Manipulation by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: No trades triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 5954.50 stop 5960.25. Buy 5965.25 stop 5959.50 if price retraces down from above. (Filtered out during PCE release).
The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from -50 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.
Catalysts: PCE, Personal Income & Spending and Fed’s Williams @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised).
Quick Tip: Manipulation
Courtesy of the WSJ newsletter – “On December 19, 1868, Cornelius Vanderbilt bought additional shares of the New York Central Railroad. He then convened an emergency meeting of the board of directors, which declared an 80% dividend. The stock shot up over the next two days, at which point Vanderbilt dumped his new shares for a $5.5 million profit.”
Today we have the SEC and regulations to prevent blatant manipulation like Vanderbilt did. But...
Lead or Lag? by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: No trades suggested.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5909.50 stop 5904.75. Short 6134.25 stop 6138.50.
The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +36 to -50 with most major world markets Bearish on rising volatility.
Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Kansas City Fed MFG Index @ 11:00.
Quick Tip: Lead or Lag?
The never-ending challenge in trading is forecasting future price direction using lagging information from technical indicators. Better than nothing but you can do even better.
Significant research has proven that there are two Leading Indicators of price that are not on the chart. Insider buying and Unusual Options Activity.
Combining the two is the perfect addition to your stock/options trading plan. Learn how in our free training session. Click here.
Trade fearlessly,
Mike Siewruk
...
Trading FOMC by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: No trades suggested.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6155 stop 6150.75 if price retraces down from above. No short level today. (Filtered out during FOMC volatility).
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish on mild volatility.
Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30.
Quick Tip: Trading FOMC
The pattern tends to be range-bound before the announcement and volatile during and afterward. This should help with your trade selection and planning. In fact, if you have solid historical data on your strategy’s performance during FOMC day that is negative, not trading at all may make sense.
The announcement releases at 2PM ET. You might think the highest volatility is within the 30-minute interval afterward. Historically, it’s the next 30-minute...
What's Harder? by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: No trades suggested.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 6098.25 stop 6094.25. Short 6095.00 stop 6099.00 if price retraces up from below.
The World Index: (+100/-100) lifts from -29 to -14 with sentiment mixed on low volatility.
Catalysts: Retail Sales @ 8:30. Capacity Utilization & Industrial Production @ 9:15. Housing Market Index @ 10:00. 20-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00.
Quick Tip: What’s Harder?
Think for a moment before you answer this question. Do you find it harder to take a loss or a profit?
The answer says a lot about your trade plan, style, trading psychology, and what you need to work on.
If your answer was a loss, then your risk management plan needs help. You might be trading the wrong strategy, possibly one with more losers than you can accept or large losers.
If your answer was a profit, then your risk management is fine, but your open trade management needs...
Futures Rollover by Trade Aptitude
Friday’s results: No trades suggested.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No new levels today due to contract rollover.
The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -7 to -29 with most major world markets mildly Bearish on lower volatility.
Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. S&P Global MFG & Services PMI Flash @ 9:45.
Quick Tip: Futures Rollover
Futures contracts are buy/sell agreements between two parties. Every contract has a delivery date at which point the transaction ends and goods/money are exchanged.
Many futures traders have no intention of fulfilling their contractual obligations. They’re either speculating on price direction. For these traders exiting the current contract before the delivery date and entering the next contract further out on the calendar is called rollover.
For stock index futures the rollover is quarterly near the middle of March, June, September and...
Your Mindset by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Neither trade triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No suggested levels today.
The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 top -7 with Asia Bearish and the west Bullish.
Catalysts: Import/Export Prices @ 8:30.
Quick Tip: Your Mindset
Much research has proven that your mindset affects outcome. If you think positive you’re likely to behave positively and cause a desirable outcome. Vice versa for negative thoughts and outcomes.
Today being Friday the 13th, I thought it would be interesting to uncover some research on market outcomes for today.
Two notable research projects on what is called the Friday the 13th Effect on financial markets were found. One study by Donald B. Keim and Robert F. Stambaugh in 1984 found that stock returns on Friday the 13th were significantly lower than on other Fridays. Conversely, a more recent analysis by Bespoke Investment Group...
Be Committed by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Shorting 6091.75 stopped out. The long idea didn’t trigger.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 6061.00 stop 6065.00 if price retraces up from below. Buy 6098.25 stop 6094.25 if price retraces down from above.
The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -7 to +36 with all major world markets neutral to Bullish. The S&P Futures are slightly down.
Catalysts: PPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-year Bond Auction @ 13:00.
Quick Tip: Be Committed
If you’re relatively new to trading you’ve probably experienced overwhelm from all the choices and decisions you must make.
Which asset class to trade?
What timeframe?
Which broker?
Whose strategy to follow?
How much to risk?
The list is long. After guiding more than 4000 new traders through the process of making these decisions over the past 18 years I’ve found there is a hierarchy to these...
Off The Chart by Trade Aptitude
Yesterday’s results: Neither trade suggestion triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 6091.75 stop 6095.25. Buy 6017.25 stop 6012.25 (filtered out during CPI release volatility).
The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -7 with sentiment mixed on very low volatility.
Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 10-year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Federal Budget Balance @ 14:00.
Quick Tip: Off The Chart
All markets are influenced by the forces of supply and demand. More demand than supply will push the markets higher. This natural law works on every tradable asset.
But is all demand visible on a price chart? For indexes, currencies, and commodities, I would argue yes. They are mostly institutional markets, and the footprints large traders leave can be found. Our team trades a chart-based Supply/Demand strategy that has a real edge.
For individual stocks I would argue yes, but not always....
Yesterday’s results: No trades suggested.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 6091.75 stop 6095.25. Buy 6094.50 stop 6091 if price retraces down from above.
The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from +21 to -7 with sentiment mixed on low volatility.
Catalysts: Revised Non-Farm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs @ 8:30.
Quick Tip: Fear No More
Fear paralyzes progress in anything you do. In trading, there are 5 types of fear. Recognizing you’re susceptible to them is the first step to a solution.
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) – you can’t tolerate watching a winning trade from the sidelines. This breeds impulsivity. Solution: Have an abundance of trade opportunities using multiple strategies tuned to different market conditions.
Fear of Loss – you still feel upset about losing money. Solution: Lower your risk and find a strategy you have confidence in by practicing...
Synergy by Trade Aptitude
Friday’s results: Neither trade triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No tradeable levels today.
The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from +36 to +21 with most major world markets modestly Bullish on low volatility.
Catalysts: NY Fed Inflation Expectations @ 11:00.
Quick Tip: Synergy
Earnings season is almost over. Generally, stocks that beat expectations will rise and vice versa. Your portfolio will likely have winners and losers. If all you look at is the total value you’re missing opportunity.
You should be asking yourself how you’re going to manage each position. Being proactive and planning will get you the calm confidence to execute without doubt.
Most skilled traders will have profit targets and stop losses for each position. You can be more sophisticated though. Do you have “time” stops? Add-on price levels? Are you selling puts to buy more, or calls to capture extra income?
If...