Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +43 to -36 with all major world markets flat or Bearish. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate @ 8:30. Fed’s Cook @ 12:00. 

Quick Tip: Great Job! 

Your focus when trading should be on doing the job well. That doesn’t necessarily mean winning. You can do your job well and lose. Why? Because we have no control over the outcome, only our behavior and discipline to follow our rules. 

Here are your main “job” components as a trader: Research, practice, preparation, execution, and review. 

There are plenty of analogies that compare traders with athletes, musicians, artists, and the military. These are all considered performance activities. So is trading. Think...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold. To understand why, read yesterday's newsletter.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +57 to -29 with most major world markets Bearish.  

Catalysts: JOLTS & Factory Orders @10:00

Quick Tip: Your Hot List

If you’re a directional stock or options trader you know the importance of stock selection. All the trading skills in the world don’t matter if you’re trading assets that don’t move. 

You could look at the historical performance of stocks to assume their past will repeat in the future but that’s not ideal. 

There is a better way… a true Leading Indicator. Insider buying. Key executives have only one reason to write 7 and 8-figure checks to own more of their company. They think it’s going up and research has proven this to be true.

From "The...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Friday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -14 to +57 with all major world markets Bullish.  

Catalysts: Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI, MFG Prices & Construction Spending @10:00

Quick Tip: When to Stop

All trading strategies have drawdowns (a protracted losing streak). The challenge is trading through it. You can’t stop thinking that it may “never come back” or churn for an extended period. Or you could get FOMO and think if you stop now it will roar back and you’ll miss the gain. Obviously, these thoughts are destructive. Don’t go there. 

What you should do is have Stop-n-start rules to follow. These are rules that tell you when to stop trading the strategy and when, if ever, to start up again. This will take the emotion out of the process. Apply these rules to...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -29 to -14 with sentiment mixed on varying volatility, leaning Bearish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Spending @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Fed’s Williams @ 12:05. 

Quick Tip: Good Question

Think for a moment before you answer this seemingly simple question. Do you find it harder to take a loss or a profit? 

The answer says a lot about your trade plan, style, trading psychology, and what you need to work on. 

If your answer was a loss, then your risk management plan needs help. You’re probably risking too much. You might be trading the wrong strategy, one with more losers than winners like trend following. Your personality might be the problem if you get annoyed being wrong (trading is about probabilities, not...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -43 to -29 with sentiment mixed on varying volatility, leaning Bearish. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, PCE Advance @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Williams @ 12:05. 

Quick Tip: Get PAID

Trade plans are essential. But they are one piece of the puzzle. Aside from all the common components your Trade Plan needs an overriding structure, method, philosophy. We created the PAID method of trading to accomplish this. 

PAID is an acronym for Plan/Abundance/Investigate/Decide. Simply said, we trade multiple strategies for an abundance of opportunities which we investigate for best probability then decide which trade to enter. 

Abundance is critical. If...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: Price whipsawed the volume level stopping out both trades.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -21 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Williams @ 13:45. Beige Book @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Waiting 

I grew up in Michigan. A local saying about the weather was “Wait a day, it’ll change.” Now I live in Florida where during the rainy season you can drop your waiting time to an hour!

Markets are very similar. They trend up or down and then move sideways. Back and forth. Patience pays off and impulsivity gets hammered. 

This cyclicality applies to your strategy performance too. You’ll have winning streaks, flat periods, and losing streaks. Given this reality you need rules to manage each condition to prosper, even...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5322.75 stop 5319.25. Short 5320.00 stop 5334.50 if price drops below and retraces to entry. 

Friday’s results: Neither trade triggered. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -57 to -21 with all major world markets mildly Bearish or neutral on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Fed’s Kashkari @ 9:55. Consumer Confidence @ 10:00. Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. Fed’s Cook & Daly @ 13:05. 

Quick Tip: Finding Edge

Simply put, Edge is probable advantage. It’s what the casinos have. The gambler can win any given day, but the casino will win every day. 

Edge can be mysterious to many traders. How do you find edge? Research is the best start but what are you looking for to validate it? 

Here’s a simple formula to calibrate and validate the edge in any trading strategy. 

1. Look at as many trade setups as you can find...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5248.75 stop 5244.75. Short 5330.00 stop 5334.50. 

Thursday’s results: Buying 5343.00 stopped out, shorting 5340.00 on the retracement ran to the close for 53.75 points. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +7 to -57 with most major world markets Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. Fed’s Waller @ 9:35. UofM Consumer Sentiment (Revised) @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Compartmentalize 

I’m re-printing a blog post today because I failed to apply this lesson yesterday and it cost me dearly. One of the traders on our team called me out on it. Accountability is one benefit of team trading. 

Here’s the setup: you have a 401-K (long only) and you trade short term for income (long and short). Every morning you go through your routine which includes assessing two different time horizons: 

1. The big picture. Trends on monthly...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5343.00 stop 5339.25. Short 5340.00 stop 5343.75 if price drops below and retraces up to entry. 

Wednesday’s results: Buying 5321.50 was filtered out during the FOMC Minutes volatility. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -37 to +7 with sentiment mixed, firmly Bearish in Shanghai & HK, Bullish elsewhere. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Flash MFG & Services PMI @ 9:45. New Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: After Losing 

What do you do after a losing trade? 

There’s statistical and observable evidence that the number of winning traders is much smaller than the number of mediocre, losing, and failed traders. 

If that’s the case, then the best lesson you could learn and the surest route to success in trading is to emulate the winners. Copy their successful actions. 

Setting aside their actual strategy...