The Daily Market Forecast
Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy @ 3654.00 ran for 26.50 points with only 2 ticks of adverse move.
Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Short 3731.75 stop 3737.50. Buy 3516.50 stop 3511.75.
Quick Tip: Next up…
Looking on the chart above at how price is approaching the buy level you might feel like you were stepping in front of a freight train. The plunge was fast with no support to stall it.
This strategy, volume-at-price, has a history of turning with 2 ticks or less adverse move (like this one) 18% of the time. On the downside, the strategy stops out 32% of the time. That should take care of any fear to enter.
The winners will require open trade management skill to eke the most out the run, in this case a maximum of 26.50 points. Preset targets, chart features, measured moves, and trailing stops are some of the exit strategies you can use.
What you need to anticipate is the failed trade. Are you taking the breakout short if the level fails? This is a strategy rule. Knowing in advance is better than making a split-second decision after losing money.
Practice using the downtime of trading, the waiting time, to anticipate outcomes and plan your actions.
The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DROPS from +93 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. Historically higher closes from the open occurred 55% of the time but down days see 20% more loss than up days.
Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. More banks reporting earnings. Fed’s Bullard suggests possibility of two more 75BP rate hikes.
Trade Fearlessly,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. Multiple strategies, software tools, teammates, and coaching. Learn why you should join our team here. For a personal consultation to assess fit (without selling) email me for an appointment: mike@thedailymarketforecast.