The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210812 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest range trading or melt-up slowly. Stats show shorts should work modestly better than longs. Jobless Claims & PPI @ 8:30 should guide direction for the day. Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Consider not trading Volume Profile. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels to start a ladder on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4437.25/4441. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4435/4437.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) drops from +14 to -14 in a world of mixed bearish-leaning sentiment (modest long edge).

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & PPI @ 8:30. A good Jobless Claims report will nudge the Fed toward easing monetary stimulus.

Trends: 60 min UP, daily UP (short edge).

Chart: HIGH outside day (short edge). Stat update shows SHORTS are modestly better than LONGS (points earned). Opening barely up (no edge). $TRIN XMA drops to 1.00 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 8.50 suggests a day session range around 18 points on a FALLING ATR of 26.49. Prior forecast around 20 points, actual 12.50.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.