For Wed 210818 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Range-bound session with one takeable trade stopping out.

Day Session Analysis: Mixed sentiment. Mixed stats. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Looking to trade either direction limited to acceptable reward/risk. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4442/4447.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4434.50/4440.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) jumps from -57 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment. Asia bullish, western world blasé. (modest short edge).

Catalysts: Housing Starts @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00 (important since Powell wasn’t clear about...

For Tue 210817 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Picture perfect! Shorting 4472 ran smoothly to the next level for a 22.25-point gain. Buying the reversal 4449.75 established the Globex low and ran for 9.00 points (still open). Both were set/forget opportunities.

Day Session Analysis: Once again, Charts & Sentiment look bearish. Stats suggest “buy the dip.” ATR is now rising, as suggested yesterday. There is plenty of room between key institutional volume levels so trading in either direction makes sense. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels for ladders on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4435.50/4438.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4460.25/4461 (open below = short edge, open...

For Mon 210816 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Mildly bearish. No takeable trades (based on R/R) but the levels did produce 3 of 4 winners including the Globex low.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & Sentiment looks bearish. Stats suggest “buy the dip.” ATR is falling again and that means higher volatility is coming (when is a bad guess, however if this market tanks today picking bottoms is a bad idea and jumping in short makes sense). Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels for the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4457.50/4460.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4458/4460 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) plummets from zero to -57 with all major...

For Fri 210813 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest range trading or melt-up slowly again. Stats show shorts should work modestly better than longs. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Looking to get long using Volume Profile and avoid the congested levels below (until they come off the chart). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels for the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4453/4455.50. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4446.75/4447.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) rises from -14 to zero in a world of mixed, low volatility sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Covid Delta worsens. Oil demand likely to drop (China closes busy...

For Thu 210812 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest range trading or melt-up slowly. Stats show shorts should work modestly better than longs. Jobless Claims & PPI @ 8:30 should guide direction for the day. Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels to start a ladder on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4437.25/4441. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4435/4437.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) drops from +14 to -14 in a world of mixed bearish-leaning sentiment (modest long edge).

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & PPI @ 8:30. A good Jobless Claims report will nudge the Fed toward easing monetary...

For Wed 210811 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Day Session Analysis: Mixed signals on direction. CPI @ 8:30 should guide direction for the day. Could be big moves in either direction or another relatively narrow choppy range day. Willing to trade in either direction Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4427/4430.75. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4428/4429.25 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/100) drops from +50 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (modest short edge).

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. Washington settles on spending Bill. Cryptos see nothing but bad news and still trade higher. 

Trends:...

For Tue 210810 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Day Session Analysis: Mixed signals on direction. Expecting another relatively narrow choppy range day. Willing to trade in either direction. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels to start a ladder on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4425/4426.50. We’re trading WITHIN the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and AVOVE the equilibrium 4423.75/4425 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/100) soars from +7 to +50 with all major world markets bullish except the S&P futures which are flat (short edge).

Catalysts: Maybe Productivity & Costs @ 8:30. Covid Delta proliferates, now in the USA. Infrastructure Bill passage looks promising. COIN reports @ 16:00.

Trends: 60 min UP forming a...

For Mon 210809 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Picture perfect with 2 trades triggered, both going level-to-level cleanly for 16.50 points each. Currently modestly lower coming to the open.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment says range-bound or down, stats say UP. Willing to trade in either direction. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4428/4430.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4426.25/4428 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/100) remains at +7 in a world of mixed, low-volatility sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Maybe JOLTS @ 10:00. Covid Delta still the fly in the ointment. Oil under pressure as Asia battles Coved outbreaks...

For Fri 210806 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price drifted to new highs. No trades triggered.

Day Session Analysis: Looks like a melt-up to new highs. World sentiment is MIXED with lower volatility. The Employment Report should determine the early direction. Willing to trade in either direction. May not get a buy signal today unless we see a drop to 4413.75. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW (leaning Bull Put for now).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4411/4413.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the Equilibrium of 4412.50/4415 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/100) eases up from zero to +7 in a world of mixed, low-volatility sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Employment...

For Thu 210805 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Once again, narrow range and an EXACT repeat of yesterday… one trade taken shorting the CPL, getting T1 and stopping out the balance. CPL came off the chart so the short at 4409 (includes yesterday’s high) is ON until the day session starts (missed entry by one tick and ran for 6+ points so far).

Day Session Analysis: Looking like a repeat of yesterday. Daily chart in a range, hourly as well. World sentiment is MIXED with lower volatility. Jobless Claims should determine the early direction. Willing to trade in either direction, mindful of potential reversals in the big picture range-bound chart. Taking quicker profit than usual until (if) a trend breaks intraday. Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Passing on the Volume Profile strategy today would be sensible from a probability standpoint....