Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4701.75 stop 4696.00. Short 4752.00 stop 4756.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from +14 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Employment Situation @ 8:30. ISM Services PMI & Factory Orders @ 10:00. Fed’s Barkin speaks @ 13:30. 

Quick Tip: Volume Leads Price

For as complex and chaotic as the markets are, technical traders only have 3 variables to analyze. Price, volume, and time. Most technical traders agree that volume LEADS price. 

Price moving up with volume increasing is very bullish. It’s hard evidence that plenty of buying interest is happening. Conversely, price moving up with decreasing volume is not as bullish. 

Price moving down with volume increasing is very...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: : Shorting 4777.00 filled in the Globex session last night running for 9+ points and still open but looking weak. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4704.00 stop 4699.25. Short 4800.50 stop 4805.50

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +7 to +43 with most major world markets Bullish.  

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Import Prices & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Interest rate cuts coming, risk on, Dow hits record high, others to follow. 

Quick Tip: Asymmetry

Interest rate cuts are now firmly on the horizon after yesterday’s FOMC press conference. We will see new all-time highs in all the stock market indexes. 

What does that mean for short selling? 

Historically, prices move up and down in impulses and corrections. There will be short selling...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4572.50 was filtered out during the Employment Report @ 8:30. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

The volume levels are affected by rollover today and are filtered out. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) gains from +7 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: 10-year bond auction @ 13:01. 

Quick Tip: Futures Rollover

Futures contracts are buy/sell agreements between two parties. Every contract has a delivery date at which point the transaction ends and goods/money are exchanged. 

Many futures traders have no intention of fulfilling their contractual obligations. They’re either speculating on price direction or hedging against price changes. For these traders exiting the current contract before the delivery date and entering the next contract further out on the calendar is...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4551.00 was only good for a 4-point scalp. The breakout short failed. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4557.50 stop 4551.75. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) falls from +50 to -14 in a world of mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & Prices @ 10:00.  Fed’s Goolsbee @ 10:00, Powell @ 11:00 and 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Measured Moves

Price tends to move in impulses and corrections. The impulse is the primary direction of the trend. The correction is the minor countertrend move. 

Get in the habit of looking to the left on your trading chart and measuring these impulses and corrections. Frequently you’ll see patterns that repeat. 

For example, an 8-point move higher, followed by a 3-point move lower, then...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4517.00 stop 4511.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -36 to +14 with China/HK Bearish and the west mildly Bullish.  

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Flexcasting

Forecasting is tough. You can find and analyze all the available evidence and still get it totally wrong. That’s where flexibility comes in. Hence the word “Flexcasting.” 

Here’s an example:

1. Historically the S&P trends long the best on Fridays. Maybe it’s due to short covering before the weekend. Maybe it’s just the high spirits going into two days off. It doesn’t matter. The evidence is there.

2. There are...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered and the levels remain on the chart.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4430.00 stop 4425.75. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +64 to -36 with most major world markets modestly Bearish.  

Catalysts: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG Index, Import Prices @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Fed’s Williams @ 9:25. Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Waller @ 10:30. Fed’s Barr @ 10:35. 

Quick Tip: Tops & Bottoms

Here’s a great exercise in price pattern recognition that will help you with your entries and exits. 

Scan any price chart in your favorite time intervals. Look at the swing highs and lows of the price movement. Mark the “V” bottoms and “round” tops....

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: There was a typo on the short yesterday, well below price. The long didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4364.75 stop 4360.75. Short 4498.00 stop 4502.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to +7 in a world of continuing mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: CPI (watch Core) @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:45. 

Quick Tip: Big Picture

What’s your Big Picture? The correct answer depends on your time horizon (intended holding period) and trading chart time interval. 

If you’re a day trader using a 5 or 10-minute chart, you’d be out by the end of the day and watching the behavior of the 30 or 60-minute chart. 

If you’re a swing trader using a 60-minute chart, you’d be out in...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: There was a typo on the short yesterday, well below price. The long didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4364.75 stop 4360.75. Short 4498.00 stop 4502.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to +7 in a world of continuing mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: CPI (watch Core) @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:45. 

Quick Tip: Big Picture

What’s your Big Picture? The correct answer depends on your time horizon (intended holding period) and trading chart time interval. 

If you’re a day trader using a 5 or 10-minute chart, you’d be out by the end of the day and watching the behavior of the 30 or 60-minute chart. 

If you’re a swing trader using a 60-minute chart, you’d be out in...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4397.50 stop 4402.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +29 to -71 with all major world markets very Bearish. 

Catalysts: UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Hangover from Powell’s comments.   

Quick Tip: Stops

To survive and thrive in trading managing risk is critical. The basic component in your risk management plan is the stop loss (how much you are willing to lose on each trade). 

There are many types of stop loss methods including:

1. Dollar

2. Maximum Adverse Excursion 

3. Volatility

4. Moving Average

5. Time

6. Opposing signal 

7. Percent Retracement

Like your choice in style of trading, your stop loss method needs to resonate with your personality. You...