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Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.
Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets):
Buy 4521.00 stop 4517.00. Short 4581.00 stop 4584.75.
The World Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +57 to -50 with all major world markets Bearish. Sentiment is changing direction back and forth rapidly. This creates trading challenges especially for trend strategies.
Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30.
Quick Tip: Stats Rule!
Here’s an important quote from Nassim Taleb, celebrity author of Black Swan and Antifragile, “Whether it’s Covid, vaccines, Bitcoin, or stuff about elections, we’re swayed by the anecdote. So, our world is becoming more complex, requires more statistical sophistication while social media is driving us to the most primitive way of thinking.”
Basically, he’s saying that we can be swayed by single or random events or stories rather than statistics, numbers, and scientific rigor.
This pertains to trading perfectly. You see a one-off winning event and are wanting to repeat it. Maybe it even happened a few times. But how robust is that analysis? Not at all.
Before changing your plan or trading the anomaly you just saw, do some research. If you’re able to code the event in back-testing software like EasyLanguage from TradeStation, do it. If not you’ll need to scan the prior price charts by hand.
What are you looking for? Start with a sample size of 30 events. If the results showed a positive result you might have found something. The problem is the sample size is small, your margin of error is around +/-18%. But it’s worth doing a bit more research. Get to a 100-trade sample size and your margin of error drops in half. Now you’re motivated to continue the research.
Our team day-trades multiple strategies with edge in a live online environment. The research on our edge is updated and analyzed weekly. Join the team, learn the strategies, and trade live with us daily for 30 days. New lower rate available now. Money back if you’re not blown away!
Trade Fearlessly,
Mike Siewruk
P.S. Forward this blog to your trading buddies. Share in the wealth!
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