I’m being advised to change all that? 

Not at all. Steenbarger was referring to the time you spend between your routines, in particular while trading. The pre-trading routine is important. Keep it. 

But don’t go on autopilot while trading. Be aware of changing market conditions. Listen to divergent viewpoints. Zoom out to the...