Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -50 to +43 with most of the world Bullish on falling volatility.  

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today. 

Quick Tip: Stay Open

If you’re always “right” then you’ll never be open minded enough to change for the better. Being flexible and open-minded to new ideas is a huge advantage in trading. 

I’m not saying you simply agree with every new idea you hear. I’m saying that when you’re presented with an intriguing idea (setup, rule, etc.) you owe it to yourself to investigate the value of it. And if you find improvement, then accept the change. 

I was told the great investor George Soros wrote in his book about a trade he took in the Japanese Yen. It ended up a monster winner. His first entry was short based on his analysis. It failed quickly so he doubled his size and went...

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +79 to -50 with renewed selling and sticky volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Fed’s Barkin @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: Try Waiting 

Successful trading skills are very different in many cases than how we’ve been conditioned to believe and behave. We were all taught to work hard and smart to control the outcome of our efforts. In trading we cannot control whether we win or lose but we can control how much we lose. 

Some market conditions are more difficult than others to even control the losses! What’s the solution? 

Here’s some advice from arguably one of the best traders in history, Jim Rogers. 

He said “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I must do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the...

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -7 to +79 with all thoughts of the correction vanishing. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Collins @ 12:00. 10-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Change It

Popular trader psychologist and author Brett Steenbarger said, “The greatest enemy of change is routine.” 

I had to stop and think about this. Over the years I’ve learned that routines are healthy. They are habits and assuming they’re good for you, they’re important to have. I started a morning routine, a pre-trading routine, a midday routine, and a nighttime routine. 

So now I’m being advised to change all that? 

Not at all. Steenbarger was referring to the time you spend between your routines, in particular while trading. The pre-trading routine is important. Keep it. 

But don’t go on...

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -100 to -7 with mixed world sentiment on stabler volatility. Tokyo +10%. 

Catalysts: Trade Balance @ 8:30. Dip buyers testing the water. 

Quick Tip: See the Big Picture

Traders can often get caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations of the market, much like people who live their lives without pausing to reflect. 

In Larry Wilson’s book, Play to Win: Choosing Growth Over Fear in Work and Life, he emphasizes the importance of stepping back and seeing the bigger picture to make better-informed decisions. 

For day traders, this means taking a break from the extreme volatility yesterday and understanding the cause(s). 

Wilson also teaches us about the two life orientations that you must choose between.

1. Play to win.

2. Playing not to lose. 

What’s the difference? 

People who have a ...

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Trade Aptitude

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -86 to -100 with all major world markets very Bearish on massive volatility. 

Catalysts: Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Global equities selloff accelerates. Tokyo enters Bear Market. 

Quick Tip: Down Fast

In its simplest form trading is nothing more than risking money to make money. You need to be a net winner. This will happen if your losses are kept “small” (that’s a relative word) and you have…

1. More winning than losing events and/or 

2. Larger winners than losers. 

Successful traders look for asymmetrical trades. These are trades where the risk is small compared to the potential gains. 

One application for asymmetry is frequently overlooked. Trade direction. Evidence shows that prices tend to fall faster than they rise. Why is this? Fear can...

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Trade Aptitude

trade planning Aug 02, 2024

 

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Trade Aptitude

psychology Aug 01, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +86 to -50 with all major world markets Bearish except the USA with tech leading the way. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI and Construction Spending @ 10:00. AAPL & AMZN earnings after the bell. 

Quick Tip: Three Facts

Most of your success in trading will come from your ability to manage your psychology about winning and losing and being right or wrong. Unfortunately, we’ve all been raised to believe that winning is good, losing is bad, being right is good, being wrong is bad. The market is different. 

One of my favorite books on trading is Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van Tharp. He gets this game from a psychological perspective really well. 

Here are three facts about trading success he uncovered in his research of successful traders/investors. They...

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Trade Aptitude

psychology trade planning Jul 31, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -7 to +86 with all major world markets strongly Bullish. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30. META reports after the close. BOJ raises rates.

Quick Tip: Disqualifying 

Traditional work (your job) makes becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, but because it instills a belief that is NOT helpful in trading. 

What is it? Always doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on this.” Or “Wednesdays are difficult days to get anything done, so I’m going to loaf.” 

In trading NOT entering a trade is not only OK it’s ...

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Trade Aptitude

 

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Trade Aptitude

trade planning Jul 29, 2024

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +36 with most world markets Bullish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today. Big tech earnings & FOMC later in the week promise action.  

Quick Tip: Market Diversification

Market conditions constantly change. Hopefully you’ve perfected a few different strategies that align with the different Market States (trend and volatility).

One of the most effective ways to improve your performance is to trade a diverse range of markets. Include as many as are affordable in your portfolio given your account size. You certainly won’t trade every signal so make your first pre-trade decision in your plan “Market Selection.” 

Here’s an example: Our day trading room currently focuses on the S&P, oil & gold futures markets. We have strategies for each of the market states. At any given time, the...

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