Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +21 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Building Permits/Housing Starts @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 13:25. 

Quick Tip: Sell or Hold? 

Money messes with our heads. Until you get a grip on the emotions associated with winning and losing, you’re unlikely to succeed. 

Here’s a viewpoint I learned from one of the all-time great traders, Larry Williams: “More money is lost due to overstaying positions (greed) than exiting due to the fear of losing money.” 

Your fear is likely solved by using stops that lose an amount of money you can accept. Easy enough.

If Larry is correct, and I do believe he is, then greed is solved by pre-planned profit targets and open trade management. Planning targets is easy, open trade management requires skill and discipline. 

Here’s an example: The chart abo...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +14 to +21 with sentiment mildly Bullish and volatility lower.

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Empire State MFG Index, Philly Fed MFG Index, & Import/Export prices @ 8:30. Fed’s Musalem @ 9:10. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Harker @ 13:10. 

Quick Tip: This is a Business

If you treat your trading like a hobby or pastime you’ll lose money. If you treat it like a business, you have a much better chance for success. 

The expense side of trading is simple to analyze. You have losses, commissions, data fees, internet access, accounting, etc. 

The revenue side of trading is simple as well: your winning trades. But that’s only one revenue stream if you’re trading one strategy. 

How many successful businesses do you know of that have one product? One revenue stream? 

Diver...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +7 with sentiment mixed and volatility lower.

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. Fed’s Bostic @ 13:15. Waiting on CPI tomorrow.  

Quick Tip: After You Exit

Hall of Fame baseball legend Ted Williams would have been an outstanding trader. When asked about his success he explained a method that all great traders use. 

He documented the details of every at-bat. 

Specifically, he separated the plate into different zones and calculated his batting average for each zone. Swinging at low pitches was not so productive. Swinging at high pitches directly over the plate was very productive!

Traders have far more details they can document than a few zones over the plate. Some data is obvious like time of day, volatility, trend, asset, etc. 

To truly excel documenting details about yourself will set you apart. Were you focused, rested, energetic, optimistic and confident? Or were you di...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -50 to +43 with most of the world Bullish on falling volatility.  

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today. 

Quick Tip: Stay Open

If you’re always “right” then you’ll never be open minded enough to change for the better. Being flexible and open-minded to new ideas is a huge advantage in trading. 

I’m not saying you simply agree with every new idea you hear. I’m saying that when you’re presented with an intriguing idea (setup, rule, etc.) you owe it to yourself to investigate the value of it. And if you find improvement, then accept the change. 

I was told the great investor George Soros wrote in his book about a trade he took in the Japanese Yen. It ended up a monster winner. His first entry was short based on his analysis. It failed quickly so he doubled his size and went long. Just like that!

We are all going to be wrong or mistaken at times. The key to suc...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +79 to -50 with renewed selling and sticky volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Fed’s Barkin @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: Try Waiting 

Successful trading skills are very different in many cases than how we’ve been conditioned to believe and behave. We were all taught to work hard and smart to control the outcome of our efforts. In trading we cannot control whether we win or lose but we can control how much we lose. 

Some market conditions are more difficult than others to even control the losses! What’s the solution? 

Here’s some advice from arguably one of the best traders in history, Jim Rogers. 

He said “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I must do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime."

Who was taught this concept growing up? Did Dad ever say, “Do nothing?” Your teacher? Your bos...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -86 to -100 with all major world markets very Bearish on massive volatility. 

Catalysts: Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Global equities selloff accelerates. Tokyo enters Bear Market. 

Quick Tip: Down Fast

In its simplest form trading is nothing more than risking money to make money. You need to be a net winner. This will happen if your losses are kept “small” (that’s a relative word) and you have…

1. More winning than losing events and/or 

2. Larger winners than losers. 

Successful traders look for asymmetrical trades. These are trades where the risk is small compared to the potential gains. 

One application for asymmetry is frequently overlooked. Trade direction. Evidence shows that prices tend to fall faster than they rise. Why is this? Fear can be more powerful than greed. 

Look at enough charts, measure the moves, you’ll find it’s true most ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -7 to +86 with all major world markets strongly Bullish. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30. META reports after the close. BOJ raises rates.

Quick Tip: Disqualifying 

Traditional work (your job) makes becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, but because it instills a belief that is NOT helpful in trading. 

What is it? Always doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on this.” Or “Wednesdays are difficult days to get anything done, so I’m going to loaf.” 

In trading NOT entering a trade is not only OK it’s sometimes the smart decision. Today is FOMC day. Volatility will be high for an hour or so. Ther...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +36 with most world markets Bullish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar today. Big tech earnings & FOMC later in the week promise action.  

Quick Tip: Market Diversification

Market conditions constantly change. Hopefully you’ve perfected a few different strategies that align with the different Market States (trend and volatility).

One of the most effective ways to improve your performance is to trade a diverse range of markets. Include as many as are affordable in your portfolio given your account size. You certainly won’t trade every signal so make your first pre-trade decision in your plan “Market Selection.” 

Here’s an example: Our day trading room currently focuses on the S&P, oil & gold futures markets. We have strategies for each of the market states. At any given time, the individual markets will be trading in or out of sync with the strategies. Last wee...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from -14 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: MFG & Services Flash PMI @ 9:45. New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Inventories @ 10:30. Bearish hangover from GOOG/TSLA earnings. 

Quick Tip: Expensive Options

Traders going long want (need) to buy low and sell high. What may be more important, if available, is a clue that something non-publicly known is about to happen forcing the stock to rise quickly. This might be an earnings release, new product, acquisition, etc. The idea is that smart money knows something the public doesn’t and trades that information. 

Following smart money buys in the options market has edge. You want this. The obvious question is how do you find them? 

Larry McMillan, in his excellent book Options as a Strategic Investm...