Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -86 to -100 with all major world markets very Bearish on massive volatility. 

Catalysts: Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Global equities selloff accelerates. Tokyo enters Bear Market. 

Quick Tip: Down Fast

In its simplest form trading is nothing more than risking money to make money. You need to be a net winner. This will happen if your losses are kept “small” (that’s a relative word) and you have…

1. More winning than losing events and/or 

2. Larger winners than losers. 

Successful traders look for asymmetrical trades. These are trades where the risk is small compared to the potential gains. 

One application for asymmetry is frequently overlooked. Trade direction. Evidence shows that prices tend to fall faster than they rise. Why is this? Fear can...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -7 to +86 with all major world markets strongly Bullish. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30. META reports after the close. BOJ raises rates.

Quick Tip: Disqualifying 

Traditional work (your job) makes becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, but because it instills a belief that is NOT helpful in trading. 

What is it? Always doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on this.” Or “Wednesdays are difficult days to get anything done, so I’m going to loaf.” 

In trading NOT entering a trade is not only OK it’s ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +36 with most world markets Bullish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today. Big tech earnings & FOMC later in the week promise action.  

Quick Tip: Market Diversification

Market conditions constantly change. Hopefully you’ve perfected a few different strategies that align with the different Market States (trend and volatility).

One of the most effective ways to improve your performance is to trade a diverse range of markets. Include as many as are affordable in your portfolio given your account size. You certainly won’t trade every signal so make your first pre-trade decision in your plan “Market Selection.” 

Here’s an example: Our day trading room currently focuses on the S&P, oil & gold futures markets. We have strategies for each of the market states. At any given time, the...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from -14 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: MFG & Services Flash PMI @ 9:45. New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Inventories @ 10:30. Bearish hangover from GOOG/TSLA earnings. 

Quick Tip: Expensive Options

Traders going long want (need) to buy low and sell high. What may be more important, if available, is a clue that something non-publicly known is about to happen forcing the stock to rise quickly. This might be an earnings release, new product, acquisition, etc. The idea is that smart money knows something the public doesn’t and trades that information. 

Following smart money buys in the options market has edge. You want this. The...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +36 to -14 with many major world markets motionless. 

Catalysts: Existing Home Sales & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. TSLA & AMZN earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Strategy Death

This Volume Profile strategy has been in a drawdown for some time. It’s getting painful to document the setups/results every day, but it must be done. Otherwise, how would we know if the strategy is worth trading again? 

What I’ve noticed in the daily review is that the levels are not the main problem. It appears the entry and exit rules are. Fortunately, we have thousands of trades documented, each with 47 data points, and this offers us a significant research opportunity to solve the problem. Stay...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Friday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from -36 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic front. Election views differ but the market is melting up nicely. Earnings season continues. 

Quick Tip: Open Your Mind

Imagine you’re attending a trading conference. You’re one of hundreds of traders watching the presentations, talking to vendors at their booths, looking for some new edge to add to your plan. 

If you asked everyone you met, “What tools do you use to trade?” Here’s what you’d hear: Price action, chart patterns, fundamentals, supply/demand, moving averages, volume, RSI, MACD, CCI, ATR, Stochastics, Bollinger bands, etc. 

The fact is, other than fundamentals, they...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +29 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Williams @ 10:40, Bostic @ 13:00. Banks, airlines & exchanges challenged by Crowdstrike/Microsoft bug, apparently fixed. 

Quick Tip: Critical Add-On

If you're trading stocks or options you need to ensure your portfolio is adequately diversified. Hot sectors in the market come and go, sometimes simultaneously. 

This is a critical component of your plan regardless of your entry and exit rules. 

The problem with trying to diversify your picks without a proven method is difficult. You can easily get stuck trading one hot segment of the market (think AI) and ignore others that are primed to explode. 

Our swing trading...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -36 to -14 with sentiment mixed with low volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Kugler @ 14:45.  

Quick Tip: Volatility Stops

Price is either trending or not, volatile or not. Your results will largely depend on the rules you apply to these four Market States. 

In the chart above I’m trading our intraday trend strategy. It performs best when the market is trending on LOW volatility. 

After the open price chopped up and down in a range that was volatile but not extremely so. Once the signal to enter the trend triggered, you’ll notice the volatility slowed considerably. All the candles...