Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4145.50 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4131.25 stop 4127.50. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) eases from +50 to +43 with China/HK Bullish and the west mixed.   

Catalysts: Empire State MFG Index @ 8:30. Housing Market Index @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: Consistency

Every trader wants to have a consistent winning experience. Your consistency is only as good as the edge in your trading plan and your ability to follow the rules with precision. Easier said than done. 

Curtis Faith, the most successful of the Turtle Traders, stresses that consistency comes from having a systematic approach and a thorough understanding of the limitations of that approach. 

What’s he saying? Your...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4143.50 offered a modest 4.75 points of reversal as price chopped sideways in the area for almost 2 hours.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4145.50 stop 4140.75. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.  

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +29 to +50 with all major world markets bullish (S&P futures flat).
 

Catalysts: Retail Sales & Import/Export Prices @ 8:30. FOMC Waller speaks @ 8:45. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Business Inventories & Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00.

Quick Tip: Bad Decision? 

Life (and trading) is all about making more good decisions than bad decisions. We can’t possibly make all good decisions. Rather than be down when your decision was bad, learn something.  

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, was quoted in Bloomberg regarding...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4130.75 caught the bottom of the session and ran for 18 points to the next level @ 4148.75 (see Quick Tip for details). 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4109.75 stop 4104.00. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +43 to +29 in a world of mixed Bullish-leaning sentiment. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Minutes @ 14:00. 

Quick Tip: How to Trade This

The turning points offered in this newsletter are from high volume price levels. The expectation, and history, of these levels is for price to reverse when entering and breakout when exiting. Nothing is certain but they’re effective enough of the time to trade. 

Looking at the chart you’ll notice the first trade was filled in the Globex...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The buy @ 4111.50 stopped out in the pre-market yesterday. The short at 4148.75 triggered in last night’s Globex and is currently the high of the session with 16+ points so far. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4130.75 stop 4126.25. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +7 to +43 with most major world markets mildly Bullish. 

Catalysts: IMF World Economic Outlook @ 9:00. Global Financial Stability Report @ 10:30. Yellen speaks @ 11:30. Next big release is CPI tomorrow. 

Quick Tip: Be Flexible

If you’re in the X-gen or Boomer generations this is beyond a trading lesson. It’s a life lesson. 

I read that over 10,00 Boomers are retiring every day. I’m sure there is a need for supplemental income for many, maybe most of...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Price traded in a relatively narrow range, neither suggested trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4111.50 stop 4106.50. Short 4148.75 stop 4154.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) is worthless today as Hong Kong and Europe are stilled closed for the Easter holiday. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Strong U.S. payrolls data on Friday during a closed market. Next big release is CPI on Wednesday.  

Quick Tip: Why Stats Matter

Here’s an important quote from Nassim Taleb, celebrity author of Black Swan and Antifragile, “Whether it’s Covid, vaccines, Bitcoin, or stuff about elections, we’re swayed by the anecdote. So our world is becoming more complex, requires more statistical sophistication while...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested buy at 4101.50 was the bottom of the day and ran to the close of the session for 17.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4082.25 stop 4077.50. Short 4148.75 stop 4154.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -40 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment and falling volatility. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Fed’s Bullard speaks @ 10:00. The big news is tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report but the markets are closed for Good Friday. 

Quick Tip: Adjusting Targets

Your trading plan should have a basic set of entry and exit rules. Think of them as useful for “typical” market conditions. You can define typical by data mining your Excel spreadsheet of results and finding the average moves for and against (called Maximum Favorable Excursion or...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested buy at 4136.50 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4101.50 stop 4097.25. Short 4148.75 stop 4154.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +36 to -40 with most major world markets modestly Bearish on falling volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Report @ 8:15. International Trade @ 8:30. ISM Services @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: No Worries

Yesterday was my birthday so I was feeling a bit happier and more optimistic than usual. My primary trading strategy is working well, but the market didn’t reward me with a birthday gift. I started with 3 full losing trades (stopped out with no targets filled). After that I had two breakeven trades. Down day. 

But I wasn’t down. My expectations are based on ...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested short @ 4146.00 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4136.50 stop 4132.50. Short 4206.50 stop 4212.25.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from +29 to +36 in a mildly Bullish world of falling volatility. 

Catalysts: ADP Employment Report @ 8:15. International Trade @ 8:30. ISM Services @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: On Needs

To succeed in trading (actually, anything in life) you must be motivated. There will always be setbacks, frustrations, losses, failures, and rejections. If you’re not motivated you won’t persist. You’ll quit and carry that psychological “loss” with you. Collect enough of those and you’ll be miserable. 

The answer is to get and stay motivated. But how? Find...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The suggested short @ 4103.75 was only good for 6.25 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4100.50 stop 4097.25. Short 4146.00 stop 4151.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +50 to +29 in a mildly bullish world of decreasing volatility. 

Catalysts: ISM MFG @ 10:00. Oil jumps on OPEC production cut. 

Quick Tip: Visualization

In sports psychology one highly successful technique is positive visualization. In essence, the athlete will vividly imagine and visualize in the mind’s eye the result of what they are about to do. 

Golf is an easy example for clarification. Top golfers, coached by sports psychologists are taught an interesting visualization technique. Famous golf coach and psychology professor Dr. Richard Coop instructs this way: 

Before you...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered. Both remain on the chart for today. 

Today’s Best S&P Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4059.25 stop 4055.00. Short 4103.75 stop 4109.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) remains +50 with all major world markets mildly Bullish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: PCE (Fed’s primary inflation measure) @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. UM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Struggling? 

Markets are either trending or not, volatile, or not. It should be no wonder that traders may have similar cycles of performance, winning streaks, losing streaks, consistency and inconsistency. 

If you’re struggling, here’s a simple but highly effective checklist to work through. 

1. Take a break, clear your mind, and come back to trading with a...