The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210806 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Price drifted to new highs. No trades triggered.

Day Session Analysis: Looks like a melt-up to new highs. World sentiment is MIXED with lower volatility. The Employment Report should determine the early direction. Willing to trade in either direction. May not get a buy signal today unless we see a drop to 4413.75. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW (leaning Bull Put for now).

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4411/4413.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the Equilibrium of 4412.50/4415 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/100) eases up from zero to +7 in a world of mixed, low-volatility sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Employment Situation @ 8:30. Job growth = good for economy, bad for continued Fed bond buying. Which way will price go? Corporate America acknowledging Covid Delta with reduction of back-to-office working.

Trends: 60 min UP, daily UP (short edge).

Chart: High outside day (short edge). Stat update shows SHORTS modestly outperforming LONGS (points earned). Opening flat (no edge). $TRIN XMA drops to 1.15 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 9.25 suggests a day session range around 16 points (Employment report should change that) on a FALLING ATR of 36.20. Prior forecast around 28 points, actual 20.75.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Better yet... trade with a team full of experience. Watch this video to learn more.