Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +36 to +21 with sentiment mixed. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods orders @ 8:30.  Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. 

Welcome to Poker Week! 

There are plenty of similarities between trading and poker. For example, both require tremendous discipline and superb risk management. 

One excellent book every trader should read is Zen and the Art of Poker by Larry Phillips. This week’s blog is dedicated to 5 key lessons from the book. Enjoy!

Lesson #1: Fold More Often

The first thing you’ll learn to become a winning poker player is this: Fold more often. Wait for the best cards. Be patient. 

Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? In fact, most gamblers would run for the door looking for action elsewhere. 

Successful trading,...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +43 to +36 with a most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Powell & New Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:30, 13:45, 14:15. 

Quick Tip: Drop the Ego

One of the hardest transitions to make as a trader is the reframing of your belief about winning and losing. We were raised defining winning as good and losing as bad. Now we must change that belief.

Mark Douglas, author of two books on trading psychology said, “When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” 

Curtis Faith, one of the original Turtle Traders and author of Way of the Turtle, summed it up succinctly: “Winning traders think in the present time and...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +7 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility low.

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.   

Quick Tip: Re-Starting

When you start trading you’re obviously attracted to the potential gains and entrepreneurial freedom from traditional work. But trading is not easy to master and losing in the beginning is normal. This is why learning to trade in simulation mode makes sense. 

Of course, simulated trading can only teach you execution. It doesn’t address the psychological challenges of winning, losing, being right, and being wrong. Still, it’s the best “first step.”

Fast forward to once you’re a profitable trader. You’ve experienced winning and losing but you’ve built the confidence to manage the losing streaks because they’ve...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +79 to -50 with renewed selling and sticky volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. Fed’s Barkin @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: Try Waiting 

Successful trading skills are very different in many cases than how we’ve been conditioned to believe and behave. We were all taught to work hard and smart to control the outcome of our efforts. In trading we cannot control whether we win or lose but we can control how much we lose. 

Some market conditions are more difficult than others to even control the losses! What’s the solution? 

Here’s some advice from arguably one of the best traders in history, Jim Rogers. 

He said “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I must do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -7 to +79 with all thoughts of the correction vanishing. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Collins @ 12:00. 10-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Change It

Popular trader psychologist and author Brett Steenbarger said, “The greatest enemy of change is routine.” 

I had to stop and think about this. Over the years I’ve learned that routines are healthy. They are habits and assuming they’re good for you, they’re important to have. I started a morning routine, a pre-trading routine, a midday routine, and a nighttime routine. 

So now I’m being advised to change all that? 

Not at all. Steenbarger was referring to the time you spend between your routines, in particular while trading. The pre-trading routine is important. Keep it. 

But don’t go on...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -100 to -7 with mixed world sentiment on stabler volatility. Tokyo +10%. 

Catalysts: Trade Balance @ 8:30. Dip buyers testing the water. 

Quick Tip: See the Big Picture

Traders can often get caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations of the market, much like people who live their lives without pausing to reflect. 

In Larry Wilson’s book, Play to Win: Choosing Growth Over Fear in Work and Life, he emphasizes the importance of stepping back and seeing the bigger picture to make better-informed decisions. 

For day traders, this means taking a break from the extreme volatility yesterday and understanding the cause(s). 

Wilson also teaches us about the two life orientations that you must choose between.

1. Play to win.

2. Playing not to lose. 

What’s the difference? 

People who have a ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +86 to -50 with all major world markets Bearish except the USA with tech leading the way. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI and Construction Spending @ 10:00. AAPL & AMZN earnings after the bell. 

Quick Tip: Three Facts

Most of your success in trading will come from your ability to manage your psychology about winning and losing and being right or wrong. Unfortunately, we’ve all been raised to believe that winning is good, losing is bad, being right is good, being wrong is bad. The market is different. 

One of my favorite books on trading is Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van Tharp. He gets this game from a psychological perspective really well. 

Here are three facts about trading success he uncovered in his research of successful traders/investors. They...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold.

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -7 to +86 with all major world markets strongly Bullish. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00, Press Conference @ 14:30. META reports after the close. BOJ raises rates.

Quick Tip: Disqualifying 

Traditional work (your job) makes becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, but because it instills a belief that is NOT helpful in trading. 

What is it? Always doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on this.” Or “Wednesdays are difficult days to get anything done, so I’m going to loaf.” 

In trading NOT entering a trade is not only OK it’s ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but had a superb week of gains and may be back in business on Monday. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -71 to +36 with all most world markets mildly Bullish on fading volatility. 

Catalysts: PCE/Personal Income @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment (revised). 

Quick Tip: How Not to Confirm

Many traders use a two-step process to enter their trades. The first is called a “setup.” Certain conditions appear ripe for an entry. The second step is called “confirmation.” The final evidence says pull the trigger. 

Here’s an example: Our trend strategy will signal that a trend is starting based on a chart pattern and current volatility. But that is not when the entry occurs. We wait for confirmation by looking for additional signals, then buy on a retracement to reduce...