The Daily Market Forecast

For Thu 210805 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Once again, narrow range and an EXACT repeat of yesterday… one trade taken shorting the CPL, getting T1 and stopping out the balance. CPL came off the chart so the short at 4409 (includes yesterday’s high) is ON until the day session starts (missed entry by one tick and ran for 6+ points so far).

Day Session Analysis: Looking like a repeat of yesterday. Daily chart in a range, hourly as well. World sentiment is MIXED with lower volatility. Jobless Claims should determine the early direction. Willing to trade in either direction, mindful of potential reversals in the big picture range-bound chart. Taking quicker profit than usual until (if) a trend breaks intraday. Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Passing on the Volume Profile strategy today would be sensible from a probability standpoint. Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking to establish credit spread ladders on the SPXW expiring tomorrow.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4399.25/4403.50. We’re trading JUST ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and JUST ABOVE the Equilibrium 4398.25/4400.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/100) eases from +21 to zero in a world of mixed, low-volatility sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: International Trade & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Worries over China renewed (U.S. arms deal with Taiwan, regulatory moves on private sector). Covid Delta still relentless. HOOD is the new meme stock and why not? There would be no meme stocks without it.

Trends: 60 min in a range, daily now in a range (no edge, but it WILL break one way or the other eventually. Good setup).

Chart: Inside day (THIRD in a row if you ignore one tick above yesterday’s high). Stat update shows LONGS outperform SHORTS by about 50% (points earned). Opening +0.15% (modest short edge). $TRIN XMA moves up at 1.22, moving toward oversold (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 15 suggests a day session range around 28 points (Jobless claims may change that) on a FALLING ATR of 37.46. Prior forecast around 22 points, actual 17.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Better yet... trade with a team full of experience. Watch this video to learn more.