Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4126.50 stop 4120.75. Short 4208.25 stop 4212.00

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -50 to +57 with most major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:00. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. AMZN/INTC earnings suggest risk-on. 

Quick Tip: Drop the Ego

One of the hardest transitions to make as a trader is the reframing of your belief about winning and losing. We were raised defining winning as good and losing as bad. Now we must change that belief.

Mark Douglas, author of two books on trading psychology said, “When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” 

Curtis Faith, one of the original Turtle Traders and author of Way of the Turtle, summed it up ...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4181.75 stopped out in the Globex session last night. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4126.50 stop 4120.75. Short 4270.75 stop 4276.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from zero to -50 with most major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.  

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, and Trade Balance @ 8:30. Fed’s Waller @ 9:00. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Bloomberg: Putin said there’s a risk that an escalating conflict could “spill far beyond the borders of the Middle East.” META down in pre-market on forecast of uncertainty. 

Quick Tip: When to Bank It

How traders approach their craft is very individual. Three traders using the same strategy may have different beliefs that vary their results, yet they follow the same asset selection and entry rules. 

For example, if you entered short near yesterday’s open (we had this signal...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4305.00 stop 4309.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility.  

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Earnings from 251 companies including META after the close. 

Quick Tip: Confirmation

Here’s a great quote from Jesse Livermore that deserves your attention, “"Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong."

In our effort to succeed we can devote too much effort to predicting the future. Good luck. The problem is that our predictions are correct just enough to keep us predicting. The feeling of getting into a winning trade at the start of the move is intoxicating...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4228.50 filled in the Globex last night and stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4261.50 stop 4267.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -64 to -57 with all major world markets Bearish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Treasuries hit 5%. Risk-off mood. 

Quick Tip: Cousin DOMO

Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO, is a negative emotional reaction traders have before they enter a trade. Price is gaining momentum and you’re on the sidelines. Impulsively, you break your entry rules and chase the trade. 

The problem with chasing is regardless of the outcome, win or lose, you lose psychologically. The wins only reinforce undisciplined trading. 

The best way to overcome FOMO is to have an abundance mindset. The markets are a never-ending parade of opportunity. If you know there will be many great setups coming...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4402.25 only ran for 8.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4285.75 stop 4280.00. Short 4415.00 stop 4419.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from -64 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed-speak @ 10:30. Israeli war updates.

Quick Tip: “Almost” Trades

Your control of trading is limited. You can control entry, exit, risk, and reward. You have no control over where the price goes. 

Friday’s short was planned well. Price rallied to a key volume level where shorting had edge, then reversed and went 8.25 points in your favor. Hopefully you found some profit in the move and tightened your stop loss. 

The second touch went a few ticks beyond the original stop printing the high of the session, then plunged 60 points. 

How do you feel about that? Frustrated? Here’s a better idea, feel ...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4397.25 ran for 20.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4402.25 stop 4406.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +64 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish.

Catalysts: JPM beats on earnings. Import Price Index @ 8:30. Fed-speak @ 9:00. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Israeli war escalates. 

Quick Tip: Edge on Friday the 13th?

It turns out there is no edge to be found on Friday the 13th. However, there is some interesting evidence about trading on any Friday. 

It's believed that stock markets tend to rally on Friday due to short covering by traders to avoid paying interest on a short position over the weekend. 

Our intraday trend strategy for the S&P futures shows a solid long bias throughout the day while successful shorts work well only until 11:00 ET. This may not apply to your strategy, which ...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (filtered OUT during CPI release if price is too volatile): 

Buy 4397.25 stop 4392.00. Short 4498.00 stop 4501.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +64 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: CPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 30-year bond auction @ 13:01.  

Quick Tip: Are You Blind?

You’re reading this so we’re not talking about your vision. No offense. There are so many cognitive biases that affect our trading results, and everyone has some. Possibly the worst bias is called Personal Blind Spot.

It occurs when you fail to recognize your weaknesses and shortcomings, leading to suboptimal trading decisions and poor performance.

One of the primary ways to resolve this bias is through self-reflection and self-awareness. You must take the time to assess your strengths and weaknesses and be brutally hon...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4378.50 filled in the Globex last night and is still open with 9.25 points favorable so far. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4338.75 stop 4333.00. Short 4402.25 stop 4408.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -21 to +64 with most major world markets firmly Bullish.

Catalysts: Fed speakers (leaning Dovish now) @ 13:00 & 15:00. Treasury yields ease. 

Quick Tip: More Trading Athletics 

Everyone wants a one-play touchdown. Anything less is just progress. But that persistent progress gets you to the touchdown more often than the rare single play score. 

The same concept applies to trading. You have financial goals. Occasionally you reach them quickly and the adrenaline of quick success is intoxicating. More often you’re chipping away at your progress. Modest wins, smaller losses. Grinding it out. 

The fact is that if you didn’t persevere thro...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4357.50 caught the top of the session and ran for 15 points to the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4378.50 stop 4383.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +42 to -21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed speakers @ 9:00, 9:15 & 13:30. IMF Meeting. Israeli war. Oil jumps. Earnings concerns.

Quick Tip: Trading Athletics

Once you’re proficient in trading a strategy it’s time to add another to your plan. 

Athletes do. There is no successful sports team or individual athlete who is a one-trick pony. Their game plan changes with the opponent. 

I had the privilege of teaching a retired pro football player trading. He was having a hard time understanding why we were putting so much effort into the trade plan. He wanted to make it simpler. He wanted a few rules that got him the win...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered, and the levels remain on the chart.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4357.50 stop 4363.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +42 with all major world markets mildly Bullish. China still closed for holiday. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. Expect volatility. 

Quick Tip: Fold More Often

There are many similarities between trading and poker. Larry Phillips, in his book Zen and the Art of Poker, starts in chapter 1 telling you to fold more often. Wait for the best cards. Be patient. 

Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? In fact, most gamblers would run for the door looking for action elsewhere. 

Successful trading, like poker, isn’t about excitement. It’s about winning over the long haul. 

Last night my friend Michael told me how he mastered his over-trading demon (which obviously led to plen...