Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short idea was filtered out during PCE release, as noted.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5046.75 stop 5042.75. Short 5117.50 stop 5121.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +19 to +13 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI, ISM MFG Prices & Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Waller @ 10:15, Bostic @ 10:50, Daly @ 13:30, Kugler @ 15:30. 

Quick Tip: Not Gambling

The uninformed frequently consider trading a form of gambling. But even the trader who knows there are similarities and differences doesn’t always focus on the keys to taking the “gamble” out of their trade plan. 

Consider these and audit your personal trade plan for compliance. 

1. Trading uses probabilities from...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (all trades filtered during PCE release): 

Buy 5046.75 stop 5042.75. Short 5083.75 stop 5086.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -44 to +19 with mixed sentiment across the planet.  

Catalysts: PCE/Personal Income/Spending & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 10:50 and Mester @ 13:15.

Quick Tip: Consistency

Markets are either trending or not, volatile, or not. It should be no wonder that traders may have similar cycles of performance, winning streaks, losing streaks, consistency, and inconsistency. 

If you’re NOT in the zone, here’s a simple but highly effective checklist to work through. 

1. Take a break, clear your mind, and come back to trading with a fresh perspective.

2. Analyze your past trades...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: : Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (all trades filtered during GDP release): 

Buy 5046.75 stop 5042.75. Short 5117.50 stop 5121.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +38 to -44 with most major world markets Bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: GDP @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. Fed’s Bostic @ 12:00 and Williams @ 12:45. 

Quick Tip: Pros Agree

Three celebrated authors on trading success, Mark Douglas, Van Tharp, and Alexander Elder, all agree that one aspect of trading is crucially important: 

"The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading." - Mark Douglas

"Successful trading is not about being right; it’s about being disciplined. Discipline is the ability to follow one's trading plan,...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The trade idea never triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5073.00 stop 5068.50. No great shorts today. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +69 to +38 in a mildly Bullish world on plummeting volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Let’s see if there is any follow-through from the NVDA rally. 

Quick Tip: You’re the Enemy

Showing my age here quoting Walt Kelly’s Pogo cartoon: “We have met the enemy, and they are us.” 

Developing traders put so much time and effort into finding the best strategy and risk management plan (both important) that they ignore the real enemy in trading. 

Your personal psychology about winning or losing, and being right or wrong, will ruin your performance more than a mediocre...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points:Shorting 5040.25 was only good for a 5.25-point scalp. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 5026.00 stop 5021.75. Short 5022.50 stop 5026.75 if price falls below and retraces to entry.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +67 with all major world markets Bullish on rising volatility.  

Catalysts: PPI, Building Permits, Housing Starts @ 8:30. Fed’s Barr @ 9:10. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Fed’s Daly @ 12:10. 

Quick Tip: 4 Fears

You know that a winning trader is a confident trader, and a losing trader is a fearful trader. Part of your personal development plan should be eliminating your fears. 

Yes, fears. Plural. You can have more than one. Over the years teaching traders I’ve noticed different types of fear. 

1. The most obvious...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. The levels stay on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +25 to +19 with mixed sentiment and increasing volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed’s Mester @ 12:00. Plenty of earnings. 

Quick Tip: Sequencing 

If trading is 80% psychological that leaves 20% to the edge your strategy has. We really don’t know if the 80% figure is accurate but you’ll hear a big number like that from many skilled traders and coaches. Regardless the accuracy, how we behave as traders is vitally important. 

Back when racquetball was popular I was a competitive player and found a coach to improve my performance. Here’s the dialog from “lesson one.” 

...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4926.00 stop 4920.75. Short 4987.00 stop 4992.75.  

The World Index: (+100/-100) rises from zero to +25 with most major world markets mildly Bullish.

Catalysts: Final Services PMI @ 9:45. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Fed’s Bostic @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: Reinvention

Great performers, traders included, never quit when the inevitable roadblocks and challenges arise. They adjust, learn from their mistakes, and move forward. 

You’re heard the term “reinvent yourself.” Out of favor actors do it. Corporations do it. Sometimes traders must do it. 

Like many traders who enjoyed the Tech Bubble in the late ‘90’s, I was trading a momentum strategy that printed money. It was simple and easy. Even during...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4885.00 stop 4881.50. Short 4948.00 stop 4953.25

The World Index: (+100/-100) drops from +6 to zero with sentiment mixed worldwide on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Change @ 8:15. Employment Cost Index @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement & Press Conference @ 14:00/14:30. 

Quick Tip: One Good Habit?

In his excellent book Atomic Habits author James Clear named chapter 20 The Downside of Creating Good Habits. Darn good title! 

Here’s the gist of it: once we practice something enough to become skilled and automatic we become less aware of improving it. We stop looking for the mistakes. After all, once it’s a habit you’re not thinking about it...