Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4367.75 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4336.25 stop 4332.50. Short 4433.25 stop 4436.75. 

The World Index: (+100/-100) lifts from +25 to +33 with Asia very Bullish and the west mixed. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. The Middle East war is set to expand. Musk’s X/AI launches (along with other AI news). The UK is nearing a recession. 

Quick Tip: Your Ideal Timeframe

Establishing your trading timeframe before entry is critical. The shorter your timeframe the more frequent your trades are likely to be. This relates directly to how much time you want to devote to your trading. 

Our swing trading strategy for equities utilizes a key catalyst for stock selection: Large Insider buying. Why? Because Insiders know best about the...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (FOMC Filter applies from 14:00 to 15:00, no entries): 

Buy 4096.75 stop 4092.00. Short 4270.75 stop 4276.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from +14 to zero with Tokyo soaring and all other major world markets relatively flat. 

Catalysts: ADP Payroll @ 8:15. Final MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & JOLTS @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Statement @ 14:00 & Press Conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Trend or Reversal?

You might be thinking that trading trends sounds safer than picking a turning point. Many strategies focus on trading in the direction of a larger time frame trend. This makes sense and it works. 

But it’s not necessarily “safer.”  Your initial priority is making sure your trade plan rule set has “edge,” meaning over time...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4261.50 only offered 7 points before stopping out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4181.75 stop 4177.50. Short 4305.00 stop 4309.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -57 to +21 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: Flash MFG & Services PMI @ 9:45. Richmond MFG Index @ 10:00. Treasury yields ease. MSFT & GOOG earnings after the close (applicable to Globex trading). 

Quick Tip: Small Winners

Trading has only four outcomes; big winners, small winners, small losers, and big losers. 

Allowing big losers is the kiss of death so keep what you’re risking small. Your small losers don’t need much analysis beyond stop loss optimization for varying market volatility. 

Your big winners are likely open managed or...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4402.25 only ran for 8.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4285.75 stop 4280.00. Short 4415.00 stop 4419.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases up from -64 to -36 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Fed-speak @ 10:30. Israeli war updates.

Quick Tip: “Almost” Trades

Your control of trading is limited. You can control entry, exit, risk, and reward. You have no control over where the price goes. 

Friday’s short was planned well. Price rallied to a key volume level where shorting had edge, then reversed and went 8.25 points in your favor. Hopefully you found some profit in the move and tightened your stop loss. 

The second touch went a few ticks beyond the original stop printing the high of the...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4397.25 ran for 20.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4402.25 stop 4406.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +64 to -64 with all major world markets Bearish.

Catalysts: JPM beats on earnings. Import Price Index @ 8:30. Fed-speak @ 9:00. UofM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. Israeli war escalates. 

Quick Tip: Edge on Friday the 13th?

It turns out there is no edge to be found on Friday the 13th. However, there is some interesting evidence about trading on any Friday. 

It's believed that stock markets tend to rally on Friday due to short covering by traders to avoid paying interest on a short position over the weekend. 

Our intraday trend strategy for the S&P futures shows a solid long bias throughout the day...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (filtered OUT during CPI release if price is too volatile): 

Buy 4397.25 stop 4392.00. Short 4498.00 stop 4501.50.

The World Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +64 with all major world markets Bullish. 

Catalysts: CPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 30-year bond auction @ 13:01.  

Quick Tip: Are You Blind?

You’re reading this so we’re not talking about your vision. No offense. There are so many cognitive biases that affect our trading results, and everyone has some. Possibly the worst bias is called Personal Blind Spot.

It occurs when you fail to recognize your weaknesses and shortcomings, leading to suboptimal trading decisions and poor performance.

One of the primary ways to resolve this bias is through self-reflection and...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4378.50 filled in the Globex last night and is still open with 9.25 points favorable so far. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4338.75 stop 4333.00. Short 4402.25 stop 4408.00.

The World Index: (+100/-100) soars from -21 to +64 with most major world markets firmly Bullish.

Catalysts: Fed speakers (leaning Dovish now) @ 13:00 & 15:00. Treasury yields ease. 

Quick Tip: More Trading Athletics 

Everyone wants a one-play touchdown. Anything less is just progress. But that persistent progress gets you to the touchdown more often than the rare single play score. 

The same concept applies to trading. You have financial goals. Occasionally you reach them quickly and the adrenaline of quick success is intoxicating. More often you’re chipping away at your progress....

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4357.50 caught the top of the session and ran for 15 points to the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4378.50 stop 4383.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) plummets from +42 to -21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed speakers @ 9:00, 9:15 & 13:30. IMF Meeting. Israeli war. Oil jumps. Earnings concerns.

Quick Tip: Trading Athletics

Once you’re proficient in trading a strategy it’s time to add another to your plan. 

Athletes do. There is no successful sports team or individual athlete who is a one-trick pony. Their game plan changes with the opponent. 

I had the privilege of teaching a retired pro football player trading. He was having a hard time understanding why we were putting so much...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered, and the levels remain on the chart.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4357.50 stop 4363.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) remains at +42 with all major world markets mildly Bullish. China still closed for holiday. 

Catalysts: Non-Farm Payrolls @ 8:30. Expect volatility. 

Quick Tip: Fold More Often

There are many similarities between trading and poker. Larry Phillips, in his book Zen and the Art of Poker, starts in chapter 1 telling you to fold more often. Wait for the best cards. Be patient. 

Doesn’t sound too exciting, does it? In fact, most gamblers would run for the door looking for action elsewhere. 

Successful trading, like poker, isn’t about excitement. It’s about winning over the long haul. 

Last night...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4277.25 stopped out after a 5.50-point bounce. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4357.50 stop 4363.25.

The World Index: (+100/-100) eases from -33 to -8 with Asia Bearish and the west mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change @ 8:15. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. OPEC Meeting (all day). Bond yields up. 

Quick Tip: More Risk

You certainly have a risk management plan. Without it you’ll fail at trading sooner rather than later. New traders think their chosen stop loss order is their risk management plan. Important, but not nearly enough. Here’s more risks you need to cover in your plan: Trade, Psychological, Market, Liquidity, Strategy, Technology, and Brokerage.

This game is looking riskier...