The Daily Market Forecast

For Mon 210816 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Mildly bearish. No takeable trades (based on R/R) but the levels did produce 3 of 4 winners including the Globex low.

Day Session Analysis: Charts & Sentiment looks bearish. Stats suggest “buy the dip.” ATR is falling again and that means higher volatility is coming (when is a bad guess, however if this market tanks today picking bottoms is a bad idea and jumping in short makes sense). Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels for the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4457.50/4460.25. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and BELOW the equilibrium 4458/4460 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) plummets from zero to -57 with all major world markets leaning bearish (long edge).

Catalysts: Maybe the Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Risk “off” thinking after the fall of Afghanistan’s government, China’s slowing economic recovery, and Covid Delta persistence.

Trends: 60 min down, daily UP (long edge).

Chart: LOW outside day (short edge). Stat update shows LONGS are much better than SHORTS (points earned). Opening -0.33% (long edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 1.07 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 10.00 suggests a day session range around 20 points on a FALLING ATR of 24.10. Prior forecast around 18 points, actual 9.00 (not a typo).

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.