The Daily Market Forecast
For Fri 210806 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: Price drifted to new highs. No trades triggered.
Day Session Analysis: Looks like a melt-up to new highs. World sentiment is MIXED with lower volatility. The Employment Report should determine the early direction. Willing to trade in either direction. May not get a buy signal today unless we see a drop to 4413.75. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for good credit spread levels on the SPXW (leaning Bull Put for now).
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4411/4413.75. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the Equilibrium of 4412.50/4415 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).
The World Index (-100/100) eases up from zero to +7 in a world of mixed, low-volatility sentiment (no edge).
Catalysts: Employment...
The Daily Market Forecast
For Thu 210805 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: Once again, narrow range and an EXACT repeat of yesterday… one trade taken shorting the CPL, getting T1 and stopping out the balance. CPL came off the chart so the short at 4409 (includes yesterday’s high) is ON until the day session starts (missed entry by one tick and ran for 6+ points so far).
Day Session Analysis: Looking like a repeat of yesterday. Daily chart in a range, hourly as well. World sentiment is MIXED with lower volatility. Jobless Claims should determine the early direction. Willing to trade in either direction, mindful of potential reversals in the big picture range-bound chart. Taking quicker profit than usual until (if) a trend breaks intraday. Thursday (both sessions combined) garnered ONLY 4% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Breakouts (95%) crush Reversals (5%). Passing on the Volume Profile strategy today would be sensible from a probability standpoint....
The Daily Market Forecast
For Wed 210804 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
Globex Review: Very narrow range. One trade taken shorting the CPL, getting T1 and stopping out the balance. CPL came off the chart so the short at 4417 (includes yesterday’s high) is ON until the day session starts.
Day Session Analysis: All things considered, today looks range-bound. Daily chart in a range, hourly as well. World sentiment is MIXED. No market-moving economic reports. Willing to trade in either direction, mindful of potential reversals in the big picture range-bound chart. Taking quicker profit than usual until (if) a trend breaks intraday. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES Volume Profile, CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for credit spread opportunities on the SPXW.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4409/4414. We’re trading JUST BELOW the CPL (short edge below,...
The Daily Market Forecast
Globex Review: One trade taken running for 7.75 to capture two targets and then stop out the remainder on the pivot.
Day Session Analysis: Mixed evidence today. Daily chart in a range, hourly melting up. World sentiment is MIXED. No market-moving economic reports. Willing to trade in either direction, mindful of potential reversals in the big picture range-bound chart. Tuesday (both sessions combined) garnered 20% of all the gains (in dollars) over the past 5 years. Reversals and Breakouts are about even. Trading ES Volume Profile, CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking to establish a Credit Spread ladder on the SPXW.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4405.75/4409.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above).
The World Index (-100/100) fades from +67 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment (modest short edge).
Catalysts: Nothing big on the economic front. Chinese government crackdown on private enterprise extends to gaming stocks. Regulation =...
The Daily Market Forecast
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For Monday 210802 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)
The Mortgage Payment Trade is currently profitable both ways with SPY +1.95 and TLT -0.62.
Globex Review: Risk on. Asia made a strong comeback. One trade taken (short) with two targets in the bag before stopping out the final third.
Day Session Analysis: Mixed evidence today. Charts suggest continued melt-up. World sentiment is BULLISH but that historically brings out profit-takers. ISM MFG report @ 10:00 might help decide direction. Stats favor SHORTS running further than LONGS. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains (in dollars) over the past 5 years.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4386.25/4393.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above).
...
The Daily Market Forecast
Day Session Analysis:
World sentiment is BEARISH and that historically brings out Buy-The-Dippers. After falling 35.50 points (AMZN miss) price is trending up somewhat. Income reports @ 8:30 should help decide direction. Stats favor LONGS running further than SHORTS. Friday (both sessions combined) garnered 25% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (78%) crush Breakouts (22%). Trading CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for Credit Spread opportunities on the SPXW.
S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4411.25/4414.50. We’re trading BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above).
The World Index (-100/100) plummets from +64 to -64 with all major world markets bearish (long edge).
Catalysts: Personal Income & Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Fed-speak @ 9:00. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Covid Delta still relentless. AMZN and HOOD cant’ find the buyers. Possible brightside for AAPL owners, they borrowed $6.5B for...
The Daily Market Forecast
Day Session Analysis:
World sentiment is BULLISH and we’re near all-time highs. GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30 should decide direction. Stats favor shorts running further than longs.
S&P 500 Futures Critical Price Level: 4394/4398.50. We’re trading within/around/above the CPL (short edge below, long edge above).
The World Index (-100/100) jumps from +29 to +64 with all major world markets bullish (short edge).
Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Fed reassures spending won’t taper soon. Covid Delta continues to get notice with a return to MaskLife looming.
Trends: 60 min UP within a RANGE, daily up but “rounding” lower (short edge).
Chart: Inside day. Stat update shows LONGS have a subtle edge. Opening +0.10% (no edge). $TRIN XMA @ dropping to 1.12 shows a subtle buying trend (long term outlook: stay long).
Globex: The range of 22.50 (possible higher by the open) suggests a day session range around 38 points on a FALLING ATR of 40.73....