The Daily Market Forecast

For Tue 210817 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Picture perfect! Shorting 4472 ran smoothly to the next level for a 22.25-point gain. Buying the reversal 4449.75 established the Globex low and ran for 9.00 points (still open). Both were set/forget opportunities.

Day Session Analysis: Once again, Charts & Sentiment look bearish. Stats suggest “buy the dip.” ATR is now rising, as suggested yesterday. There is plenty of room between key institutional volume levels so trading in either direction makes sense. Tuesday (both sessions combined garnered 20% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels for ladders on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4435.50/4438.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4460.25/4461 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) remains locked at -57 with all major world markets bearish (long edge, which worked quite nicely yesterday).

Catalysts: Retail Sales @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Powell speaks @ 13:30. Covid Delta stats keep getting worse.

Trends: 60 min down, daily UP (long edge).

Chart: LOW outside day (short edge). Stat update shows LONGS are much better than SHORTS (points earned). Opening -0.47% (long edge). $TRIN XMA shows selling increasing at 1.14 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 25.25 suggests a day session range around 40 points on a RISING ATR of 26.75. Prior forecast around 20 points, actual 44.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.