Yesterday’s results: Buying 5847.75 stopped out. Shorting 5891.00 filled in the Globex @ 20:42 ET and ran for 15+ points, still open. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.75 stop 5903.75 if price retraces down from above. Short 5865.00 stop 5869.75 if price retraces up from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +21 to -43 with most major world markets Bearish on rising volatility.

Catalysts: ADP Payrolls @ 8:15. GDP @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. GOOG revenue/earnings beat gives AI a boost. 

Quick Tip: Insider Influence

Your trading toolbox probably includes tools for the analysis of technical, fundamental, and sentiment data. All good. 

Significant research by Wall Street and academia has proven that Insider buying is predictive of positive abnormal future stock price performance. Of course, when that abnormal positive move happens varies widely and understanding that is key to successfully using Insider buying data....

Friday’s results: Buying 5851.50 was only good for a 4.25-point scalp. The short idea didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5847.75 stop 5842.25. Short 5904.50 stop 5909.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from +14 to +36 with all major world markets neutral to mildly Bullish on low volatility.

Catalysts: Dallas Fed MFG Index @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Alpha Searching 

Our day trading team meets every morning between 9:00 and 10:30 AM ET to swap ideas on trades across several strategies. Some days are very active, others quiet. Lately it seems the market has chopped sideways during our sessions and made the better moves later in the day. 

As the host it’s challenging to find commentary when setups aren’t setting up!

For those that also swing trade options, there is plenty to talk about. Our swing trading team only meets once weekly but when you’re running a portfolio of trades with more candidates available almost daily, the analysis and review are plentiful...

Yesterday’s results: The suggested trade didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5908.75 stop 5903.75 if price retraces back from above. Short 5869.00 stop 5873.00 if price retraces back from below.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -29 to -14 with most of the world mildly Bearish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Bowman @ 9:00, Barkin @ 12:00. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Beige Book @ 14:00. TSLA earnings after the close. 

Quick Tip: Short Interest

Short interest is a great “off-the-price-chart” indicator you can add to your research for stock and option trades. It’s the number of shares of a particular stock that have been sold short but have not yet been bought back (closed). 

If short interest is high, it suggests bearish sentiment and an unusually low short interest suggests bullish sentiment.

Here are two popular metrics that you can analyze for edge: 

Short Interest Ratio (SIR) or Days to Cover - Tot...

Yesterday’s results: Neither trade idea triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5888.50 stop 5884.50. Short 5885.25 stop 5889.25 if price retraces from below. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -36 to zero with mixed sentiment, the east is Bearish, the west is Bullish on increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories, Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 11:00. Janet Yellen (tentative). 

Quick Tip: Easy Options

Having a small account shouldn’t prevent you from swing trading stocks. Your solution is to substitute options. With over 700 stocks that have liquid options you have an abundance of choice. 

Plenty of new traders shy away from options. Their perception is they’re complex and hard to learn. They can be complex, and they can be made simple as well. 

Our swing trading team uses a stock-picking strategy that finds w...

Yesterday’s results: Buying 5861.25 offered a 4-point scalp. Shorting 5859.00 offered a 6.75-point scalp. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5823.25 stop 5820.00. Short 5908.50 stop 5912.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) slides from -29 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish on modest volatility. 

Catalysts: Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. Earnings continue (individual stocks can have a big market impact, consider ASML/NVDA yesterday). 

Quick Tip: Invisible Demand

All markets are influenced by the forces of supply and demand. More demand than supply will push the markets higher. This natural law works on every tradable asset. 

But is all demand visible on a price chart? For indexes, currencies, and commodities, I would argue yes. They are mostly institutional markets, and the footprints large traders leave can be found. Our team trades a chart-based Supply/Demand strategy that has a real edge. 

For individual stocks I would argue yes, but not always. While instituti...

Yesterday’s results: No trades triggered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5789.50 stop 5786.25. Short 5787.00 stop 5790.25 if price retraces back up from below (filtered out during CPI release). 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from zero to +21 with sentiment mixed with Asia somewhat volatile, not so much the west. 

Catalysts: CPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Fed’s Cook @ 9:15, Barkin @ 10:30, Williams @ 11:00. 30-Year Bond Auction @ 13:00. 

Quick Tip: Multi-Strat 

Yesterday’s price action did not trigger any trades in the S&P futures for two of our strategies, Volume Profile and Volatility Reversal. Plenty of patience is required when day trading and not getting a quality setup. 

Fortunately, we also trade an intraday Trend/Momentum strategy that ran for 38.25 points (see chart above). It’s not uncommon for the strategies to diverge. Market conditions change and so should your choice of strategy. 

We did utilize the Volume Profile levels to our advantage, however....

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5705.75 stop 5700.00. No short level today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +93 to +7 with Asia Bullish and the west modestly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Fed’s Harker speaks @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Choices

The first serious sports car I bought was painted gold. It was the only one of that model the dealer had at the time and they were hard to get. I didn’t love the color, but I really wanted the car. 

Most of the time we have choices and that’s a good thing. Traders have plenty of choices. Maybe too many. Which asset to trade, how many shares/contracts, entries, exits, etc. That’s why you should have a plan and stick to your rules. 

One of the choices I’ve noticed many traders don’t have is which strategy to execute. It seems they learn one and stick with it. Market conditions change and not all strategies work well in all markets. Having no choice leaves yo...

Yesterday’s results: No trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Nothing tradeable today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +8 to +93 with all major world markets very Bullish. Contrarian alert (there will be profit taking, maybe today). 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Philly Fed MFG Index @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Herd Following

Trend following as a trading strategy is effective and popular among hedge funds. But they don’t all use the same algorithm. They want to be different enough to compete for better returns and the new money to manage that will come pouring in. 

With AI gaining popularity in the trading world, you can imagine that one day there might be no one to trade against. As AI matures, everyone will have access to “all knowledge.” Why wouldn’t everyone use the best rule set? 

This is an interesting challenge that is on the mind of Gary Gensler, head of the SEC. In a Bloomberg article he warned that with AI “too many brok...

Yesterday’s results: No price levels available due to contract rollover. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buy 5698.00 stop 5693.25. No short levels above. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from zero to +33 with most major world markets Bullish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Retail Sales @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories, Housing Market Index & Fed’s Logan @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Complacent?  

We all trade to win and make a profit. The ups and downs happen along the way. The time to get laser-focused is when you’re feeling like you don’t need to. 

The recent rally in the S&P has the stock indexes at or near all-time highs. Our team’s swing trading portfolio had some incredible gains last week. One trade earned over 700% in two days. It’s natural when everything is effortlessly going your way to relax and enjoy the ride. 

But complacency is a dangerous condition. It precedes fear. You’ve likely heard Buffett’s famous quote “We try to be greedy wh...

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: This strategy remains on hold but is improving during the Globex session, not the day session. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +7 again with sentiment mixed on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @14:00. Waiting on Powell’s Friday speech. 

Quick Tip: Outside the Box

Trading with price charts and technical indicators is hugely popular. Being a visual learner, I find them useful too. Patterns and colored indicators “speak” to me quickly. With practice, you don’t need a calculator or much thought to analyze opportunities. 

Eighteen months ago, I learned a different approach. It made me realize I was confining my trade plan and limiting myself to being just another retail trader using an all-too-common approach. 

As usual, I started a deep dive into researching this new approach. For me that included finding significant evidence the approach had an edge. And before I added it to my trade plan I ...