Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5422.25 stop 5416.50. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -7 with sentiment mixed and volatility low. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Barr @ 10:00, Bowman @ 12:15. Waiting for CPI tomorrow.  

Quick Tip: Moving Stops

The stop loss placement decision is made before entry. It’s at a price where your choice of direction is proven wrong. 

You can always tighten the stop while the price is moving in your direction to minimize the risk. No one will tell you to increase your risk by moving the stop farther out if the price is going against you. Another alternative is to not move the stop at all and manage out of the trade from the profit target side. 

I know successful traders that have opposing views on this subject. The correct answer is not simple, though. You need to...

Friday’s results: Buying 5461.50 only bounced for 6.50 points. Shorting 5521.00 stopped out for a full loss. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5382.75 stop 5379.25. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -43 -7 with Asia Bearish and the Western world Bullish. 

Catalysts: Nothing obvious. 

Quick Tip: Tick Trick

A popular indicator for day trading stocks and index futures is the NYSE Tick. It’s a sentiment indicator that measures the number of stocks moving up versus down. For example, with about 2300 stocks on the NYSE if 1500 made an uptick on the last trade and 800 made a downtick the tick index would be +700 (1500 – 800). 

You can use it as supporting evidence to take long/short positions and as confluence for trend. Readings above zero support buys and readings below zero support sells. Keep in mind that it’s only effective for very short periods of...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5469.75 filled in the Globex session catching the low of the session and ran for 14.00 points still open and running. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5461.50 stop 5458.00. Short 5521.00 stop 5525.75. No trades suggested around the Non-Farm Payrolls release. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -7 to -43 with most major world markets back to Bearish. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate/Average Earnings @ 8:30. Fed’s Williams @ 8:45 and Waller @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Night Moves

One of the nice features of trading the volume levels from this newsletter is the set/forget entry available on the reversals. 

Yesterday’s buy at 5469.75 didn’t fill until 3:20 AM ET. You were likely sleeping. Placing the order beforehand brought you a welcome “Good Morning!”

You had a choice of stops: leave the initial stop level and potentially give up...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. The levels remain on the chart for today.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5469.75 stop 5465.00. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -64 to -7 with sentiment mixed and volatility waning. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Jobless Claims @ 8:30. S&P Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Confirmation

Here’s a great quote from Jesse Livermore, the inventor of stock day trading, "Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong."

In our effort to succeed we can devote too much effort to predicting the future. The problem is that our predictions are right just enough to keep us predicting! The feeling of getting into a winning trade at the start of the move is intoxicating. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5616.25 stop 5611.75. Short 5688.25 stop 5693.50. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +64 to -21 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. 

Catalysts: S&P MFG PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & Construction Spending @ 10:00 

Quick Tip: Drawdowns End

Are you plotting your strategy’s equity curve? If not, get started. It’s a modest amount of record keeping, and it will give you confidence and warn you to drawdowns and restarts. 

It’s important that the equity curve represents all trades your strategy teed up, not just the ones you took. Knowing the difference between your results (behavior) and what you should have done is critical to improving your results. 

The primary purpose of the equity curve is to view strategy results for continuing or halting trading. Our Volume Profile strategy went into a drawdown (losing streak) a while back, so it was halted....

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +64 with all major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. UofM Revised Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you haven’t read the last four blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #5: Maximizing Wins

In poker, as in trading, one universally agreed upon tenet is “minimize your losses and maximize your gains.” But what is the proper way to achieve that outcome?

Imagine you’re playing poker, and you get a powerful hand. Your reaction should be to raise the bet. Novice players make the mistake of slow betting the hand instead of raising. They want to keep players in the hand to maximize the pot and their...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -7 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @15:30. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last three blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Three “Ps”

If you played poker once a month and your opponents played every day, who is more likely to win? The same applies to golf, tennis, chess, and trading. 

While we don’t have a single opponent in trading we do have someone on the other side of our trade betting we’re wrong. Might they be a better trader? 

Practice, practice, practice. The key to excelling at anything you do is repetition....

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to -7 with Asia Bearish and Europe mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the close. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last two blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Think Long Term

Long term thinking doesn’t mean you should have a trade plan that only takes long term trades. It means the results in the short term are not relevant. What is relevant is your overall success. 

This is a tough pill to swallow for the short term trader. Some have daily or weekly income goals. They’re thinking short term. But how do they handle a few losing days or weeks in a row? 

A great analogy comes from poker champion...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility lower. 

Catalysts: S&P Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read yesterday’s blog now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable to traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #2 Big Wins Vanish

Trading results, just like poker results, cycle between winning streaks, losing streaks, and flat periods where wins and loses cancel each other out. Let’s focus on winning streaks today. 

Whether it’s one monster winning trade or a series of winning trades, you’ll likely start to feel invincible. It will last for a period in which you won’t even think about the losing streaks or flat periods when it took all the...