Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4517.00 stop 4511.25. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from -36 to +14 with China/HK Bearish and the west mildly Bullish.  

Catalysts: Building Permits & Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Flexcasting

Forecasting is tough. You can find and analyze all the available evidence and still get it totally wrong. That’s where flexibility comes in. Hence the word “Flexcasting.” 

Here’s an example:

1. Historically the S&P trends long the best on Fridays. Maybe it’s due to short covering before the weekend. Maybe it’s just the high spirits going into two days off. It doesn’t matter. The evidence is there.

2. There are...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short at 4498.00 stopped out. The breakout ran for 19.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4430.00 stop 4425.75. Short 4598.50 stop 4604.25. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from +7 to +64 with all major world markets solidly Bullish. 

Catalysts: PPI, Retail Sales & Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Parabolic Moves

Yesterday was as fun as trading can be if you were long. Day, swing, or position trades all printed green.

For day trades you’re ready for a continuation or a reversal today. No worries. But for swing and position trades you have a tough decision to make. 

The S&P is in a near parabolic move up. These simply don’t last forever, sometimes not for long at...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: There was a typo on the short yesterday, well below price. The long didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4364.75 stop 4360.75. Short 4498.00 stop 4502.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to +7 in a world of continuing mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: CPI (watch Core) @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:45. 

Quick Tip: Big Picture

What’s your Big Picture? The correct answer depends on your time horizon (intended holding period) and trading chart time interval. 

If you’re a day trader using a 5 or 10-minute chart, you’d be out by the end of the day and watching the behavior of the 30 or 60-minute chart. 

If you’re a swing trader using a 60-minute chart, you’d be out in...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: There was a typo on the short yesterday, well below price. The long didn’t trigger. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4364.75 stop 4360.75. Short 4498.00 stop 4502.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to +7 in a world of continuing mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: CPI (watch Core) @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 10:00. Fed’s Goolsbee @ 12:45. 

Quick Tip: Big Picture

What’s your Big Picture? The correct answer depends on your time horizon (intended holding period) and trading chart time interval. 

If you’re a day trader using a 5 or 10-minute chart, you’d be out by the end of the day and watching the behavior of the 30 or 60-minute chart. 

If you’re a swing trader using a 60-minute chart, you’d be out in...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4397.50 stopped out. The breakout worked great but never retraced to fill (see Quick Tip below). 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4397.50 stop 4402.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -71 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and mostly low volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar of importance.  Waiting on CPI tomorrow. 

Quick Tip: Breakout Entries

The volume levels presented here can be traded as reversals or breakouts. The entry rules vary: 

Reversals: Enter at the price suggested. In solid trending markets look for further evidence of a potential reversal. Scaling in as price enters the level also works well.  

Breakouts: Allow the price to touch the stop from the reversal (we assume fill at touch). Look...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4397.50 stop 4402.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +29 to -71 with all major world markets very Bearish. 

Catalysts: UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Hangover from Powell’s comments.   

Quick Tip: Stops

To survive and thrive in trading managing risk is critical. The basic component in your risk management plan is the stop loss (how much you are willing to lose on each trade). 

There are many types of stop loss methods including:

1. Dollar

2. Maximum Adverse Excursion 

3. Volatility

4. Moving Average

5. Time

6. Opposing signal 

7. Percent Retracement

Like your choice in style of trading, your stop loss method needs to resonate with your personality. You...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither level triggered and remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4433.25 stop 4436.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -14 to +29 with most major world markets Bullish.  

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. 30-year Bond Auction @ 13:01. Powell speaks on a panel discussion titled "Monetary Challenges in a Global Economy" @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Trade THIS Way

Should you trade multiple strategies? Or focus on one? 

Given a big enough account diversification becomes mandatory. You’ve never heard of a hedge fund that ran “one” strategy. But what about those of us with relatively smaller trading accounts? There are pros and cons. 

Pros: 

More trading opportunities. When one strategy is waiting for entry,...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: In a relatively narrow, slow session, neither level triggered. The levels remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4433.25 stop 4436.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +33 to -57 with all major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Fed Speakers @ 7:30, 8:00, 9:15, 10:00, and 13:25. Comments from the Fed’s Kashkari turn slightly hawkish. Today’s lineup of speakers should be closely monitored. 

Quick Tip: Context

You should have a trading strategy (or better yet, several) that is profitable over time. That’s called positive expectation or edge. It doesn’t mean they’re profitable all the time, just over enough time. 

If you are dedicated and document your strategy results by capturing...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4305.00 offered a 9.25-point move. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4275.75 stop 4270.00. Short 4367.75 stop 4371.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +64 to +25 with most major world markets modestly Bullish.

Catalysts: Employment Report @ 8:30. Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Which Market?

There are dozens of futures contracts available to trade. The question is which are best for you. Here’s a quick look at filtering for candidates: 

1. Volume. Without adequate volume you’ll experience slippage and not perform as well in the real world. 

2. Margin. Check with your broker and determine whether your account size can afford the margin required. Keep in mind that all brokers will give you more day-trading margin than...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (FOMC Filter applies from 14:00 to 15:00, no entries): 

Buy 4096.75 stop 4092.00. Short 4270.75 stop 4276.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to zero with Tokyo soaring and all other major world markets relatively flat. 

Catalysts: ADP Payroll @ 8:15. Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & JOLTS @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00 & Press Conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Trend or Reversal?

You might be thinking that trading trends sounds safer than picking a turning point. Many strategies focus on trading in the direction of a larger time frame trend. This makes sense and it works. 

But it’s not necessarily “safer.”  Your initial priority is making sure your trade plan rule set has “edge,” meaning over time...