Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4305.75 caught the high of the session twice and ran for 12 and 14.75 points. Feel better about your win by donating a slice to my preferred charity, the Alzheimer’s Association. Click here.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4266.00 stop 4260.75. Short 4305.75 stop 4311.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) dips from -21 to -29 in a world of Bearish leaning mixed sentiment with low volatility. 

Catalysts: International Trade @ 8:30 Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Filtering

The successful turning point from yesterday did not come from a chart pattern. This level was derived from the highest volume on the price axis the prior day. They’re “hidden” on a time-based chart. The theory is that the price was fair, many orders were...

Results of Moday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4305.75 caught the high of the session and ran for 32.75 points before closing the day +25.75.  Feel better about this gift by donating a slice to my preferred charity, the Alzheimer’s Association. Click here.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4266.00 stop 4260.75. Short 4289.75 stop 4294.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +29 to -21 in a world of Bearish leaning mixed sentiment with low volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing obvious. 

Quick Tip: Adjust Expectations

It’s important to be in harmony with current market conditions. While being disciplined to follow your rules, ask yourself “Do I have different rules for volatile and quiet markets?” 

Today’s Globex range is currently 11.25 points trading trendless inside...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4271.75 ran for 22.50 points. Feel better about the win by donating a slice to my preferred charity, the Alzheimer’s Association. Click here.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4266.00 stop 4260.75. Short 4305.75 stop 4311.25. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +86 to +29 in a world of Bullish leaning mixed sentiment. 

Catalysts: ISM Services PMI & Factory Orders @ 10:00. Oil up on production cut. 

Quick Tip: Entry or Exit?

Friday’s suggested short was at a high-volume price level that was formed in August 2022. Don’t be reluctant to go back as far as you can to find a chart feature to trade from. 

Price was strongly marching higher, hopefully you had a long signal and enjoyed that run. Our team was long from our intraday trend...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4214.00 stopped out. Buying the breakout ran for 22 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4228.50 stop 4223.25. Short 4271.75 stop 4277.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) JUMPS from +43 to +86 with all major world markets very Bullish.

Catalysts: Employment Report @ 8:30.  

Quick Tip: Breakouts

The suggested turning points in this newsletter are former high volume price levels. These represent fair value, otherwise price would trend. They’re used for both reversal and breakout trades. 

Looking at the chart above you’ll notice the breakout was documented, but not suggested in yesterday’s edition. Going forward you should pay attention to the breakouts when the reversals fail. 

In strong trending markets the...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4210.00 ran for 12.75 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4217.75 on a retracement after price breaks out above. Short 4214.00 stop 4218.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +21 to -57 with all major world markets bearish on rising volatility. 

Catalysts: Chicago PMI @ 9:45. JOLTS @ 10:00. Scattered Fed-Speak. Beige Book @ 14:00. Debt Ceiling vote. 

Quick Tip: Attention

In his excellent book Atomic Habits author James Clear named chapter 20 The Downside of Creating Good Habits. Darn good title! 

Here’s the gist of it: once we practice something enough to become skilled and automatic we become less aware of improving it. We stop looking for the mistakes. After all, once it’s a habit you’re not thinking...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4192.50 stopped out. Buying the breakout worked for 20 points at the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4210.00 stop 4204.50. Short 4271.75 stop 4277.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +42 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Home Price Index @ 9:00. Consumer Confidence @ 10:00. Debt Ceiling progress. Tech rally continues. 

Quick Tip: Equity Curves

Are you plotting your strategy’s equity curve? If not, get started. It’s a modest amount of record keeping, and it will give you confidence and warn you to drawdowns and restarts. 

It’s important that the equity curve represents all trades your strategy teed up, not just the ones you took. Knowing the difference between your results (behavior) and...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4118.25 offered a 16.50-point runner. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4096.75 stop 4092.00. Short 4192.25 stop 4196.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -86 to -21 in a world of mixed sentiment and waning volatility. 

Catalysts: GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00. Risk on for Tech 

Quick Tip: Fast Moves

Everyone loves a fast move in your chosen direction. Study enough price charts and you’ll see a recurring pattern: fast move up, base, fast move down. It happens in reverse as well. 

So, after enjoying the quick gain and determining your exit, start planning for the reversal. Sometimes the base is non-existent, like the pivot candle on the chart above. Other times it’s a trading range. Mark up...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4182.00 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4118.25 stop 4115.25. Short 4192.25 stop 4196.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from -50 to -86 with all major world markets very Bearish. Contrarian Alert: Historically, price closed higher from the open 57% of the time.

Catalysts: Yellen speaks @ 10:05. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 14:00. Debt ceiling talks stall. Risk off worldwide. 

Quick Tip: Short Targets

The world is bearish today due to the impasse on debt ceiling talks. You’ll probably be leaning to the short side today. 

Successful traders look for asymmetrical trades. These are trades where the risk is small compared to the potential gains. 

One application for asymmetry is frequently overlooked....

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered and remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4182.00 stop 4178.75. Short 4229.75 stop 4233.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +14 to -50 with most major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: Fed-speak @ 9:00. PMI Flash @ 9:45. New Home Sales @ 10:00. No deal from the White House but both agreed that a default is not going to happen. 

Quick Tip: Be proactive, not reactive.

With 40+ million copies sold and a release date in 1989 you’re likely to have read Stephen Covey’s “The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People.” If not, do it now. It is excellent and timeless advice. 

Habit #1 says be proactive, not reactive. With so many different styles of trading, you know there are strategies that you...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4182.00 stop 4178.75. Short 4229.75 stop 4233.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) remains at +14 with Asia Bullish and the west modestly Bearish.

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Updates on the debt ceiling negotiations can come at any time and cause high volatility. Stay focused. 

Quick Tip: Leading Indicator

Everyone wants to find the best “Leading Indicator.” One that alerts you before price action changes. While nothing works all the time in this business there are methods to gain an edge.

If you’re a swing or position trader of stocks or options, I’ve found hard evidence that there is a Leading Indicator that has a significant edge. I’ll be...