The Daily Market Forecast

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested short @ 4104.50 filled a bit late… like right after the Globex session opened last night, running for 24.25 points. 

Quick Tip: Sweet Dreams 

The futures market opens at 6:00 PM ET. It’s called the Globex session, and it is usually easier money than the day session.

Why? The participants are different. Day session volume brings out all the large lot and algo traders and that creates a noisy effect on price action. 

If you’re thinking “I don’t have the time to analyze the market and KNOW where to place those Globex trades” then you’re in luck. We provide our members a complete trading plan for the Globex session every market day around 5:15 PM ET, 45 minutes before the open. The day session plan arrives at 8:00 AM ET. Click the link below for details. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) inches...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither trade triggered.

Quick Tip: No Scarcity

You probably noticed that the Turning Points shared here frequently don’t trigger. Sometimes a few days can go by without a trade. 

You may be thinking, “This is not enough action for me.” 

On the contrary, this strategy provides an abundance of opportunities every day. The chart above shows all the trades that teed up yesterday BEFORE lunch. And this is from only ONE of five strategies. We scan several dozen setups for the best every day. 

Now you may be thinking “That is too much action for me.” 

It’s all about mindset. If you approach abundance with greed and obligation to trade as much as possible you’ll suffer. You’ll over-trade and under-analyze. Your results will be marginal at best. 

If you approach abundance with a selective mindset ...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: Neither trade triggered. 

Quick Tip: Style Matters

I hosted a group coaching session last night on the topic of trading style. This decision is critically important to your success. You must find a style of trading that resonates with your personality. 

Jack Schwager, author of the “Wizards” series of books (interviews with top traders) observed that almost every trader approached the markets differently, yet they all made money.

If there are so many ways to trade profitably why is it so hard to achieve? Jack’s answer was they all found a style that suited them. 

In our trading room we run 5 different strategies that require different skills and time commitments. A new trader joining our team can explore the various styles of trading and select the one or two that “fit” their personality best. 

For example, two strategies require very...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy level @ 3940.75 stopped out. 

Quick Tip: Risky Business  

There probably isn’t a book, course, or video on trading that doesn’t stress risk management as the key to ultimately succeeding. 

Determine your risk number. Make sure you consider losing streaks and drawdowns. Size your position. Use a stop loss order. Done. 

Not quite. That was simply one part of your “trade risk.” You still need to know if, and when, you’re going to move the stop. How are you capturing the profit that remains “at risk?”

There are many forms of risk in trading that require preset rules in your plan. 

1. Trade Risk: Managing open trades. 

2. Psychological: Managing your emotions. 

3. Market: Preparation for outlier events.

4. Liquidity: Ensuring your chosen asset has enough buyers/sellers. 

5. ...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested short level @ 3990.50 was a breakout entry (not reversal) and ran for 16.75 points to the next volume level. That level was unpublished here and returned the favor for another 16.75 points. The suggested buy level @ 3933.50 only offered a 9.75-point bounce. 

Quick Tip: Play to Win 

All your results start with your orientation toward life. In Larry Wilson’s book, Play to Win: Choosing Growth Over Fear in Work and Life, he reveals the two orientations that you must choose between.

1. Play to win.

2. Playing not to lose

What’s the difference? 

People who have a positive attitude packed with a view of abundant opportunities that are willing to overcome challenges, grow and risk for gain are “Playing to Win.” 

Conversely, people who need to remain in their...

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The Daily Market Forecast

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The Daily Market Forecast

Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested buy @ 4038.00 was only good for a quick 6-point bounce. 

Quick Tip: Target Optimization

Yesterday you learned about the ratio between the Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) and Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE). The higher the ratio the better. 

Yesterday’s suggested buy only offered 6.25 points before reversing. If your target was greater than that, you stopped out. Here’s how knowing the historical MFE for every individual trade your strategy set up, not just the average MFE (for the ratio mentioned above), will be very helpful. 

Let’s say you have collected MFE on hundreds of trades. You didn’t need to take the trades, they just needed to fit your strategy rule set. Sort the data by MFE, high to low. Now you can ask, “What percentage of the time does price go how far?”

Now you can assign targets to scale out of your winning...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The suggested short @ 4049.75 was a 32.75-point runner. What you didn’t know was the opposing volume level (unpublished here) was a buy @ 4106.00. That runner, selling the morning top, came 2.75-points from 4106.00 and ran all the way back to 4049.75. Enough of the time, volume levels work just fine! Read the P.S. and get involved!

Quick Tip: Calibrating Edge

Every trader and any worthwhile educator of traders talks about edge. It’s what the casinos have. You can win any given day, but they will win every day. Edge is advantage. 

Edge is also mysterious to many traders. How do you find edge? Research is the best start but what are you looking for to validate it? 

Here’s a simple formula to calibrate and validate the edge in any trading strategy. 

1. Look at as many trade setups as you can find going back in time as far as you have...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: No suggestions were given for Volume Profile with the expected (and arrived) volatility. Trend was the BIG winner from our multi-strat trading room. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from -7 to -79 with all major world markets bearish with spiking volatility. Expecting a wide range day with more downside trading than upside: This index at -79 historically moves -40 points average from open to low, +31 points average from open to high.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Powell confirmed the latest up move as a bear market rally. Worldwide we’re heading down.  

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (in fast moving markets consider a wider stop and less size): 

Sell 4049.75 stop 4055.25.

Buy 3982.00 stop 3976.25. 

Trade Fearlessly,

Mike Siewruk 

P.S. Multiple strategies, software tools, teammates, and coaching. Learn why you should join...

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The Daily Market Forecast

Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points Results: The short @ 4196.75 failed but triggered 3 minutes to the close (filtered out based on time). 

Quick Tip: In Your Head

Yesterday I shared a quote from Curtis Faith in his book “Way of the Turtle,” because Curtis was the most successful of the legendary Turtle Traders, and I re-read his book recently. 

BTW, Curtis was chosen to learn to trade the “Turtle” way at 19 years old and excelled to #1 amongst his peers. I don’t know Curtis personally but based on his success, he KNOWS trading. 

In the bibliography of the book Curtis gives his recommended reading list. 25 books in total. Can you guess what aspect of trading was titled in 12 of those books?

Psychology. 

‘Nuff said. 

If you want the tools and techniques to change your behavior and catapult your trading results, click here for details. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100)...

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