Friday’s results: No trades suggested. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Short 5808.00 stop 5812.75. Buy 5812.00 stop 5807.25 if price retraces from above. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +57 to -14 with China wildly Bullish and the remaining major world markets somewhat Bearish. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Bowman @ 8:50 and Powell @13:55. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Dallas Fed MFG Index @10:30. 

Quick Tip: Ratio Exits

Our volume-at-price strategy usually performs better in the Globex session. We know this from thousands of documented trades. The challenge for most of us is we’re sleeping! 

Setting a planned entry before bedtime is no problem. Optimizing the exit is the tricky part. 

One common exit is the trailing stop using initial risk. The downside is price can get spiky taking you out of what became a great trade. 

One great trader on our team uses what I’ll call the Ratio Exit. 

For example, we know that this strategy has a 53%-win rate over thousands of Globex session...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5781.50 picked the bottom of the session and ran for 26.75 points just before the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No high-probability levels today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dips from +86 to +57 with all major world markets Bullish except the S&P futures. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised) @ 10:00. Fed’s Bowman @ 13:15. 

Quick Tip: Trailing Stops

The technique of adjusting your stop loss so it follows or “trails” price while moving in your direction is attractive. There are several ways to place a trailing stop. The first decision you must make is whether you want your platform to automatically adjust it or you to manually adjust it. 

For automatic trailing stops any decent trading platform will allow you to enter the trailing stop by points, dollars or percentage. If your initial stop was 4 points away, let that be the trailing stop. Simple, but that doesn’t adjust for volatility changes. 

If yo...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5775.50 was only good for a 5-point bounce if filled. The short idea never triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5755.75 stop 5752.25. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +71 to +7 with sentiment mixed on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Kugler @ 16:00. 

Quick Tip: Synergy

In Stephen Covey’s bestseller, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, the 6th habit is Synergize. The concept is that two (or more) things working together produce a result that is better than the sum. 

Think about this: If everyone agreed with you about the subject at hand, would there ever be any improvement to the subject (process, strategy, plan, etc.)? No change, no synergy.  

That is precisely why you should embrace disagreement… from a constructive viewpoint. Different opinions and outlooks, when approached properly can lead to synergistic results. 

No one knows it all. ...

Friday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5705.75 stop 5700.00. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 with sentiment mixed and volatility low. 

Catalysts: S&P Flash MFG/Services PMI @ 9:45. Fed’s Bostic @ 8:00, Goolsbee @ 10:15, Kashkari @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Expectations 

“What are you struggling with?” was the question I asked a group of traders. One woman said she had expectation challenges. She felt she needed to acknowledge that every trade won't be a home run, or “10 to 1” as she phrased it. 

I respect her self-awareness. Expectations is not a commonly voiced trading challenge. But it is real. You can expect too much and foster disappointment. You can expect too little and minimize your profits. Neither view is healthy for your ultimate results. 

If you are documenting all the trades of your strategies (taken or not) then you will have hard evidence and know what to expect most of the time. The challenge ...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5705.75 stop 5700.00. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +93 to +7 with Asia Bullish and the west modestly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Fed’s Harker speaks @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Choices

The first serious sports car I bought was painted gold. It was the only one of that model the dealer had at the time and they were hard to get. I didn’t love the color, but I really wanted the car. 

Most of the time we have choices and that’s a good thing. Traders have plenty of choices. Maybe too many. Which asset to trade, how many shares/contracts, entries, exits, etc. That’s why you should have a plan and stick to your rules. 

One of the choices I’ve noticed many traders don’t have is which strategy to execute. It seems they learn one and stick with it. Market conditions change and not all strategies work well in all markets. Having no choice leaves yo...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +8 to +93 with all major world markets very Bullish. Contrarian alert (there will be profit taking, maybe today). 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Herd Following

Trend following as a trading strategy is effective and popular among hedge funds. But they don’t all use the same algorithm. They want to be different enough to compete for better returns and the new money to manage that will come pouring in. 

With AI gaining popularity in the trading world, you can imagine that one day there might be no one to trade against. As AI matures, everyone will have access to “all knowledge.” Why wouldn’t everyone use the best rule set? 

This is an interesting challenge that is on the mind of Gary Gensler, head of the SEC. In a Bloomberg article he warned that with AI “too many brok...

Yesterday’s results: No price levels available due to contract rollover. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5698.00 stop 5693.25. No short levels above. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from zero to +33 with most major world markets Bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories, Housing Market Index & Fed’s Logan @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Complacent?  

We all trade to win and make a profit. The ups and downs happen along the way. The time to get laser-focused is when you’re feeling like you don’t need to. 

The recent rally in the S&P has the stock indexes at or near all-time highs. Our team’s swing trading portfolio had some incredible gains last week. One trade earned over 700% in two days. It’s natural when everything is effortlessly going your way to relax and enjoy the ride. 

But complacency is a dangerous condition. It precedes fear. You’ve likely heard Buffett’s famous quote “We try to be greedy wh...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: No price levels today due to contract rollover. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to zero with sentiment mixed and volatility very low. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Futures Rollover

Futures contracts are buy/sell agreements between two parties. Every contract has a delivery date at which point the transaction ends and goods/money are exchanged. 

Many futures traders have no intention of fulfilling their contractual obligations. They’re either speculating on price direction or hedging against price changes. For these traders exiting the current contract before the delivery date and entering the next contract further out on the calendar is called rollover. 

For stock index futures the rollover is quarterly near the middle of March, June, September and December. The symbols will change to H, M, U, Z respectively. Starting today we’ll be trading the Decem...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5422.25 stop 5416.50. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75. Filter out trades around the CPI release. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -7 to -21 with world sentiment drifting Bearish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Ten-year bond auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Bulls Rule Today?

It’s hard to believe the 9/11 attacks were 23 years ago. I still have vivid memories of not trading that day. 

Sitting on a 100% long swing trading portfolio of stocks and watching the news would seem personally tough. The truth is I didn’t think much about the money or potential loss given the circumstances. There is a time when money simply doesn’t matter in comparison. Thankfully it rarely happens. 

Markets are mostly a collective emotional argument. Since nothing can be much more emotional than 9/11 for the markets and being an evidence-based trader, I decided to take a...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5422.25 stop 5416.50. Short 5581.25 stop 5584.75.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at -7 with sentiment mixed and volatility low. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Barr @ 10:00, Bowman @ 12:15. Waiting for CPI tomorrow.  

Quick Tip: Moving Stops

The stop loss placement decision is made before entry. It’s at a price where your choice of direction is proven wrong. 

You can always tighten the stop while the price is moving in your direction to minimize the risk. No one will tell you to increase your risk by moving the stop farther out if the price is going against you. Another alternative is to not move the stop at all and manage out of the trade from the profit target side. 

I know successful traders that have opposing views on this subject. The correct answer is not simple, though. You need to know their trading style and risk tolerance to truly understand their answer. 

Trader A enters momentum...