Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short @ 4168.25 caught the top of the session and ran for 31.25 MFE and 15.50 at the close. Feel better about the win by donating a slice to my preferred charity, the Alzheimer’s Association. Click here. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4120.75 stop 4116.00. Short 4176.50 stop 4181.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from -21 to -57 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: PMI Flash @ 9:45. POTUS is getting tougher on Chinese investment by American companies. 

Quick Tip: The Turn

In Texas Hold ‘Em poker you’re dealt two “hole cards” (no one else can see them). In trading the analogy would be your setup to enter. 

The next three cards are called the “flop” (everyone can see them). In trading we...

Results of Wednday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short @ 4176.50 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4131.25 stop 4127.50. Short 4168.25 stop 4172.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from -50 to -21 with most major world markets mildly Bearish on lower volatility.

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Scattered Fed Speak, Yellen tentative. Economy stalled recently, credit is tightening.

Quick Tip: Data Challenges

Technical traders rely on price charts to assess current market conditions and potential future moves. But all price charts are not created equally. You have many choices. 

If you’re using time-based charts you must determine which time intervals apply best to your strategy. If you’re using share (volume)-based charts the same...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4131.25 stop 4127.50. Short 4176.50 stop 4180.75.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +36 to -50 with all major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Beige Book @ 14:00. Big layoffs announced in Tech & Entertainment

Quick Tip: Nothing Changes?

Here’s a great quote from Market Wizard Ed Seykota, “The markets are the same now as they were 50 years ago because they keep changing – just like they did then.” Clever, huh? 

We’ve seen the S&P volatility and range collapse over the past few weeks. The daily ATR (average true range) has dropped from 76 to 44. On March 23rd when ATR peaked our intraday trend strategy had an 86.75-point day....

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4163.75 stop 4160.00. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) eases from +43 to +36 with most major world markets mildly Bullish.   

Catalysts: Maybe Housing Starts @ 8:30. China’s return to growth moves the European markets and S&P futures higher. 

Quick Tip: Goals Don’t Work

I’m reading a great book, Atomic Habits by James Clear (highly recommended). Controversially, he opens with the view that goals while good don’t work. They’re inferior to the process you use to achieve the goal. 

Goals focus on the outcome, while processes focus on building systems that lead to continuous achievement. Goals are...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4145.50 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4131.25 stop 4127.50. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) eases from +50 to +43 with China/HK Bullish and the west mixed.   

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Housing Market Index @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: Consistency

Every trader wants to have a consistent winning experience. Your consistency is only as good as the edge in your trading plan and your ability to follow the rules with precision. Easier said than done. 

Curtis Faith, the most successful of the Turtle Traders, stresses that consistency comes from having a systematic approach and a thorough understanding of the limitations of that approach. 

What’s he saying? Your...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4143.50 offered a modest 4.75 points of reversal as price chopped sideways in the area for almost 2 hours.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4145.50 stop 4140.75. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +50 with all major world markets bullish (S&P futures flat).
 

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. FOMC Waller speaks @ 8:45. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Bad Decision? 

Life (and trading) is all about making more good decisions than bad decisions. We can’t possibly make all good decisions. Rather than be down when your decision was bad, learn something.  

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, was quoted in Bloomberg regarding...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4130.75 caught the bottom of the session and ran for 18 points to the next level @ 4148.75 (see Quick Tip for details). 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4109.75 stop 4104.00. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +43 to +29 in a world of mixed Bullish-leaning sentiment. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: How to Trade This

The turning points offered in this newsletter are from high volume price levels. The expectation, and history, of these levels is for price to reverse when entering and breakout when exiting. Nothing is certain but they’re effective enough of the time to trade. 

Looking at the chart you’ll notice the first trade was filled in the Globex...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The buy @ 4111.50 stopped out in the pre-market yesterday. The short at 4148.75 triggered in last night’s Globex and is currently the high of the session with 16+ points so far. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4130.75 stop 4126.25. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +7 to +43 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: IMF World Economic Outlook @ 9:00. Global Financial Stability Report @ 10:30. Yellen speaks @ 11:30. Next big release is CPI tomorrow. 

Quick Tip: Be Flexible

If you’re in the X-gen or Boomer generations this is beyond a trading lesson. It’s a life lesson. 

I read that over 10,00 Boomers are retiring every day. I’m sure there is a need for supplemental income for many, maybe most of...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Price traded in a relatively narrow range, neither suggested trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4111.50 stop 4106.50. Short 4148.75 stop 4154.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) is worthless today as Hong Kong and Europe are stilled closed for the Easter holiday. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Strong U.S. payrolls data on Friday during a closed market. Next big release is CPI on Wednesday.  

Quick Tip: Why Stats Matter

Here’s an important quote from Nassim Taleb, celebrity author of Black Swan and Antifragile, “Whether it’s Covid, vaccines, Bitcoin, or stuff about elections, we’re swayed by the anecdote. So our world is becoming more complex, requires more statistical sophistication while...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested buy at 4101.50 was the bottom of the day and ran to the close of the session for 17.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4082.25 stop 4077.50. Short 4148.75 stop 4154.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -40 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Fed’s Bullard speaks @ 10:00. The big news is tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report but the markets are closed for Good Friday. 

Quick Tip: Adjusting Targets

Your trading plan should have a basic set of entry and exit rules. Think of them as useful for “typical” market conditions. You can define typical by data mining your Excel spreadsheet of results and finding the average moves for and against (called Maximum Favorable Excursion or...