The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210818 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Range-bound session with one takeable trade stopping out.

Day Session Analysis: Mixed sentiment. Mixed stats. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Looking to trade either direction limited to acceptable reward/risk. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4442/4447.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and WITHIN the equilibrium 4434.50/4440.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) jumps from -57 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment. Asia bullish, western world blasé. (modest short edge).

Catalysts: Housing Starts @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00 (important since Powell wasn’t clear about tapering yesterday). Afghan situation.  Eyes on China crypto crackdown.

Trends: 60 min rangebound forming a wedge, daily UP (no edge).

Chart: INSIDE day (short edge). Stat update shows LONGS offer 40% more points than SHORTS (although SHORTS are handsomely profitable as well). Opening flat (no edge). $TRIN XMA stable  at 1.14 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 16.25 suggests a day session range around 30 points on a RISING ATR of 31.49. Prior forecast around 40 points, actual 41.75.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.