Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +8 to +93 with all major world markets very Bullish. Contrarian alert (there will be profit taking, maybe today). 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Herd Following

Trend following as a trading strategy is effective and popular among hedge funds. But they don’t all use the same algorithm. They want to be different enough to compete for better returns and the new money to manage that will come pouring in. 

With AI gaining popularity in the trading world, you can imagine that one day there might be no one to trade against. As AI matures, everyone will have access to “all knowledge.” Why wouldn’t everyone use the best rule set? 

This is an interesting...

Yesterday’s results: No price levels available due to contract rollover. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5698.00 stop 5693.25. No short levels above. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from zero to +33 with most major world markets Bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories, Housing Market Index & Fed’s Logan @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Complacent?  

We all trade to win and make a profit. The ups and downs happen along the way. The time to get laser-focused is when you’re feeling like you don’t need to. 

The recent rally in the S&P has the stock indexes at or near all-time highs. Our team’s swing trading portfolio had some incredible gains last week. One trade earned over 700% in two days. It’s natural when everything is effortlessly going your way to relax and enjoy the ride. 

But...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No price levels today due to contract rollover. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to zero with sentiment mixed and volatility very low. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Futures Rollover

Futures contracts are buy/sell agreements between two parties. Every contract has a delivery date at which point the transaction ends and goods/money are exchanged. 

Many futures traders have no intention of fulfilling their contractual obligations. They’re either speculating on price direction or hedging against price changes. For these traders exiting the current contract before the delivery date and entering the next contract further out on the calendar is called rollover. 

For stock index futures the rollover is quarterly near the middle of March, June, September and December. The symbols will change...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5422.25 stop 5416.50. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75. Filter out trades around the CPI release. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -7 to -21 with world sentiment drifting Bearish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Ten-year bond auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Bulls Rule Today?

It’s hard to believe the 9/11 attacks were 23 years ago. I still have vivid memories of not trading that day. 

Sitting on a 100% long swing trading portfolio of stocks and watching the news would seem personally tough. The truth is I didn’t think much about the money or potential loss given the circumstances. There is a time when money simply doesn’t matter in comparison. Thankfully it rarely happens. 

Markets are mostly a collective emotional argument. Since nothing can be...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5422.25 stop 5416.50. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -7 with sentiment mixed and volatility low. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Barr @ 10:00, Bowman @ 12:15. Waiting for CPI tomorrow.  

Quick Tip: Moving Stops

The stop loss placement decision is made before entry. It’s at a price where your choice of direction is proven wrong. 

You can always tighten the stop while the price is moving in your direction to minimize the risk. No one will tell you to increase your risk by moving the stop farther out if the price is going against you. Another alternative is to not move the stop at all and manage out of the trade from the profit target side. 

I know successful traders that have opposing views on this subject. The correct answer is not simple, though. You need to...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. The levels remain on the chart for today.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5469.75 stop 5465.00. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -64 to -7 with sentiment mixed and volatility waning. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Jobless Claims @ 8:30. S&P Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Confirmation

Here’s a great quote from Jesse Livermore, the inventor of stock day trading, "Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong."

In our effort to succeed we can devote too much effort to predicting the future. The problem is that our predictions are right just enough to keep us predicting! The feeling of getting into a winning trade at the start of the move is intoxicating. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5616.25 stop 5611.75. Short 5688.25 stop 5693.50. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +64 to -21 with most major world markets mildly Bearish. 

Catalysts: S&P MFG PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & Construction Spending @ 10:00 

Quick Tip: Drawdowns End

Are you plotting your strategy’s equity curve? If not, get started. It’s a modest amount of record keeping, and it will give you confidence and warn you to drawdowns and restarts. 

It’s important that the equity curve represents all trades your strategy teed up, not just the ones you took. Knowing the difference between your results (behavior) and what you should have done is critical to improving your results. 

The primary purpose of the equity curve is to view strategy results for continuing or halting trading. Our Volume Profile strategy went into a drawdown (losing streak) a while back, so it was halted....

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +64 with all major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. UofM Revised Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you haven’t read the last four blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #5: Maximizing Wins

In poker, as in trading, one universally agreed upon tenet is “minimize your losses and maximize your gains.” But what is the proper way to achieve that outcome?

Imagine you’re playing poker, and you get a powerful hand. Your reaction should be to raise the bet. Novice players make the mistake of slow betting the hand instead of raising. They want to keep players in the hand to maximize the pot and their...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to -7 with Asia Bearish and Europe mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the close. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last two blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Think Long Term

Long term thinking doesn’t mean you should have a trade plan that only takes long term trades. It means the results in the short term are not relevant. What is relevant is your overall success. 

This is a tough pill to swallow for the short term trader. Some have daily or weekly income goals. They’re thinking short term. But how do they handle a few losing days or weeks in a row? 

A great analogy comes from poker champion...