Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is rapidly improving. Stay tuned. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +21 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Building Permits/Housing Starts @ 8:30. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 13:25. 

Quick Tip: Sell or Hold? 

Money messes with our heads. Until you get a grip on the emotions associated with winning and losing, you’re unlikely to succeed. 

Here’s a viewpoint I learned from one of the all-time great traders, Larry Williams: “More money is lost due to overstaying positions (greed) than exiting due to the fear of losing money.” 

Your fear is likely solved by using stops that lose an amount of money you can accept. Easy enough.

If Larry is correct, and I do believe he is, then greed is solved by pre-planned profit targets and open trade management. Planning targets is easy, open trade management requires skill and discipline. 

Here’s an example: The chart abo...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) dumps from -14 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: MFG & Services Flash PMI @ 9:45. New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Inventories @ 10:30. Bearish hangover from GOOG/TSLA earnings. 

Quick Tip: Expensive Options

Traders going long want (need) to buy low and sell high. What may be more important, if available, is a clue that something non-publicly known is about to happen forcing the stock to rise quickly. This might be an earnings release, new product, acquisition, etc. The idea is that smart money knows something the public doesn’t and trades that information. 

Following smart money buys in the options market has edge. You want this. The obvious question is how do you find them? 

Larry McMillan, in his excellent book Options as a Strategic Investm...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) reverses from +36 to -14 with many major world markets motionless. 

Catalysts: Existing Home Sales & Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. TSLA & AMZN earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Strategy Death

This Volume Profile strategy has been in a drawdown for some time. It’s getting painful to document the setups/results every day, but it must be done. Otherwise, how would we know if the strategy is worth trading again? 

What I’ve noticed in the daily review is that the levels are not the main problem. It appears the entry and exit rules are. Fortunately, we have thousands of trades documented, each with 47 data points, and this offers us a significant research opportunity to solve the problem. Stay tuned. 

Why am I sharing this with you? 

Two reasons: 

1) Documenting and reviewing your tradin...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -36 to -14 with sentiment mixed with low volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Kugler @ 14:45.  

Quick Tip: Volatility Stops

Price is either trending or not, volatile or not. Your results will largely depend on the rules you apply to these four Market States. 

In the chart above I’m trading our intraday trend strategy. It performs best when the market is trending on LOW volatility. 

After the open price chopped up and down in a range that was volatile but not extremely so. Once the signal to enter the trend triggered, you’ll notice the volatility slowed considerably. All the candles were narrower range and smoothly ascending. You’ll also notice that price moved slower. That trade lasted ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Thursday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +21 to -43 with mosrt major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Flash MFG & Services PMI @ 9:45. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Being Different

Here’s a great quote from Earl Nightingale: “If you set out to be successful at something and you don’t know how to do it, look around at what everybody else is doing, and don’t do that…”

This is especially true with trading. If everyone traded the same way there would be no counter parties. We need plenty of different styles and opposing viewpoints for the markets to exist. 

If you’re still struggling it’s a good idea to stop trading live money and start looking at alternative trading styles. Be open-minded. I’ve met too many traders over the past 24 years who are fixed on one way to trade because that’s what they started doing. 

Think of your prio...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold. To understand why, read yesterday's newsletter.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +57 to -29 with most major world markets Bearish.  

Catalysts: JOLTS & Factory Orders @10:00

Quick Tip: Your Hot List

If you’re a directional stock or options trader you know the importance of stock selection. All the trading skills in the world don’t matter if you’re trading assets that don’t move. 

You could look at the historical performance of stocks to assume their past will repeat in the future but that’s not ideal. 

There is a better way… a true Leading Indicator. Insider buying. Key executives have only one reason to write 7 and 8-figure checks to own more of their company. They think it’s going up and research has proven this to be true.

From "The Effect of CEO Insider Trading on Firm Performance” published in the Journal of Business Research in 2021. This study found t...