Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: In a relatively narrow, slow session, neither level triggered. The levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4433.25 stop 4436.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +33 to -57 with all major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Fed Speakers @ 7:30, 8:00, 9:15, 10:00, and 13:25. Comments from the Fed’s Kashkari turn slightly hawkish. Today’s lineup of speakers should be closely monitored. 

Quick Tip: Context

You should have a trading strategy (or better yet, several) that is profitable over time. That’s called positive expectation or edge. It doesn’t mean they’re profitable all the time, just over enough time. 

If you are dedicated and document your strategy results by capturing the context of the market at the time of each trade, you will likely find additional edge. Knowing common statistics like wi...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4367.75 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4433.25 stop 4436.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) lifts from +25 to +33 with Asia very Bullish and the west mixed. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. The Middle East war is set to expand. Musk’s X/AI launches (along with other AI news). The UK is nearing a recession. 

Quick Tip: Your Ideal Timeframe

Establishing your trading timeframe before entry is critical. The shorter your timeframe the more frequent your trades are likely to be. This relates directly to how much time you want to devote to your trading. 

Our swing trading strategy for equities utilizes a key catalyst for stock selection: Large Insider buying. Why? Because Insiders know best about the prospects of their company. Historical research validates this. 

Large institutional options buyer...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4305.00 offered a 9.25-point move. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4275.75 stop 4270.00. Short 4367.75 stop 4371.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +25 with most major world markets modestly Bullish.

Catalysts: Employment Report @ 8:30. Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Which Market?

There are dozens of futures contracts available to trade. The question is which are best for you. Here’s a quick look at filtering for candidates: 

1. Volume. Without adequate volume you’ll experience slippage and not perform as well in the real world. 

2. Margin. Check with your broker and determine whether your account size can afford the margin required. Keep in mind that all brokers will give you more day-trading margin than you should use. Keep your per-trade risk to no more than 2% of your account, even if the...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (FOMC Filter applies from 14:00 to 15:00, no entries): 

Buy 4096.75 stop 4092.00. Short 4270.75 stop 4276.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to zero with Tokyo soaring and all other major world markets relatively flat. 

Catalysts: ADP Payroll @ 8:15. Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & JOLTS @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00 & Press Conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Trend or Reversal?

You might be thinking that trading trends sounds safer than picking a turning point. Many strategies focus on trading in the direction of a larger time frame trend. This makes sense and it works. 

But it’s not necessarily “safer.”  Your initial priority is making sure your trade plan rule set has “edge,” meaning over time it’s profitable. After you have that the idea of safe becomes irrelevant. Just trade the strategy that appeals to you psy...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4126.50 stop 4120.75. Short 4208.25 stop 4212.00

The World Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -50 to +57 with most major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:00. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. AMZN/INTC earnings suggest risk-on. 

Quick Tip: Drop the Ego

One of the hardest transitions to make as a trader is the reframing of your belief about winning and losing. We were raised defining winning as good and losing as bad. Now we must change that belief.

Mark Douglas, author of two books on trading psychology said, “When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.” 

Curtis Faith, one of the original Turtle Traders and author of Way of the Turtle, summed it up ...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4181.75 stopped out in the Globex session last night. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4126.50 stop 4120.75. Short 4270.75 stop 4276.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from zero to -50 with most major world markets Bearish on increasing volatility.  

Catalysts: GDP, Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, and Trade Balance @ 8:30. Fed’s Waller @ 9:00. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Bloomberg: Putin said there’s a risk that an escalating conflict could “spill far beyond the borders of the Middle East.” META down in pre-market on forecast of uncertainty. 

Quick Tip: When to Bank It

How traders approach their craft is very individual. Three traders using the same strategy may have different beliefs that vary their results, yet they follow the same asset selection and entry rules. 

For example, if you entered short near yesterday’s open (we had this signal...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4305.00 stop 4309.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility.  

Catalysts: New Home Sales @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Earnings from 251 companies including META after the close. 

Quick Tip: Confirmation

Here’s a great quote from Jesse Livermore that deserves your attention, “"Do not anticipate and move without market confirmation—being a little late in your trade is your insurance that you are right or wrong."

In our effort to succeed we can devote too much effort to predicting the future. Good luck. The problem is that our predictions are correct just enough to keep us predicting. The feeling of getting into a winning trade at the start of the move is intoxicating...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4261.50 only offered 7 points before stopping out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4305.00 stop 4309.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -57 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Flash MFG & Services PMI @ 9:45. Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. Treasury yields ease. MSFT & GOOG earnings after the close (applicable to Globex trading). 

Quick Tip: Small Winners

Trading has only four outcomes; big winners, small winners, small losers, and big losers. 

Allowing big losers is the kiss of death so keep what you’re risking small. Your small losers don’t need much analysis beyond stop loss optimization for varying market volatility. 

Your big winners are likely open managed or reaching a Ratio Exit (see the October 20th post for details). 

That leaves us with small winners. Looking at yesterda...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4228.50 filled in the Globex last night and stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4261.50 stop 4267.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -64 to -57 with all major world markets Bearish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Treasuries hit 5%. Risk-off mood. 

Quick Tip: Cousin DOMO

Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO, is a negative emotional reaction traders have before they enter a trade. Price is gaining momentum and you’re on the sidelines. Impulsively, you break your entry rules and chase the trade. 

The problem with chasing is regardless of the outcome, win or lose, you lose psychologically. The wins only reinforce undisciplined trading. 

The best way to overcome FOMO is to have an abundance mindset. The markets are a never-ending parade of opportunity. If you know there will be many great setups coming...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4402.25 only ran for 8.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4285.75 stop 4280.00. Short 4415.00 stop 4419.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from -64 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed-speak @ 10:30. Israeli war updates.

Quick Tip: “Almost” Trades

Your control of trading is limited. You can control entry, exit, risk, and reward. You have no control over where the price goes. 

Friday’s short was planned well. Price rallied to a key volume level where shorting had edge, then reversed and went 8.25 points in your favor. Hopefully you found some profit in the move and tightened your stop loss. 

The second touch went a few ticks beyond the original stop printing the high of the session, then plunged 60 points. 

How do you feel about that? Frustrated? Here’s a better idea, feel ...