One Tough Lesson by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered, and they remain on the chart today.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6017.25 stop 6012.25. Short 6013.00 stop 6018.00 if price retraces up from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +14 to +57 with all major world markets Bullish on increasing volatility. The S&P Futures are not participating yet.
Catalysts: JOLTS @ 10:00. Fed’s Kugler @ 12:35, Goolsbee @ 3:45.
Quick Tip: One Tough Lesson
If you’re a discretionary trader intuitively making entry and exit decisions and you’re successful, congratulations! You are a rare breed. It’s not that discretionary trading doesn’t work, it’s that to succeed takes years to hone your skills.
This leaves rule-based trading as the best alternative for developing trading skills and success for the vast majority. It seems so simple. Find a proven strategy with edge. Follow the...
Abundance Mindset by Trade Aptitude
Friday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered and they remain on the chart today.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6017.25 stop 6012.25. Short 6013.00 stop 6018.00 if price retraces up from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -7 to +14 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility.
Catalysts: S&P Global MFG PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & Prices @ 10:00. Fed’s Waller @ 15:15 and Williams @ 16:30.
Quick Tip: Abundance Mindset
You probably noticed that the Turning Points shared here frequently don’t trigger. Sometimes a few days can go by without a trade.
You may be thinking, “This is not enough action for me.”
On the contrary, this strategy provides far more setups than are freely shared, we’re just trying to get acquainted! Add in the reversal and momentum strategies and there are dozens of opportunities every day in our live futures...
Confront Reality
Yesterday’s results: No suggestions offered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6017.25 stop 6012.25. Short 6013.00 stop 6018.00 if price retraces up from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps -7 to +21 with sentiment mixed on low volatility.
Catalysts: No known catalysts today.
Quick Tip: Confront Reality
How is your trading going? That’s a question you should be asking yourself on a regular basis. Think hard, be critical, answer honestly. And don’t worry about talking to yourself, we all learned that it’s OK during Covid lockdown.
What you’ll find when you question your results critically are some trailheads for improvement. It might be as subtle as the quality of your record keeping or the consistency of your pre-trading routine.
Or it could be as important as the quality of your strategies. Are they firing on all cylinders? Are you in a drawdown, or close to one?...
Being Grateful by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: No suggestions offered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No great levels today.
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -29 to -7 with China/HK the only Bulls.
Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Trade Balance @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.
Quick Tip: Being Grateful
Thanksgiving is the holiday that reminds all of us to practice gratitude. However, plenty of research has been done that proves we should be grateful more often. Like daily.
The list of benefits is long and in all cases will improve your trading performance!
1. Reduced anxiety.
2. Improves your ability to handle stress.
3. Increase happiness.
4. Improve relationships.
5. Boost productivity and goal achievement.
6. Increase positive emotions.
That’s an...
Big Picture by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Shorting 6035.50 stopped out. Buying 5988.00 offered 8.25 points before reversing.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No great levels today.
The World Index: (+100/-100) falls from +21 to -29 with most major world markets mildly Bearish on low volatility. S&P futures slightly higher.
Catalysts: S&P Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00.
Quick Tip: Big Picture
Regardless of your trading timeframe, daily, swing, or position, using a “big picture” analysis to your entry decision adds edge. It’s the higher timeframe.
Traditional technical analysis suggests that a multiple of 3 to 6 is appropriate. For example, if you’re a day trader using a 5-minute chart for your entry, aligning with the trend of the 15- or 30-minute chart will help. A swing trader using...
Consistency by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5988.00 stop 5982.75. Short 6035.00 stop 6038.25.
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from zero to +21 with world markets neutral and the US firmly Bullish.
Catalysts: Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. The market welcomes Bessent as Treasury Secretary.
Quick Tip: Consistency
Here’s an important quote from Dr. Brett Steenbarger, author of many books on trader psychology and an accomplished S&P futures day trader.
“You are most likely to become consistent IN your trading if you are consistent in working ON your trading.”
How? Preparation and review. Sports teams do this. Prepare for the opponent, play the game, watch the game videos
Are you preparing enough for your trading session? Are you assessing current market conditions and adjusting your expectations to what is probable?
Steenbarger...
Simplify by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Buying 5909.50 picked the bottom of the session and ran 66 points to the suggested short at 5975.50, which only offered a 6.25-point scalp. 
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 6002.25 stop 6007.75. Buy 6007.00 stop 6001.50 if price retraces down from above.
The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +29 to zero with sentiment mixed and volatility low.
Catalysts: S&P MFG & Services PMI Flash @ 9:45. UofM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations @ 10:00.
Quick Tip: Simplify
One of our trading teams, the stock/options swing traders, uses a long-only strategy that has extreme asymmetrical results. The risks are very low. The rewards are sometimes parabolic.
While there are dozens of options strategies you could use, why complicate your plan? Simple call option buys work fantastically with these trades because the real edge comes from...
New Paradigm by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Buying 5889.75 was only good for a 5-point scalp. The short idea didn’t trigger.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5909.50 stop 5904.75. Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25.
The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +29 to zero with sentiment mixed and volatility low.
Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Hammack @ 8:45, Goolsbee @ 12:25, Hammack @ 12:30, Barr @ 16:40. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00.
Quick Tip: New Paradigm
What are your beliefs about successful trading? How have you been taught?
Technical analysis? – “All I need is a good indicator or two to be a winner, history repeats itself enough for me.” That’s OK.
Fundamental analysis? – “Indicators are lagging, I want to study and KNOW the asset I’m trading to predict the future with confidence.” That’s OK too.
Chart analysis? ...
Rightness by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: The suggested short didn’t trigger. No long was suggested.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5889.75 stop 5885.75. Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25.
The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -21 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility.
Catalysts: Fed’s Barr @ 10:00, Cook @ 11:00 & Bowman @ 12:15. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. NVDA earnings after the close.
Quick Tip: Rightness
We have an innate desire to be right. Being wrong is the equivalent of failure. But in trading this shouldn’t matter. We obviously can’t control the market or perfectly predict the future. The best we can do is decide in advance how much profit or loss we’ll accept.
The late Mark Douglas, author of Trading in the Zone, said "When you achieve complete acceptance of the uncertainty of each edge and the uniqueness of each moment,...
Art in Exits by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Buying 5895.50 picked the bottom of the session and ran for 37.50 points before closing the day +25.50. The short idea didn’t trigger.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 5975.50 stop 5981.25. No long suggestion today.
The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -14 to -21 with Asia mildly Bullish and the west firmly Bearish.
Catalysts: Building Permits/Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Schmid @ 13:10. Ukraine/Russia war escalation.
Quick Tip: Art in Exits
Dozens of different methods of trading can be profitable. If you doubt this statement you need to read any of Jack Schwager’s “Market Wizards” books.
In each book he interviews top traders from around the world. Dozens of them. What you’ll find is that almost every trader has a different take on how to trade. Some use technical indicators successfully. Others focus on algorithms. Still...