Friday’s results: No trades suggested. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No new levels today due to contract rollover.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -7 to -29 with most major world markets mildly Bearish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. S&P Global MFG & Services PMI Flash @ 9:45.  

Quick Tip: Futures Rollover

Futures contracts are buy/sell agreements between two parties. Every contract has a delivery date at which point the transaction ends and goods/money are exchanged. 

Many futures traders have no intention of fulfilling their contractual obligations. They’re either speculating on price direction. For these traders exiting the current contract before the delivery date and entering the next contract further out on the calendar is called rollover. 

For stock index futures the rollover is quarterly near the middle of March, June, September and December. The symbols will change to H, M, U, Z respectively. Starting today we’ll be ...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No suggested levels today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 top -7 with Asia Bearish and the west Bullish. 

Catalysts: Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Your Mindset

Much research has proven that your mindset affects outcome. If you think positive you’re likely to behave positively and cause a desirable outcome. Vice versa for negative thoughts and outcomes. 

Today being Friday the 13th, I thought it would be interesting to uncover some research on market outcomes for today. 

Two notable research projects on what is called the Friday the 13th Effect on financial markets were found. One study by Donald B. Keim and Robert F. Stambaugh in 1984 found that stock returns on Friday the 13th were significantly lower than on other Fridays. Conversely, a more recent analysis by Bespoke Investment Group revealed the opposite, the average gains for the S&P 500 are four times higher tha...

Yesterday’s results: Shorting 6091.75 stopped out. The long idea didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 6061.00 stop 6065.00 if price retraces up from below. Buy 6098.25 stop 6094.25 if price retraces down from above. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -7 to +36 with all major world markets neutral to Bullish. The S&P Futures are slightly down. 

Catalysts: PPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-year Bond Auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Be Committed

If you’re relatively new to trading you’ve probably experienced overwhelm from all the choices and decisions you must make. 

Which asset class to trade? 

What timeframe? 

Which broker? 

Whose strategy to follow? 

How much to risk? 

The list is long. After guiding more than 4000 new traders through the process of making these decisions over the past 18 years I’ve found there is a hierarchy to these decisions. 

Start with your commitment. Don’t even think “I’ll give trading a try.”

Here’s an example. A friend ...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade suggestion triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 6091.75 stop 6095.25. Buy 6017.25 stop 6012.25 (filtered out during CPI release volatility). 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -7 with sentiment mixed on very low volatility. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 10-year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Federal Budget Balance @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Off The Chart

All markets are influenced by the forces of supply and demand. More demand than supply will push the markets higher. This natural law works on every tradable asset. 

But is all demand visible on a price chart? For indexes, currencies, and commodities, I would argue yes. They are mostly institutional markets, and the footprints large traders leave can be found. Our team trades a chart-based Supply/Demand strategy that has a real edge. 

For individual stocks I would argue yes, but not always. While institutions play a major role in individual stock movement t...

Yesterday’s results: No trades suggested. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 6091.75 stop 6095.25. Buy 6094.50 stop 6091 if price retraces down from above. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from +21 to -7 with sentiment mixed on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Revised Non-Farm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Fear No More

Fear paralyzes progress in anything you do. In trading, there are 5 types of fear. Recognizing you’re susceptible to them is the first step to a solution. 

Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) – you can’t tolerate watching a winning trade from the sidelines. This breeds impulsivity. Solution: Have an abundance of trade opportunities using multiple strategies tuned to different market conditions. 

Fear of Loss – you still feel upset about losing money. Solution: Lower your risk and find a strategy you have confidence in by practicing in simulation mode. 

Fear of Being Wrong – you are embarrassed to be wrong and get mad at yourself when you ar...

Friday’s results: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No tradeable levels today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from +36 to +21 with most major world markets modestly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: NY Fed Inflation Expectations @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Synergy

Earnings season is almost over. Generally, stocks that beat expectations will rise and vice versa. Your portfolio will likely have winners and losers. If all you look at is the total value you’re missing opportunity. 

You should be asking yourself how you’re going to manage each position. Being proactive and planning will get you the calm confidence to execute without doubt. 

Most skilled traders will have profit targets and stop losses for each position. You can be more sophisticated though. Do you have “time” stops? Add-on price levels? Are you selling puts to buy more, or calls to capture extra income? 

If you don’t know what to do or how to do it, consider advice from Dr. Brett S...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 6100 stopped out. The short didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6065.00 stop 6061.25. Short 6062.00 stop 6065.75 if price retraces from below (filtered out during the Non-Farm Payrolls release).  

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +7 to +36 with most major world markets somewhat Bullish. 

Catalysts: Employment Situation @ 8:30. Fed’s Bowman @ 9:15, Goolsbee @ 10:30, Hammack @ 12:00, Daly @ 13:00. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Discipline

Three celebrated authors on trading success, Mark Douglas, Van Tharp, and Alexander Elder, all agree that one aspect of trading is crucially important: 

"The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading." - Mark Douglas

"Successful trading is not about being right; it’s about being disciplined. Discipline is the ability to follow one's trading plan, regardless of emotions or external inf...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6100.00 stop 6096.25 if price retraces down from above. Short 6079.50 stop 6083.75 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 with sentiment mixed on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Trade Balance & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Fed’s Barkin @ 11:30 and 12:15. 

Quick Tip: Outperformance

If you search for the “best mutual fund manager in history” you’ll find an article listing the top 5. On this list is Peter Lynch, famous for making Fidelity a household name by growing the Magellan fund to $13 Billion in assets while simultaneously doubling the S&P return. 

Clearly Lynch was a talented stock picker. Part of his research involved Insider trades. He commissioned a research firm to collect and analyze all the filings with the SEC. This was before the internet, so you can imagine how time-consuming the task was. 

To this day Insider buys of a certain type remain a ke...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered, and they remain on the chart today.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6017.25 stop 6012.25. Short 6013.00 stop 6018.00 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +14 to +57 with all major world markets Bullish on increasing volatility. The S&P Futures are not participating yet. 

Catalysts: JOLTS @ 10:00. Fed’s Kugler @ 12:35, Goolsbee @ 3:45. 

Quick Tip: One Tough Lesson

If you’re a discretionary trader intuitively making entry and exit decisions and you’re successful, congratulations! You are a rare breed. It’s not that discretionary trading doesn’t work, it’s that to succeed takes years to hone your skills. 

This leaves rule-based trading as the best alternative for developing trading skills and success for the vast majority. It seems so simple. Find a proven strategy with edge. Follow the rules. What can go wrong? 

Here’s the tough lesson you need to learn: You think you know what’s g...