Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested short @ 3857.50 reversed for only 5.50 points. The prior buy and subsequent buy were runners for 27 and 23 points (see chart). 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3830.50 stop 3826.25. Short 3902.25 stop 3908.00   

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DIPS from -14 to -21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically the close was higher than the open 56% of the time. 

Catalysts: Maybe Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Little optimism to be found ending 2022 with sizable losses in the major indexes.  Going forward the same hangovers exist; Ukraine war, recession possibilities, higher interest rates, and inflation. 

Quick Tip: Optimism & Pessimism

Can they co-exist? Should they? Yes, but on different levels. 

Starting the New Year, it’s common for you to...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested short @ 3875.50 missed entry by 2 ticks and was the high of the session. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3811.00 stop 3806.75. Short 3857.50 stop 3860.50.   

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DROPS from +21 to -14 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. Historically the close was higher than the open 74% of the time. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 11:00. Renewed concerns about Covid. 

Quick Tip: Test More

Your strategy is working just fine. You finally found your trading “rhythm.” Your account is growing and you’re ready to start taking a paycheck (which you should, make those gains tangible). But...

Boredom is setting in. It’s all too mechanical. The challenges you cherished and were passionate about...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3863.50 stopped out. The breakout short from that level ran for 18.75-points. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

No good buy level nearby. Short 3875.00 stop 3880.25.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DUMPS from +70 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment. Historically the close was higher than the open 55% of the time. 

Catalysts: Maybe Pending Home Sales @ 10:00 but not likely. Mood is cautious. 

Quick Tip: Know Your Next Move

The volume levels suggested in this blog are two of the many on our charts. They are chosen for you, and I think they are the “best” for that day. But I’m not always right. In fact, I’m probably wrong half the time. Kind of like trades. 

Yesterday’s buy level failed. The breakout short was a modest winner. Cover your loss and then...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3835.75 ran for 35.75 points that you shouldn’t have gotten. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3863.50 stop 3857.75. Short 3924.50 stop 3930.25.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) SOARS from -7 to +70 in a bullish world. Historically the close was higher than the open 63% of the time. 

Catalysts: International Trade @ 8:30. Home Price Index @ 9:00.  China opens. 

Quick Tip: Filtering Winners

Friday’s buy level sure looks good in retrospect (see chart). Although the suggested stop was touched, the market was moving wicked-fast so taking this trade would have required a bit more room. 

Hopefully, you didn’t take it. Why not? Because this occurred during the Personal Income economic report which created extreme volatility,...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The suggested buy @ 3853.25 only bounced for 4.50-points before stopping out.  

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3835.75 stop 3830.25. Short 3924.50 stop 3930.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) EASES from +21 to -7 in a world of mixed sentiment. Historically the close was higher than the open 74% of the time. 

Catalysts: Durable Goods & Personal Income/Outlays @ 8:30. New Home Sales & Consumer Sentiment (including Inflation Expectations) @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Feedback 

How is my trading going? That’s a question you should be asking yourself on a regular basis. Think hard, be critical, answer honestly. And don’t worry about talking to yourself, we all learned that’s OK during Covid lockdown. 

What you’ll find when you question your results critically...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: There was a typo in the levels yesterday. The short was a buy level. It did not trigger and remains active. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3853.25 stop 3848.25. Short 3924.50 stop 3930.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) EASES from +36 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment. Historically the close was higher than the open 56% of the time. 

Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30.  

Quick Tip: After You Win

If you’re a regular reader of this blog you know that documentation and review of all your trade setups (taken or not) is essential to improving your results. 

It’s easy to skimp on this work by focusing on the losers. Your instinct is to understand why you lost. Was it something you did wrong? Could you discover a change to your trade plan that is...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3811.75 stop 3806.00. Short 3853.25 stop 3848.25.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from -57 to +36 with most major world markets Bullish. Historically the close was higher than the open 55% of the time. 

Catalysts: Consumer Confidence & Existing Home Sales @ 10:00. EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Choices

The first serious sports car I bought was gold. It was the only one of that model the dealer had at the time. I didn’t love the color, but I really wanted the car. 

Most of the time we have choices and that’s a good thing. Traders have plenty of choices. Maybe too many. Which asset to trade, how many shares/contracts, entries, exits, etc. That’s why you should...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The buy @ 3865.50 ran for 16.25 points, but the breakout did better. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3811.75 stop 3806.00. Short 3883.25 stop 3888.25.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) DROPS from -7 to -57 with most major world markets leaning Bearish. Historically the close is lower than the open 56% of the time. 

Catalysts: Housing Starts @ 8:30. BOJ gets Hawkish, USD weaker.  

Quick Tip: Flexibility

Yesterday’s buy was good for a modest winning run before reversing and eliminating the origin, a prior high-volume level. 

Understanding the origin of these high-volume levels is important. Think of them as battles. High volume simply means plenty of buying interest AND plenty of selling interest. Classic Bull/Bear fight. 

The entry was won by...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The buy @ 3976.75 was only good for a 7.75-point bounce. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3865.50 stop 3861.00. Short 3924.50 stop 3930.25

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -50 to -7. Historically, price has closed higher than the open 74% of the time. 

Catalysts: Maybe the Housing Market Index @ 10:00. Nothing else obvious. 

Quick Tip: Probabilities Rule

One certainty we have in trading is that price will move. Which way and by how far are what we must figure out. Guessing doesn’t work. Using probabilities based on a large body of evidence does (at least enough of the time). 

You get your probabilities by capturing and analyzing your trade data (lots of it). Most traders will initiate a strategy by back-testing and documenting what happened. The more...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: The buy @ 3929.00 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 3876.75 stop 3871.75. Short 3924.50 stop 3930.25

Globex View: Bouncing from a strong drop. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) eases from -64 to -50 with the Western world very bearish, Asia neutral. Historically, price will close lower than the open 56% of the time.  

Catalysts: PMI Flash @ 9:45. Global recession risk rises. Triple Witching volatility.

Quick Tip: Third Friday

How does your strategy perform on the third Friday of every month? Options expiration day tends to increase volatility, especially later in the day. 

Today is a special expiration day, Triple Witching, where stock index futures, equity index options, and stock options all expire. This occurs quarterly and since this is the final quarter of the year there...