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esterday’s results: No trades suggested.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No takeable turning points today.
The World Index: (+100/-100) fades from +71 to +36 with China/HK dragging the index down after the election results.
Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Election results.
Quick Tip: What’s Next?
The election is called earlier than expected. The market soared last night. S&P 500 @ 6000 is nearby. What is your plan? Stay long, hedge, go flat, or short?
Evidence from an analysis of stock market returns since 1926 done by Schroders.com might help:
1. Of the 1,176 months since January 1926, the market was at an all-time high in 354 of them, 30% of the time.
2. 12-month returns following an all-time high being hit have been better than at other times: 10.3% ahead of inflation compared with 8.6% when the market wasn’t at a high.
3. $100 invested in the US stock market in January 1926 would be worth $85,008 at the end of 2023 in inflation-adjusted terms, growth of 7.1% a year. In contrast, a strategy which switched out of the market and into cash for the next month whenever the market hit an all-time high (and went back in again whenever it wasn’t at one) would only be worth $8,790. 90% lower!
With that in mind, I’ll add a fifth choice to the question above. Buy more?
Our trading teams focus on multiple strategies for day trading futures and high-probability candidates for swing trading options. Maybe you'll fit right in. You can try either or both risk-free.
Trade Fearlessly,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. Feel free to pass this along to your trading buddies. Share in the wealth!
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