Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Friday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +36 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. The U.S. deviates with a strong bullish Globex session so far. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Powell @ 12:00, Daly @ 4:35. Goldman Sachs gapping up on earnings. Trump presidency looks more likely. 

Quick Tip: Excursions

I’ve been asked a few times… “Why do you document the trade results with the maximum that price moved, since you can’t exit there anyway?”

Two data points you should keep for every trade, taken in real time or not, are Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE, how far price went in your favor) and Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE, how far price went against you). 

As your data set...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +50 to +36 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Earnings starts with big banks. 

Quick Tip: Resilience 

Baseball great Harmon Killebrew said, “The most important athletic ability is the talent to comeback from behind.” True in sports, true in business, true in trading. 

The great come-back athletes were different than their peers. They knew there would be setbacks. They thought in advance how to handle them. They didn’t get emotional. They snapped to attention and executed their plan. 

Traders have losing streaks. Can’t avoid them. 

Are you reactive or proactive? What’s your comeback...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Wednesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +21 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & CPI @ 8:30. Fed’s Bostic @ 11:15 & Musalem @ 13:00. 30-year bond auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Defining Trend

“The trend is your friend… until the bend in the end.” 

Most traders agree. But not all traders define trends the same way. 

Here’s some examples: 

1. Moving average slope.

2. Higher highs, higher lows (up), lower highs, lower lows (down). 

3. Drawing trendlines based on connecting highs (down) and lows (up). 

4. Higher time interval slope. 

5. Basing price pattern breakouts. 

Take your pick. The question is “Does it...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -14 to +57 with all most major world markets very Bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP NFP Change @ 8:15. Jobless Claims & Trade Balance @ 8:30. Services PMI (Final) @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. Futures market closes @ 1:15 ET for the holiday.

Quick Tip: Trend or Reversal?

You might be thinking that trading trends is safer than picking turning points. Many strategies focus on trading in the direction of a larger time frame trend. This makes sense and it generally works well. 

But it’s not necessarily “safer.”  Your initial priority is making sure your trade plan rule set has “edge,” meaning over time...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +50 to -14 most of the world leaning Bearish on modest volatility.  

Catalysts: Fed’s Powell @ 9:30. JOLTS @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: Need to Know

Curiosity leads to learning and discovery. We want to know the “what, why, how, when & where.” 

All good. Except in day trading. 

Any time you see the price plunge or skyrocket on high volume your first impulse is to find out why, what happened?

But does it matter? As a day trader your setup likely lasts less than an hour. Do you need to understand the reason if you’re only trading price action? Do you even have the time to find out? 

If you’re a day or short-term trader the better time to be...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to -14 in a world of mixed sentiment and rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Cook @ 12:00 and Bowman @14:10.  

Quick Tip: Rotation

If you swing trade stocks and options you’re likely to have a portfolio of positions open. It’s easy to get mesmerized by the movers, like NVDA, and lose focus on a key and important consideration, diversification. 

All sectors of stocks don’t move in the same direction all the time. Looking at the heatmap of yesterday above (courtesy of Finviz.com) it’s interesting that while the S&P was down on the day, most of the sectors were up!

Since the S&P is a market cap weighted index, companies...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +21 to -43 with mosrt major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Flash MFG & Services PMI @ 9:45. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Being Different

Here’s a great quote from Earl Nightingale: “If you set out to be successful at something and you don’t know how to do it, look around at what everybody else is doing, and don’t do that…”

This is especially true with trading. If everyone traded the same way there would be no counter parties. We need plenty of different styles and opposing viewpoints for the markets to exist. 

If you’re still struggling it’s a good idea to stop trading live money and start looking at alternative trading styles. Be open-minded. I’ve met too...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Building Permits/Housing Starts, Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Barkin @ 15:30. 

Quick Tip: Overbought is Tricky.

Price soars way up, it’s overbought. Price plunges way down, it’s oversold. There are many indicators and chart patterns for identifying these conditions. The rub is these conditions can persist. Exiting too soon isn’t all that bad. All you did was make a little less profit. Entering the reversal too soon is usually trouble. 

The S&P once again is at an all-time high. Interest rates are still high along with inflation. Geopolitical stress remains. Gravity will prevail one...