Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Shorting 4066.00 offered an 8-point move. The breakout afterward offered 12.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (trades are cancelled during Powell’s testimony if volatility is high): 

Buy 4019.25 stop 4015.25. Short 4103.75 stop 4109.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) REMAINS at +14 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically price closed above the open 56% of the time with 2X the gain versus loss. 

Catalysts: Powell Testifies @ 10:00. Expect extra volatility after the prepared statement during the Q&A. 

Quick Tip: Breakouts

You’ve no doubt heard “old resistance becomes new support” as price passes through a chart pattern. The same applies to the volume-at-price levels shared in this blog. 

The chart above shows the entries for reversal and breakout clearly. What isn’t clear at all...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Shorting 4050.25 offered a 7-point move before closing the session around breakeven.  

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4019.25 stop 4015.25. Short 4066.00 stop 4070.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DROPS from +64 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically price closed above the open 56% of the time with 2X the gain versus loss. 

Catalysts: Maybe Factory Orders @ 10:00. Waiting on Powell’s testimony on Tuesday/Wednesday. Holding cash at the current T-Bill rate of 4.74% is growing very popular. 

Quick Tip: Know Your Opponent 

Trading is a battle. Bulls vs. Bears. Considering what other traders are doing and why when you’re entering or exiting a trade is good thinking. 

You’re following a rule-based trade plan so you...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Shorting 3981.50 only offered a 4.75-point scalp. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3948.75 stop 3943.00. Short 4050.25 stop 4053.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -14 back to +64 with all major world markets bullish. Historically price closed below the open 62% of the time with 3X the loss versus gain (contrarian alert). 

Catalysts: PMI Final @ 9:45. ISM Services Index @ 10:00. Fed’s Monetary Policy Report (tentative).  

Quick Tip: Are You Gambling? 

The uninformed frequently mistake trading for gambling. But even the trader who knows there are similarities and differences doesn’t always focus on the keys to taking the “gamble” completely out of their trade plan. Consider these and audit your personal trade plan for compliance. 

1. ...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Once again, the suggested buy @ 3925.75 triggered in the Globex session and is currently open with 22 points favorable excursion. Read yesterday’s blog for exit ideas on entries that trigger when you’re sleeping. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3892.50 stop 3887.50. Short 3981.50 stop 3987.00.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +64 to -14 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically price closed above the open 63% of the time. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims & Productivity/Costs @ 8:30. 

Quick Tip: Anchored VWAP

If you’re looking for a new trading approach using a technical indicator I highly recommend Brian Shannon’s new book “Anchored VWAP.” 

VWAP means Volume Weighted Average Price. This common version of the indicator is...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3958.75 triggered in the Globex session and is currently open with 32 points favorable excursion. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3925.75 stop 3921.25. Short 4003.00 stop 4007.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) LEAPS from +14 to +64 with all major world markets bullish. Historically price closed below the open 62% of the time with 3X the loss versus gain (contrarian alert). 

Catalysts: Fed’s Kashkari @ 9:00. PMI MFG Final @ 9:45. ISM MFG Index @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30.  

Quick Tip: Targets @ Night

The volume-at-price levels that are suggested in this blog stay on the chart until breached. Yesterday’s buy level was the low of the Globex session. Great entry. But where to exit while you’re sleeping? 

1. Day session close...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested short @ 4016.00 stopped out.

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3958.75 stop 3953.25. Short 4050.25 stop 4053.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) EASES from +21 to +14 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically price has closed higher than the open 56% of the time with 2 times the gain as the losers. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Consumer Confidence @ 10:00.   

Quick Tip: Shades of Gray  

Here’s a quote I love from superstar attorney Gerry Spence: “I would rather have a mind that is opened by wonder than one closed by belief.” 

At first this quote seems to simply say “Have an open mind.” But it goes deeper than that. It’s more than merely having a positive attitude or not being fixed...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3951.50 was the bottom of the session and ran for 32.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3958.75 stop 3953.25. Short 4016 stop 4021.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) RISES from -29 to +21 with Asia down and the western world up. Historically the close is higher than the open 61% of the time. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: Are You Realistic?

Self-discipline in trading is critical. You’re probably aware of several key elements to being self-disciplined: 

1. Have a rule-based Trading Plan.

2. Be consistent following your plan.  

3. Manage your emotions.

4. Practice proper risk management. 

There is a 5th element that many traders fail to...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3977.50 was the bottom of the session and ran for 51 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3951.50 stop 3946.50. Short 4016 stop 4021.75. Both trades are cancelled during the PCE econ release. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) SLIPS from -7 to -29 in a mostly Bearish world with rising volatility. 

Catalysts: PCE Price Index @ 8:30. New Home Sales & UM Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Revised @ 10:00. Fed’s Jefferson @ 10:15.   

Quick Tip: Flexibility

Yesterday’s S&P action was a test in how flexible you are. The turning points suggested in this blog come from our proprietary version of volume profile. 

After a brief rally a perfect “10:00 AM Reversal” dumped the index 60 points (1.49%) right into the...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3990.00 ran for 32.75 points and had a “natural” exit just before the FOMC Minutes were released. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3977.50 stop 3974.00. Short 4050.25 stop 4053.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -43 to -7 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. NVDA’s bullish forecast tips risk on.  

Quick Tip: "Close Enough"

Looking at yesterday’s price action prior to the entry you’ll notice that price moved sharply down and “based” for a while in a tight trading range. This occurred just above our high-volume price level. 

Sideways movement after a drop is called Accumulation in Market...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 4029.75 offered 10.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3990.00 stop 3985.75. Short 4050.25 stop 4053.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) EASES up from -57 to -43 with all major world markets Bearish except the S&P Globex seeing an early morning rally to positive. 

Catalysts: FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. G20 Meetings begin (ending Saturday). 

Quick Tip: Sizing

New traders are usually focused on finding great entry signals. Clearly, we don’t want to enter randomly but the more important decision you have is WHEN and HOW to exit. That’s where the money is made or lost.   

The worst situation to be in trading futures or options is having one contract. Fortunately, with so many micro contracts in futures to select...