Results of Thrusday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 4133.50 was cancelled due to the economic news release volatility nearing 08:30 ET. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4029.75 stop 4024.25. Short 4146.00 stop 4151.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +21 to -64 with all major world markets bearish on rising volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes.  

Catalysts: Import Prices @ 8:30. Fed’s Bowman @ 8:45. 

Quick Tip: Pre-Paying

Before online retailing we went to a brick-and-mortar store. We saw, touched, used and/or fitted the merchandise. Then we decided and paid. Very safe, the sequence of paying afterward. 

I recall the first time I wanted to buy shoes online. I couldn’t do it. I wanted to try them on, feel the fit, look in the mirror, and ...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Shorting 4143.25 offered 16.75 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4133.50 stop 4127.75. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25 (Both trades are cancelled for the 8:30 ET economic news). 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) LIFTS from -14 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes.  

Catalysts: PPI, Philly Fed MFG, Jobless Claims & Housing Starts @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: How to Wait

Position and swing traders are naturally patient people. They must be. Their trades last days, weeks, months, maybe years. In fact, they probably chose the longer duration styles because they fit their personalities well. 

Day traders likely chose the short duration trades because they wanted to see faster results (self-included)....

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: No trades were offered pre-CPI, and nothing triggered afterward.  

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4089.75 stop 4084.25. Short 4143.25 stop 4147.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) FALLS from +29 to -14 in a world of mixed sentiment. Historically price closed higher from the open 63% of the time.

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Trade Less 

Doctors heal. Lawyers argue. Artists create. In those and other professions if you’re not doing something you’re not productive.  

The same doesn’t apply to Traders, however. You don’t have to trade all the time to be a productive, successful Trader. You don’t have to...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested short @ 4157.00 triggered during the Globex this morning @ 5:45 ET. This trade is filtered out due to the CPI announcement @ 8:30 (the volatility is predictable, but the direction is definitely not).

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Holding off on selecting the turning points until the CPI is released and the volatility is assessed. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) RISES from +21 to +29 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically price closed down from the open 56% of the time with drops averaging 50% more than rises.   

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. FOMC members speaking @ 11:00, 11:30 & 14:05. 

Quick Tip: Lethal Bias 

Have you ever looked at your trade result and said to yourself “If had a bigger stop it would have been a winner” or “If I...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered during a narrow range day. They remain active. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4029.75 stop 4024.25. Short 4157.00 stop 4161.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -57 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes.  

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar, waiting on CPI tomorrow. 

Quick Tip: Adapting

Markets change character. They trend until they don’t. Volatility cycles. This means you must adapt your rules to these changes. 

But how? By re-framing your thinking about trade outcomes. Instead of allowing losers to give you negative feelings and winners to give you positive feelings, re-frame both outcomes into learning events. 

...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The buy @ 4131.50 offered 10.50 points.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4029.75 stop 4024.25. Short 4157.00 stop 4161.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +71 to -57 with all major world markets except Tokyo very Bearish on higher volatility. Historically price has closed down from the open 73% of the time. 

Catalysts: Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations @ 10:00. Oil soars on Russian production threat. 

Quick Tip: Sequencing 

If trading is 80% psychological that leaves 20% to the edge your strategy has. We really don’t know if the 80% figure is accurate but you’ll hear a big number like that from many skilled traders and coaches. Regardless the accuracy, how we behave as traders is vitally important. 

Back when racquetball was popular I...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4131.50 stop 4126.50. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from zero to +71 with all major world markets except Tokyo very bullish on higher volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes but the up closes are much greater than the down closes are lower. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Nothing else obvious.  

Quick Tip: This is Real

ChatGPT is certainly amazing technology. I don’t use it to write this blog, which it can do, but I do use it for research, much like you would use a search engine. 

For example, today I wanted to find a fresh quotation or two about trading psychology by well-known authors Brett Steenbarger, Mark Douglas, and...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The short @ 4146.00 was cancelled due to the volatility from Powell’s comments @ 12:40 ET. As mentioned in Monday’s blog, “…pass on reversals in strong trending days…”.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4114.25 stop 4009.75. Short 4146.00 stop 4206.50 stop 4212.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DIPS from +21 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes.  

Catalysts: International Trade @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. FOMC members speaking @ 9:15, 9:30, 10:00, 12:30 & 13:45. Takeaway from Powell yesterday: “Inflation will take ‘significant time’ to come down.”   

Quick Tip: Power in Confluence

You have a trade plan with specific rules of entry...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered on a narrow range day. They remain on the chart for today. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4081.00 stop 4076.00. Short 4146.00 stop 4151.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -57 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically it’s a coin toss which way price closes.  

Catalysts: International Trade @ 8:30. Powell speaks @ 12:00. Higher interest rate peak possible.  

Quick Tip: Outcome Bias  

Caring about whether your current trade is a winner or loser is counterproductive. It encourages emotional reaction. You should be trading a strategy that has proven edge and that gives you the probability of the outcome over many trades. No reason to be concerned about any one or even any series of trades...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 4134.50 didn’t trigger until the Globex opened on Sunday night running a modest 8.50-points. The breakout short from the level was the better trade, currently open with 21-points MFE.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4081.00 stop 4076.00. Short 4146.00 stop 4151.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DUMPS from -29 to -57 with most major world markets firmly Bearish. Historically the price has closed lower 73% of the time.  

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Friday’s employment report spooked the Bulls. Geo tension with China.  

Quick Tip: Breakouts  

The suggested Turning Points in this blog are derived from extreme volume at price. Think of those price ranges as “fair value.” Plenty of buyers and sellers...