The Daily Market Forecast

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For Monday 210802 (Plenty can change by the open, be aware.)

The Mortgage Payment Trade is currently profitable both ways with SPY +1.95 and TLT -0.62.

Globex Review: Risk on. Asia made a strong comeback. One trade taken (short) with two targets in the bag before stopping out the final third. 

Day Session Analysis: Mixed evidence today. Charts suggest continued melt-up. World sentiment is BULLISH but that historically brings out profit-takers. ISM MFG report @ 10:00 might help decide direction. Stats favor SHORTS running further than LONGS. Monday (both sessions combined) garnered 27% of all the gains (in dollars) over the past 5 years.

S&P 500 Futures CPL: 4386.25/4393.25. We’re trading ABOVE the CPL (short edge below, long edge above).

The World Index (-100/100) soars from -64 to +67 with most major world markets BULLISH (short edge).

Catalysts: ISM MFG Index @ 10:00. Covid Delta still relentless, but Fauci claims vaccines are “highly effective” and “future lockdowns unlikely.” Asian markets stormed back. Germany easing. Infrastructure Bill looks promising this week (big spending… again). Earnings to date buoyed sentiment. The Bull likely to continue.

Trends: 60 min forming a wide range, daily up but “rounding top” (modest short edge).

Chart: High outside day. Stat update shows SHORTS run modestly farther than LONGS. Opening +0.40% (short edge). $TRIN XMA @ dropping to 1.22 reverses to a selling trend (long term outlook: stay long).

Globex: The range of 24.50 suggests a day session range around 40 points on a FALLING ATR of 37.84. Prior forecast around 38 points, actual 22.75. Days have been uncharacteristically narrower range than the Globex suggests for days now. Waiting on a catalyst to drop the market and kick up the day session action.

Trade Well,

Mike Siewruk

P.S. Better yet... trade with a team full of experience. Watch this video to learn more.