Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested short @ 4049.75 was a 32.75-point runner. What you didn’t know was the opposing volume level (unpublished here) was a buy @ 4106.00. That runner, selling the morning top, came 2.75-points from 4106.00 and ran all the way back to 4049.75. Enough of the time, volume levels work just fine! Read the P.S. and get involved!

Quick Tip: Calibrating Edge

Every trader and any worthwhile educator of traders talks about edge. It’s what the casinos have. You can win any given day, but they will win every day. Edge is advantage. 

Edge is also mysterious to many traders. How do you find edge? Research is the best start but what are you looking for to validate it? 

Here’s a simple formula to calibrate and validate the edge in any trading strategy. 

1. Look at as many trade setups as you can find going back in time as far as you have...

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: No suggestions were given for Volume Profile with the expected (and arrived) volatility. Trend was the BIG winner from our multi-strat trading room. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from -7 to -79 with all major world markets bearish with spiking volatility. Expecting a wide range day with more downside trading than upside: This index at -79 historically moves -40 points average from open to low, +31 points average from open to high.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Powell confirmed the latest up move as a bear market rally. Worldwide we’re heading down.  

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (in fast moving markets consider a wider stop and less size): 

Sell 4049.75 stop 4055.25.

Buy 3982.00 stop 3976.25. 

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk 

P.S. Multiple strategies, software tools, teammates, and coaching. Learn why you should join...

Tuesday’s Results: The suggested short @ 3891.50 stopped out. 

Quick Tip: Reframe Losing

Our morning Live Trading Room is open for two hours. It’s recorded and posted to the website immediately afterward. There is a “cover” on each recording with a headline that summarizes the session (see above). 

Yesterday was one of those days when every trade I personally took failed. There were winning trades teed up by the multiple strategies we follow. In fact, our trend-following strategy killed it with the S&P. Not my trade selection, though.

Afterward, a team member texted me this: “The trading Gods simply wouldn’t give you a break today, and you still maintained your posture and calm demeanor throughout.” 

The fact is I didn’t feel badly yesterday. Losing happens. My daily cash risk is within my personal risk tolerance.

Winning and losing cycles. Sometimes those “streaks” are...

Thursday’s Results: Neither suggested level triggered. 

Quick Tip: Open Up

You have a rule-based plan with edge. If not, get one or quit trading. Rules in this case are meant to be followed. You want to be as machine-like as possible. Not easy for many of us, but that’s the goal.

Imagine that your plan is working fine. Your discipline following it is very good. Then you meet a trader who tells you there is a better way. 

What’s your reaction?

1. Nod politely, congratulate her on finding that “gem” and carry on doing what you’ve always done. 

OR…

2. Get excited, immediately re-write your rules, and expect a big improvement. 

You’ve probably met both types of traders. Fixed, disciplined, rarely willing to change and excitable, glib, and always changing. There is good and bad in both personality types. 

Consider a middle ground. When you hear of a “better...

Wednesday’s Results: CPI volatility blew price through the suggested buy @ 3772.50. 

Quick Tip: Don’t Trade

There are times when you shouldn’t trade. The CPI news yesterday was one of the times. Price became too volatile with slippage galore. There are other key catalysts you should monitor to know when not to trade. Some of the catalysts are asset-specific, like the EIA Petroleum Inventory Report (for oil). 

Add this simple step to your morning routine. Go to ForexFactory.com   even if you don’t trade currencies. Their economic calendar is one of the best. You can filter the calendar by currency, event type, and “impact” to get the exact information you need. 

If you trade stocks, you’ll need to know earnings release dates. Try EarningsWhispers.com. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (in fast moving markets consider a wider stop and less size): 

Sell 3806.50 stop 3812.25. 

Buy...

Tuesday’s Results: Neither suggested trade triggered. 

Quick Tip: The Calm Routine

Even if you don’t golf you’ve probably heard that it’s a mental game. Most athletics are. Trading is too. Dr. Richard Coop, author of the book “Mind Over Golf” advises players to have their own personal “pre-shot routine.” Let’s use his advice but change the details to improve our trading. 

1. If you’re approaching a trade entry with a negative feeling, pause and use some physical ritual to regain calm control and reset your concentration. The ritual may be standing up and stretching or closing your eyes and counting backward from 10 to 1. It can be whatever you want. 

2. To avoid the negative feelings going forward, develop your own pre-trade routine. This keeps stray thoughts that can be detrimental from entering your mind while trading. 

3. The trick is to develop this pre-trade routine...

Monday’s Results: Neither suggested trade triggered in another range-bound day. 

Quick Tip: THIS is Freedom!

It’s popular today to know your “Why” to achieve your goals. The idea is the more passionate about your goal you are the better you’ll persevere through the setbacks and challenges that inevitably occur. 

When asked what my “Why” is for trading and teaching I respond with one word: Freedoms. Plural. Freedom of time, location, and money concerns. 

Yesterday I saw a tweet from my friend and colleague Jeff Manson. He is also a trader and teacher. The header read “Good Morning FROM Viet Nam!”, a play on words from the movie. He is in Saigon, one stop on his travelling the world while trading and teaching online “tour.” Now THAT is Freedom! Thank you, Jeff, for pointing me to my next goal!

How about you? Think big. Set the goal. Make your “Why” a...

Friday’s Results: Neither suggested trade triggered in a range-bound day. 

Quick Tip: Abundance

The more trade setups you have available the choosier you can be in taking trades. Abundance is good. The opposite is true. Too few setups can find you taking trades that are not ideal. 

Given that markets are changing character from trend to range and volatile to quiet, the ideal solution for abundance is to have multiple strategies that are tuned for those varying conditions. 

In yesterdays’ Optimizing Multi-Strat Trading mini class we showed how to gain this edge. Watch the recording here (time sensitive discount offers expiring at midnight tonight!). 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (in fast moving markets consider a wider stop and less size): 

Sell 3943.00 stop 3947.25 (same as Friday).

Buy 3834.50 stop 3829.75 (same as Friday). 

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk

Thursday’s Results: The short @ 3900.75 stopped out. The breakout long was only good for 8 points. 

Quick Tip: Trend or Reversal?

You might be thinking that trading the trend sounds safer than picking a turning point. Many strategies focus on trading in the direction of a larger time frame trend. This makes sense and it works. 

But it’s not necessarily “safer.”  Your initial priority is making sure your trade plan rule set has “edge,” meaning over time it’s profitable. After you have that the idea of “safe” becomes irrelevant. Just trade the strategy that appeals to you psychologically. 

Here’s an even better idea: Learn both trend and reversal trading then use the correct strategy for the current market condition. Sounds simple but just like trading in general, not necessarily easy. Given enough research and statistical evidence,...

Friday’s Results: Friday’s Results: Neither trade suggestion triggered. 

Quick Tip: Volume/Share Bars

Trading can be simplified to the analysis of 3 variables: price, time, and volume. Using time-based charts is most common and important. In them you can see wide and narrow range bars/candles giving you evidence of where big moves started and slowed or stopped. Good to know. 

Another view that offers some “hidden” information is the Volume or Share bar. These are time independent. They paint a new bar after “X” number of shares/contracts have traded. If you’re trading an active futures contract like the S&P (or a stock like AAPL) you can have your share bars set to 10,000 (or more) to instantly “see” what volume filled in a move by simply counting the bars. That can be accomplished by adding a volume indicator to the chart, but with the share bars you’ll see the...