The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210809 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Picture perfect with 2 trades triggered, both going level-to-level cleanly for 16.50 points each. Currently modestly lower coming to the open.

Day Session Analysis: Sentiment says range-bound or down, stats say UP. Willing to trade in either direction. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4428/4430.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4426.25/4428 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/100) remains at +7 in a world of mixed, low-volatility sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Maybe JOLTS @ 10:00. Covid Delta still the fly in the ointment. Oil under pressure as Asia battles Coved outbreaks with potential economic repercussions.  Crypto tax rules unlikely in Infrastructure Bill (BTC/ETH going parabolic, watch COIN today, up 4.7% premarket).

Trends: 60 min forming a new wedge after breaking south last night, daily UP (short edge).

Chart: LOW outside day (long edge). Stat update shows LONGS crush SHORTS (points earned). Opening -0.14% (modest long edge). $TRIN XMA drops to 1.12 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 17.25 suggests a day session range around 31 points on a FALLING ATR of 32.94. Prior forecast around 16 points, actual 11.50.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Better yet... trade with a team full of experience. Watch this video to learn more.