Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: : The short @ 3731.25 ran for 18.25 points, after getting 51.75 from the prior day’s high-volume level. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3891.00 stop 3896.75. Buy 3702.00 stop 3696.25

Quick Tip: Optimal Stops

Limiting losses is critical for success in trading. Stop Loss orders are one important part of your risk management plan.

Where to place your Stop Loss is a personal matter. One common and sensible place is at the price your trade is proven wrong. 

Here’s how to optimize your Stop Loss placement: Log the MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) for every trade setup, whether you took the trade or not. MAE is simply how far against your entry it went before stopping out or hitting your first profit target. 

Obviously, the maximum MAE you’ll have is the stop itself. But on all...

Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The short @ 3738.50 only offered 8.75 points. The breakout after failure offered 5.50 points. See chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3731.25 stop 3736.00. Buy 3605.00 stop 3599.25.

Quick Tip: Trader’s Fuel

If trading is a performance endeavor (it is) then the committed trader will train for peak performance. Not just practicing trading different markets and strategies in simulation mode, but training physically and mentally. 

On the physical side there is exercise, oxygenation, hydration, and food. Get in the habit before you open your trading platform. 

On the mental side there is discipline, self-control, and confidence. 

Here’s some great news: In Roy Baumeister’s book, Willpower (must read), he references dozens of studies that overwhelmingly prove how...

Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy @ 3693.00 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3738.50 stop 3743.25. Buy 3645.00 stop 3639.25.

Quick Tip: More Price Levels

This blog suggests two good setups every day. One long, one short. They are not the only setups that are presented from the volume-at-price analysis. 

Every trading day offers a different “map” of volume levels. They only work for so long, then they’re taken off the chart. That happens when the level is stopped out. Sometimes it occurs on the first touch, like yesterday’s short suggestion. Other times it happens after two, three or more touches. 

Hint: Save the levels that didn’t trigger a trade or stop out. They’re good until they’re violated. 

Looking at yesterday’s chart you’ll see a reversal level that ran...

Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Price opened above the suggested short @ 3766.50 and shorting the breakout stopped out. The buy @ 3693.00 never triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3778.00 stop 3783.00. Buy 3693.00 stop 3687.75.

Quick Tip: Day Trades Vary

When you hear “day trading” you may envision a trader glued to an array of monitors buying and selling all day long. While that is certainly a style of day trading it’s not the only style. 

Day trading simply means you are entering and exiting your trade within that day’s session. 

The three basic styles of day trading include scalping, reversal/breakout, and hold-to-close. 

You’re essentially slicing the session into different time frames and expectations.

Scalping is moving in and out of trades for small gains taking very small...

Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Price spiked higher and traded in a range. Neither suggestion triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3766.50 stop 3770.50. Buy 3693.00 stop 3687.75.

Quick Tip: How You Learn

If you’re a regular reader of this blog you know that documentation and review of all your trade setups (taken or not) is essential to improving your results. 

As Brett Steenbarger writes in his book Enhancing Trader Performance, “Trading performance is less a function of WHAT traders learn than of HOW they learn it.” 

Who do you think is going to perform better, the trader who never studies his trade setups or the trader who does? Review is a fabulous learning experience. 

It’s easy to skimp on this work by focusing on just the trades you took or the losers. Your instinct is to understand why you lost. Was it...

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy @ 3654.00 ran for 26.50 points with only 2 ticks of adverse move. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3731.75 stop 3737.50. Buy 3516.50 stop 3511.75.

Quick Tip: Next up…

Looking on the chart above at how price is approaching the buy level you might feel like you were stepping in front of a freight train. The plunge was fast with no support to stall it. 

This strategy, volume-at-price, has a history of turning with 2 ticks or less adverse move (like this one) 18% of the time. On the downside, the strategy stops out 32% of the time. That should take care of any fear to enter. 

The winners will require open trade management skill to eke the most out the run, in this case a maximum of 26.50 points. Preset targets, chart features, measured moves, and trailing stops are some of...

Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The buy @ 3501.25 missed filling by only 1 point. The short @ 3713.50 filled in the Globex last night and ran for 53.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Short 3778.00 stop 3783.00. Buy 3654.00 stop 3649.25.

Quick Tip: History Teaches…  

Technical indicators can be helpful. The chief complaint is that most are lagging what’s happening in present time. “What good is history when we’re trying to determine what will happen next?”

It turns out history is an excellent teacher. Historical evidence doesn’t always work, but there are probabilities gleaned from its analysis. Trading is all about probabilities, not certainties. From this perspective they are valuable. 

Used skillfully, knowing their benefits and limitations, technical indicators can...

Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither suggested level triggered. 

Quick Tip: How to Trade CPI

We’re in a Bear market. Inflation is high. Interest rates are rising. Recession is looming. You know all that and it’s not bullish. 

There is a ton of money on the sidelines waiting to buy. They’re looking for a signal. Today’s CPI may be that signal. We could see a huge runup if the CPI number is favorable. If that happens you’ll see another Bear Market rally. The global economic conditions going forward do not suggest today’s possibly good CPI will signal a bottom has been formed. 

The chart above shows the S&P Futures with the Globex session (overnight) shaded. Notice how every day in the past week buyers rallied the Globex and sold off the day session. Granted this is a small sample size to depend on but it is a trend. It’s repeating. 

The...

Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither suggested level triggered. 

Quick Tip: Futures Fills  

Trading futures contracts on the Globex exchange (cmegroup.com) might be the fairest market in the world. Why? Because the orders are time-stamped upon arrival and filled on a first-in first-filled basis. No one gets preference. You’re in a line and it doesn’t matter if you’re a small retail trader or an institution. 

Real-world example: Looking at the winning trade from the Globex last night (see chart above) you’ll notice that price turned right on the suggested buy level. Not even one tick adverse move. In fact, checking the volume at price there were 37 micros and 19 minis traded there. That’s worldwide!

Bottom line is you’re not guaranteed a fill. Maybe you were too far back “in the line” and price bid lower, not filling your order.

Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither suggested level triggered. 

Quick Tip: Which Market? 

The word “market” can mean asset. Stock market. Oil market. Gold market. 

It can also mean “condition.” Trending market. Ranging market. 

Your strategy rules should be customized to a market condition. No strategy performs well in all market conditions. 

It’s commonly said that markets trend around 30% of the time. That leaves 70% for range-bound conditions. 

Trending markets offer larger profit opportunities. When you catch a trend it can persist for quite some time. However, you’ll have more losing trades when whipsaws occur. 

Range-bound markets offer more winning opportunities. As price moves back and forth from support to resistance you can capture more but smaller winning trades. 

Which do you prefer? This is important because your trading style needs to...