The Daily Market Forecast

For Wed 210804 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

Globex Review: Very narrow range. One trade taken shorting the CPL, getting T1 and stopping out the balance. CPL came off the chart so the short at 4417 (includes yesterday’s high) is ON until the day session starts.

Day Session Analysis: All things considered, today looks range-bound. Daily chart in a range, hourly as well. World sentiment is MIXED. No market-moving economic reports. Willing to trade in either direction, mindful of potential reversals in the big picture range-bound chart. Taking quicker profit than usual until (if) a trend breaks intraday. Wednesday (both sessions combined) garnered 24% of all the gains over the past 5 years in dollars. Reversals (74%) crush Breakouts (26%). Trading ES Volume Profile, CL/GC/ES using BB Rev with new filters considered and looking for credit spread opportunities on the SPXW.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4409/4414. We’re trading JUST BELOW the CPL (short edge below, long edge above) and ABOVE the Equilibrium 4397/4397.75 (open below = short edge, open above = long edge).

The World Index (-100/100) rises from +14 to +21 in a world of mixed but mostly bullish sentiment (short edge).

Catalysts: Not much at the moment: ADP Employment @ 8:15. ISM Services @ 10:00. EIA Petroleum Status @ 10:30. Chinese government eases aggressive move on tech. Covid Delta still relentless.

Trends: 60 min in a range, daily now in a range (no edge, but it WILL break one way or the other eventually. Good setup).

Chart: Inside day (second in a row). Stat update shows LONGS outperform SHORTS by about 50% (points earned). Opening -0.15% (long edge). $TRIN XMA stable at 1.14 (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 9.50 suggests a day session range around 22 points on a RISING ATR of 39.57. Prior forecast around 31 points, actual 51.75.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Better yet... trade with a team full of experience. Watch this video to learn more.