The Daily Market Forecast

For Fri 210813 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Day Session Analysis: Charts suggest range trading or melt-up slowly again. Stats show shorts should work modestly better than longs. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Looking to get long using Volume Profile and avoid the congested levels below (until they come off the chart). Trading ES/CL/GC using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels for the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4453/4455.50. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the equilibrium 4446.75/4447.50 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/+100) rises from -14 to zero in a world of mixed, low volatility sentiment (no edge).

Catalysts: Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Covid Delta worsens. Oil demand likely to drop (China closes busy port, shipping forecast down).

Trends: 60 min UP, daily UP (short edge).

Chart: HIGH outside day (short edge). Stat update shows SHORTS are modestly better than LONGS (points earned). Opening barely up (no edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 1.04 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 8.75 suggests a day session range around 18 points on a LEVELING ATR of 26.42. Prior forecast around 18 points, actual 26.00.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. For a free “mini-course” packed full of lessons on HOW to trade the Blog… Watch this video.