Friday’s results: Buying 5851.50 was only good for a 4.25-point scalp. The short idea didn’t trigger.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5847.75 stop 5842.25. Short 5904.50 stop 5909.50.
The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +14 to +36 with all major world markets neutral to mildly Bullish on low volatility.
Catalysts: Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30.
Quick Tip: Alpha Searching
Our day trading team meets every morning between 9:00 and 10:30 AM ET to swap ideas on trades across several strategies. Some days are very active, others quiet. Lately it seems the market has chopped sideways during our sessions and made the better moves later in the day.
As the host it’s challenging to find commentary when setups aren’t setting up!
For those that also swing trade options, there is plenty to talk about. Our swing trading team only meets once weekly but when you’re running a portfolio...
Yesterday’s results: Buying 5939.00 stopped out. The short suggestion didn’t trigger.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5851.50 stop 5846.25. Short 5904.50 stop 5909.50.
The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +7 to +14 with mixed sentiment on low volatility.
Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (revised) @ 10:00. Fed’s Collins @ 11:00. Final day of IMF meeting.
Quick Tip: Change It Up
Great performers, traders included, never quit when the inevitable roadblocks and challenges arise. They learn from their mistakes, adjust, and move forward.
You’re heard the term “reinvent yourself.” Out of favor actors do it. Corporations do it. Sometimes traders must do it.
Like many traders who enjoyed the Tech Bubble in the late ‘90’s, I was trading a momentum strategy that printed money. It was simple and easy. Even during...
Yesterday’s results: Shorting 5869.00 stopped out. The long suggestion didn’t trigger.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5939.00 stop 5834.25. Short 5895.00 stop 5998.25.
The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -14 to +7 with the East bearish and the West bullish.
Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Fed’s Hammack @ 8:45. S&P MFG/Service PMI Flash @ 9:45. New Home Sales @ 10:00.
Quick Tip: Update Your Plan
Your trade plan probably started out simple. You had rules for entry, exit, risk, position size, candidate selection, and some filters for changing market conditions. The historical performance was positive. Great start.
Once you started trading real money you likely encountered trade setups that didn’t make sense at the time. What to do? Grit your teeth and follow the rules? Pass on the trade?
You felt compelled to be a rule-based trader, but your growing experience...
Yesterday’s results: The suggested trade didn’t trigger.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.75 stop 5903.75 if price retraces back from above. Short 5869.00 stop 5873.00 if price retraces back from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -29 to -14 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility.
Catalysts: Fed’s Bowman @ 9:00, Barkin @ 12:00. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Beige Book @ 14:00. TSLA earnings after the close.
Quick Tip: Short Interest
Short interest is a great “off-the-price-chart” indicator you can add to your research for stock and option trades. It’s the number of shares of a particular stock that have been sold short but have not yet been bought back (closed).
If short interest is high, it suggests bearish sentiment and an unusually low short interest suggests bullish...
Yesterday’s results: Buying 5867.75 picked the bottom of the session and ran for 29.75 points at the close.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.75 stop 5903.75 if price retraces back from above. No short suggestion today.
The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -36 to -29 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility.
Catalysts: Richmond MFG Index & Fed’s Harker @ 10:00. BRICS Summit starts, IMF day 2.
Quick Tip: Fear Not
Looking at the chart above how price was approaching the buy level you might feel like you were stepping in front of a freight train. Confidence in your strategy is required.
Of course, since you knew the entry well beforehand a set/forget order would have been a good solution to any fear you might have watching price approach live.
The stats should help with your fear as well. This strategy has a history over 5000 trades, stopping out...
Friday’s results: Buying 5908.50 on the breakout was only good for a 4-point scalp.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5867.75 stop 5864.00. Short 5864.75 stop 5868.50 if price retraces up from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +43 to -36 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility.
Catalysts: FOMC Speakers; Logan @ 8:55, Kashkari @ 13:00. IMF Meeting starts.
Quick Tip: Belief #1
Success at trading, at anything, is formulaic. No one stays successful at anything without a proven formula to follow. What’s yours?
You may think it’s your trade plan. You may think you need the hottest strategies, the best broker, more risk capital, and better sources of information. All that surely helps but the foundation for your success starts within you. It’s your belief.
Do you honestly believe you can become a top-notch trader? Or are you thinking of giving it a...
Yesterday’s results: Buying 5888.50 picked the bottom of the session and ran for 25 points.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.50 stop 5904.25 if price retraces down from above. Short 5864.75 stop 5868.50 if price retraces up from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from zero to +43 with most of the world Bullish. Asia up strong.
Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Waller @ 12:10.
Quick Tip: Dividend Plays? Really?
As traders we’re usually focused on capital gains, not holding stocks over the long term and collecting dividends. However, having a dividend producing portfolio is a fabulous way to balance your wealth growth relative to the ups and downs of active trading.
John Bogle, founder of Vanguard Group, said “Over the long run, it is dividends, and dividends alone, that account for the lion’s share of stock market returns."
...
Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5888.50 stop 5884.50. Short 5885.25 stop 5889.25 if price retraces from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -36 to zero with mixed sentiment, the east is Bearish, the west is Bullish on increasing volatility.
Catalysts: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories, Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 11:00. Janet Yellen (tentative).
Quick Tip: Easy Options
Having a small account shouldn’t prevent you from swing trading stocks. Your solution is to substitute options. With over 700 stocks that have liquid options you have an abundance of choice.
Plenty of new traders shy away from options. Their perception is they’re complex and hard to learn. They can be complex, and they can be...
Yesterday’s results: Buying 5861.25 offered a 4-point scalp. Shorting 5859.00 offered a 6.75-point scalp.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5823.25 stop 5820.00. Short 5908.50 stop 5912.25.
The World Index: (+100/-100) slides from -29 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish on modest volatility.
Catalysts: Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Earnings continue (individual stocks can have a big market impact, consider ASML/NVDA yesterday).
Quick Tip: Invisible Demand
All markets are influenced by the forces of supply and demand. More demand than supply will push the markets higher. This natural law works on every tradable asset.
But is all demand visible on a price chart? For indexes, currencies, and commodities, I would argue yes. They are mostly institutional markets, and the footprints large traders leave can be found. Our team trades a chart-based Supply/Demand strategy that has a real...
Yesterday’s results: No trades triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5861.25 stop 5858.25. Short 5859.00 stop 5862.00 if price retraces up from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) falls from +21 to -29 with mixed sentiment, China/HK down firmly.
Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Daly @ 11:30, Kugler @ 13:00. Contrarian Alert: VIX near 20 is unusual at new highs.
Quick Tip: VIX Explained
Have you ever heard of the stock market's “fear gauge”? That’s a nickname for the VIX, or Volatility Index. The VIX helps us understand how much uncertainty or risk there is in the market at any given time.
It measures how volatile the stock market is expected to be over the next 30 days. In other words, it shows how much the prices of stocks might swing up or down. The more the market is expected to move, the higher the VIX goes.
It's often called the "fear...
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