Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. The levels remain on the chart for today.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5469.75 stop 5465.00. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -64 to -7 with sentiment mixed and volatility waning. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Jobless Claims @ 8:30. S&P Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Confirmation

Here’s a great quote from Jesse Livermore, the inventor of stock day trading, "Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong."

In our effort to succeed we can devote too much effort to predicting the future. The problem is that our predictions are right just enough to keep us predicting! The feeling of getting into a winning trade at the start of the move is intoxicating. 

I recall demonstrating our intraday trend strategy and one trader wa...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5616.25 stop 5611.75. Short 5688.25 stop 5693.50. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +64 to -21 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. 

Catalysts: S&P MFG PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & Construction Spending @ 10:00 

Quick Tip: Drawdowns End

Are you plotting your strategy’s equity curve? If not, get started. It’s a modest amount of record keeping, and it will give you confidence and warn you to drawdowns and restarts. 

It’s important that the equity curve represents all trades your strategy teed up, not just the ones you took. Knowing the difference between your results (behavior) and what you should have done is critical to improving your results. 

The primary purpose of the equity curve is to view strategy results for continuing or halting trading. Our Volume Profile strategy went into a drawdown (losing streak) a while back, so it was halted. The recent performance gives us the confidence to restart now. 

Suggestio...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +64 with all major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. UofM Revised Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you haven’t read the last four blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #5: Maximizing Wins

In poker, as in trading, one universally agreed upon tenet is “minimize your losses and maximize your gains.” But what is the proper way to achieve that outcome?

Imagine you’re playing poker, and you get a powerful hand. Your reaction should be to raise the bet. Novice players make the mistake of slow betting the hand instead of raising. They want to keep players in the hand to maximize the pot and their winnings.

The problem is more cards are coming and your powerful hand might end up in s...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to -7 with Asia Bearish and Europe mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the close. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last two blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Think Long Term

Long term thinking doesn’t mean you should have a trade plan that only takes long term trades. It means the results in the short term are not relevant. What is relevant is your overall success. 

This is a tough pill to swallow for the short term trader. Some have daily or weekly income goals. They’re thinking short term. But how do they handle a few losing days or weeks in a row? 

A great analogy comes from poker champion Bobby Baldwin. He said “Poker is one continuous game” which goes on forever and star...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility lower. 

Catalysts: S&P Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read yesterday’s blog now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable to traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #2 Big Wins Vanish

Trading results, just like poker results, cycle between winning streaks, losing streaks, and flat periods where wins and loses cancel each other out. Let’s focus on winning streaks today. 

Whether it’s one monster winning trade or a series of winning trades, you’ll likely start to feel invincible. It will last for a period in which you won’t even think about the losing streaks or flat periods when it took all the courage you had to continue trading. You’ll feel calm, relaxed, and arrive at a state that you thin...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +21 with sentiment mixed. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods orders @ 8:30.  Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. 

Welcome to Poker Week! 

There are plenty of similarities between trading and poker. For example, both require tremendous discipline and superb risk management. 

One excellent book every trader should read is Zen and the Art of Poker by Larry Phillips. This week’s blog is dedicated to 5 key lessons from the book. Enjoy!

Lesson #1: Fold More Often

The first thing you’ll learn to become a winning poker player is this: Fold more often. Wait for the best cards. Be patient. 

Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? In fact, most gamblers would run for the door looking for action elsewhere. 

Successful trading, like poker, isn’t about excitement. It’s about winning over the long haul. 

A while back my friend ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 again with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @14:00. Waiting on Powell’s Friday speech. 

Quick Tip: Outside the Box

Trading with price charts and technical indicators is hugely popular. Being a visual learner, I find them useful too. Patterns and colored indicators “speak” to me quickly. With practice, you don’t need a calculator or much thought to analyze opportunities. 

Eighteen months ago, I learned a different approach. It made me realize I was confining my trade plan and limiting myself to being just another retail trader using an all-too-common approach. 

As usual, I started a deep dive into researching this new approach. For me that included finding significant evidence the approach had an edge. And before I added it to my trade plan I ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Bostic @ 13:35 and Barr @ 14:45. 

Quick Tip: Best Fit

There are virtually countless ways to trade. Different styles, strategies, time horizons, tools to use, etc. 

How do you know which you should trade? 

Most traders go at this decision backwards. They hunt around for a strategy or mentor that has proof the edge is there and they imagine relatively easy success copying it. 

While there is nothing wrong experimenting with different approaches, successful traders find that they do better fitting the strategy to their personality, not trying to change their personality to fit the strategy. 

One obvious example is time horizon. You might find a solid winning strategy for day trading but once you do it you find it’s not fun. You don’t like the ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 to +7 with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Waller @ 9:15. 

Quick Tip: Waiting 

I grew up in Michigan. A local saying about the weather was “Wait a day, it’ll change.” Now I live in Florida where during the rainy season you can drop your waiting time to an hour!

Markets are very similar. They trend up or down and then move sideways. Back and forth. Patience pays off and impulsivity gets hammered. 

This cyclicality applies to your strategy performance too. You’ll have winning streaks, flat periods, and losing streaks. Given this reality you need rules to manage each condition to prosper, even survive. 

Here’s an example: The volume levels suggested here are one component of an overall strategy that pre-determines stops and targets. Lately the strategy is struggling, and no new levels have been shared.

Dr...