Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -36 to -14 with sentiment mixed with low volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Business Inventories & Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Kugler @ 14:45.  

Quick Tip: Volatility Stops

Price is either trending or not, volatile or not. Your results will largely depend on the rules you apply to these four Market States. 

In the chart above I’m trading our intraday trend strategy. It performs best when the market is trending on LOW volatility. 

After the open price chopped up and down in a range that was volatile but not extremely so. Once the signal to enter the trend triggered, you’ll notice the volatility slowed considerably. All the candles were narrower range and smoothly ascending. You’ll also notice that price moved slower. That trade lasted ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Monday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) improves from -7 to +21 with Asia Bullish and the west mixed.

Catalysts: Powell’s Text ahead of Testimony @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:15, Powell & Yellen @ 10:00, Bowman @ 13:30. 

Quick Tip: Catalysts

Whether you’re a day, swing, or position trader one thing that must happen for your trade to really move is a catalyst. This could be news, earnings, economics, and many other events. 

A strong catalyst helps in several ways. Price moves quicker and usually farther than normal. Volume increases for better liquidity. 

Ideally, you’ll be proactive in finding potential catalysts that have not hit the mainstream yet. On our Swing Trading Stock/Options team, we get an early peak by monitoring Insider Buying and Unusual Options Activity. Both occasionally precede a publicly announced catalyst. Timin...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold... but is improving and likely out of the drawdown soon.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -14 to +57 with all most major world markets very Bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP NFP Change @ 8:15. Jobless Claims & Trade Balance @ 8:30. Services PMI (Final) @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. Futures market closes @ 1:15 ET for the holiday.

Quick Tip: Trend or Reversal?

You might be thinking that trading trends is safer than picking turning points. Many strategies focus on trading in the direction of a larger time frame trend. This makes sense and it generally works well. 

But it’s not necessarily “safer.”  Your initial priority is making sure your trade plan rule set has “edge,” meaning over time it’s profitable. After you have that the idea of “safe” becomes irrelevant. Trend following strategies have fe...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +29 with most major markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.   

Quick Tip: Stop Struggling

If you’re struggling to get profitable or consistent in your trading there is a simple, proven solution. 

Join a team. 

There is a reason why the banks, hedge funds, and prop shops have all their traders trading in teams, rather than letting them trade alone in isolation. It works better. 

Here’s some evidence: 

From “The trading performance of individual investors” published in The Journal of Finance found that…Trading teams outperformed individual traders in terms of profitability and risk-adjusted returns. The study suggested that collaboration within teams leads to better decision-making and risk management strategies, ultimately enhancing performance.

In “Emotional Support a...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: This strategy is on hold. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -43 to +7 with sentiment mixed. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Announcement @ 14:00. FOMC Press Conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: FOMC Moves

Everyone knows the pattern on FOMC day tends to be range-bound before the announcement and spiky afterward. This should help your trade selection and planning. 

In fact, if you have solid historical data on your strategy’s performance on FOMC day you might not trade at all. It’s always better to have some probabilities at hand. Keep accurate records whether you took the trades or not. 

The Federal Funds Rate announcement releases at 2PM ET. You might think the highest volatility is within the 30-minute interval afterward. Historically, it’s the next 30-minute interval, immediately after the Press Conference starts at 2:30PM ET.  

Direction and move for both inte...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today.  

Tuesday’s results: Price whipsawed the volume level stopping out both trades.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from -21 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Williams @ 13:45. Beige Book @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Waiting 

I grew up in Michigan. A local saying about the weather was “Wait a day, it’ll change.” Now I live in Florida where during the rainy season you can drop your waiting time to an hour!

Markets are very similar. They trend up or down and then move sideways. Back and forth. Patience pays off and impulsivity gets hammered. 

This cyclicality applies to your strategy performance too. You’ll have winning streaks, flat periods, and losing streaks. Given this reality you need rules to manage each condition to prosper, even survive. 

Here’s an example: The volume levels suggested here are one component of an overall strategy th...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5082.75 stop 5078.25. Short 5176.00 stop 5181.75.

Friday’s results: Neither trade setup triggered.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +64 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Waiting on FOMC. 

Quick Tip: Which Contracts?

One of the many benefits of day trading Futures is there are many markets to trade. Stock indexes, currencies, interest rates, metals, energies, etc. Each of these markets will have its own structure at any given time: Trending or not, volatile, or not. 

The question becomes which contract(s) you should trade and when. Here’s a quick look at filtering for candidates: 

1. Volume. Without adequate volume you’ll experience slippage and not perform as well in the real world. 

2. Margin. Check with your broker and determine whether your account size can afford the margin required. Keep in mind that all brokers will give you more margin than you should use. Keep ...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5032.50 stop 5027.25. Short 5176.00 stop 5181.75.

Monday’s results: The buy at 5004.75 missed filling by 1.25 points and ran 60+ points to the short at 5070.50, which only offered a 6+ point scalp. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +57 to +43 as the world remains mildly Bullish. Positive note: the UK’s FTSE 100 index hit a record high. 

Catalysts: Services & MFG PMI Flash @ 9:45. New Home Sales & Richmond Fed MFG Index @ 10:00. 2-Year Treasury auction @ 13:01. 40% of the S&P 500 will report earnings this week. 

Quick Tip: Wiggle Room

The strategy that uncovers the turning points in this blog is called Volume Profile. It uses volume at price, not in time, to determine fair value. How traders buy and sell around these high-volume price levels will vary based on their own risk tolerance and other indicators they may use for confluence. 

For the ruleset I follow, yesterday was a heartbreaker for me. The buy level suggested was just ...