Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5745.00 stop 5740.00. Short 5797.75 stop 5801.25

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +42 to +33 with most major world markets Bullish but the S&P futures are not participating. China reopens tonight.

Catalysts: Fed’s Bowman @ 13:00, Kashkari @ 13:50. Consumer Credit @ 15:00. 

Quick Tip: Keep On

Every successful person in trading and in life has gone through barriers and setbacks to achieve their success. 

In trading everyone deals with losing streaks, drawdowns, unfilled winning trades, slippage, internet outages, criticism from family and friends, and more. 

While there are many changes you can make to improve your trade plan and behavior there is one underlying quality you must have. Persistence. 

“I have not failed. I have just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” Thomas Edison

“I have failed again and again throughout my life. That’s why I’ve been successful.” Michael Jordan

"Success...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5701.50 stop 5695.75. No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -40 to -17 with sentiment mixed leaning Bearish. China closed for a holiday week. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. S&P Services PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders, Fed’s Schmid @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 10:40. Middle East tension.

Quick Tip: Obscure Biases

Once you’re introduced to the psychological side of trading you find that we all have biases that affect the quality of our decision making. 

Some are well known like Outcome Bias (judging the trade to be good because it was a winner, not because you executed properly) and Recency Bias (the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events). 

I became fascinated with biases and wanted to search for obscure examples. ChatGPT helped. Here are a few that traders should be aware of to improve their performance. 

Bandwagon Effect: The tende...

Yesterday’s results: The short entry at 5808.00 triggered minutes before the close and failed. Day traders would pass on the trade, swing traders took the loss. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5790.75 stop 5785.00. No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +30 with sentiment mostly Bullish. China/HK closed for a holiday week. 

Catalysts: S&P Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI, Prices, Construction Spending & JOLTS @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 11:00, Cook @ 11:10.

Quick Tip: Biorhythms

I’m not sure if there is truth to the biorhythm theory that we are affected by three cycles: physical, emotional, and intellectual. But there is no question our performance at just about anything cycles. Winning, losing, flatlining. 

I watched the Detroit Lions quarterback, Jared Goff set a record yesterday completing ALL of his 18 passes in a rout over the Seattle Seahawks. Last week he performed “OK” at best. 

Trading is considered a performance activity like at...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5781.50 stop 5775.75. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +7 to +86 with all major world markets very Bullish on China’s commitment to stimulus. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims & Durable Goods, @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Powell speaks (pre-recorded) @ 9:20. Yellen speaks @ 11:15. Multiple other Fed speakers all day. 

Quick Tip: Motivation

To succeed in trading (actually, anything in life) you must be motivated. There will always be setbacks, frustrations, losses, failures, and rejections. If you’re not motivated you won’t persist. You’ll quit and carry that psychological “loss” with you. Collect enough of those and you’ll be miserable. 

The answer is to get and stay motivated. But how? Find your unsatisfied need. You don’t require motivation for anything that you’re already satisfied with. You don’t even think about it. If you have enough money for acce...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5698 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5630.00 stop 5626.25 (filtered out during FOMC release between 14:00 and 15:00). No short suggestion. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +33 to +8 with sentiment mixed. Waiting on FOMC. 

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Rate Decision @ 14:00, press conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Don’t Retire

You’ve probably heard or read the best ways to have a long and fulfilling retirement: Exercise regularly, sleep more, eat healthy, drink moderately, stop smoking, and minimize stress. 

Here’s one thing you might not have heard about: Connect with people who have the same purpose. It turns out that loneliness is a killer. 

Living in Florida I’m frequently asked when out socially if I’m retired. I’m not and never will be, in the classic sense. Why? To keep my mind sharp. Learning and reading are great, but nothing beats interaction with peop...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5422.25 just missed picking the bottom of a wild session, offering a 4.75-point scalp before stopping out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5484.75 stop 5480.75. Short 5656.25 stop 5660.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -21 to +57 with most major world markets firmly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PPI, Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-year bond auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Self-Serving Bias

Trading is more psychological than mathematical. Although the quants might disagree, if you study other successful traders you’ll see they do agree. 

Aside from our human problems about “winning is good, losing is bad” and “being right is good, being wrong is bad,” we have biases to contend with. There are plenty. 

One bias I discovered recently while reading Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions by Annie Duke, arguably the best tournament poker female who ever played, is Self-Serving Bias. 

Simply put this bias has us giving credit to our skills when w...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +64 with all major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. UofM Revised Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you haven’t read the last four blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #5: Maximizing Wins

In poker, as in trading, one universally agreed upon tenet is “minimize your losses and maximize your gains.” But what is the proper way to achieve that outcome?

Imagine you’re playing poker, and you get a powerful hand. Your reaction should be to raise the bet. Novice players make the mistake of slow betting the hand instead of raising. They want to keep players in the hand to maximize the pot and their winnings.

The problem is more cards are coming and your powerful hand might end up in s...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -7 to +29 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @15:30. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last three blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Three “Ps”

If you played poker once a month and your opponents played every day, who is more likely to win? The same applies to golf, tennis, chess, and trading. 

While we don’t have a single opponent in trading we do have someone on the other side of our trade betting we’re wrong. Might they be a better trader? 

Practice, practice, practice. The key to excelling at anything you do is repetition. And if you want to turbocharge your practice, approach it with the intent of teaching it. 

Here’s some t...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to -7 with Asia Bearish and Europe mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the close. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read the last two blog posts now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable for traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #3: Think Long Term

Long term thinking doesn’t mean you should have a trade plan that only takes long term trades. It means the results in the short term are not relevant. What is relevant is your overall success. 

This is a tough pill to swallow for the short term trader. Some have daily or weekly income goals. They’re thinking short term. But how do they handle a few losing days or weeks in a row? 

A great analogy comes from poker champion Bobby Baldwin. He said “Poker is one continuous game” which goes on forever and star...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +21 to +14 with sentiment mixed and volatility lower. 

Catalysts: S&P Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. 

Welcome back to Poker Week! If you didn’t read yesterday’s blog now is a great time to do so. All week we’re exploring poker lessons that are also invaluable to traders. Enjoy!

Lesson #2 Big Wins Vanish

Trading results, just like poker results, cycle between winning streaks, losing streaks, and flat periods where wins and loses cancel each other out. Let’s focus on winning streaks today. 

Whether it’s one monster winning trade or a series of winning trades, you’ll likely start to feel invincible. It will last for a period in which you won’t even think about the losing streaks or flat periods when it took all the courage you had to continue trading. You’ll feel calm, relaxed, and arrive at a state that you thin...