Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered. Both remain on the chart for today.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4434.25 stop 4489.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS rises from -79 to -71 with all major world markets firmly Bearish. 

Catalysts: PMI MFG/Services Flash @ 9:45. 

Quick Tip: Your Unsatisfied Need.

To succeed in trading (actually, anything in life) you must be highly motivated. 

Why? Because there will always be setbacks, frustrations, losses, and failures. If you’re not motivated you won’t persist. You’ll quit and carry that psychological “loss” with you. Collect enough of those and you’ll be miserable. 

The answer is to get and stay motivated. 

But how? Find your unsatisfied need. You don’t require motivation for anything that you’re already satisfied with. You don’t even think about it. If you have en...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered during a narrow range session. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4434.25 stop 4489.50. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from -14 to -79 with all major world markets firmly Bearish. 

Catalysts: Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Existing Home Sales & Fed Chair Powell testifies to House Financial Services Committee @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Disqualifying 

Traditional work (your job) makes becoming a winning trader difficult. Not because of the time devotion, but because it instills a belief that is NOT helpful in trading. 

What is it? Doing something. Can you imagine if you were caught doing nothing and told the boss “Now is not a good time to be working on this.” Or “Thursdays are difficult days to get anything done, so I’m going to loaf.” 

In trading NOT enteri...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested trade triggered and they remain on the chart. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4471.00 stop 4476.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from -43 to -14 with China/Hong Kong very Bearish and the others mixed on very low volatility. 

Catalysts: Fed Chair Powell testifies to House Financial Services Committee @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Be Calm

Even if you don’t golf you’ve probably heard that it’s a mental game. Most athletics are. Trading is too. Dr. Richard Coop, author of the book “Mind Over Golf” advises players to have their own personal “pre-shot routine.” 

Let’s use his advice but change the details to improve our trading. 

1. If you’re approaching a trade entry with a negative feeling, pause and use some physical ritual to regain calm control and reset your concentration. The ritual may be standing...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4429.75 happened in the Globex last night, good for an 8-point bounce. The breakout short is still open.  

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4471.00 stop 4476.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) plunges from +50 to -43 with all major world markets flat to leaning Bearish.    

Catalysts: Housing Starts @ 8:30.  

Quick Tip: No FOMO

Seasoned traders spend time on the review process. They compare their results (behavior) to their plan. This is an excellent way to improve incrementally and get more disciplined. 

There is a “downside” you’ll need to handle, though. Since you can’t take or get filled on every trade setup you’ll find in your review process that you miss plenty of great trades. It gets worse when you happen to be in a drawdown and you’re seeing the losers on your statement and the winners absent. 

How do y...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4445.00 stopped out but the breakout ran for 27 points to the next volume level, then reversed for +8.50 points at the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4439.75 stop 4434.25. Short 4504.50 stop 4509.25

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from +7 to +50 with all major world markets Bullish.   

Catalysts: Fed’s Barkin @ 9:00. UM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00. 

Quick Tip: Breakouts

Yesterday’s action reminds me to make sure you’re clear on how to trade the levels presented in this newsletter. 

They can be reversals and breakouts. Obviously, the breakout occurs after a reversal attempt. The reversal might stop out like yesterday, but it could also be a winner that turned later to penetrate the level and signal a breakout. In strong trends you’re better off ignoring the reversals and focusing on breakouts to join the trend. 

While ther...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4386.75 made the low of the session and ran for 42+ points. Unfortunately, we filtered it out due to FOMC volatility. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4357.50 stop 4353.25. Short 4445.00 stop 4450.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) falls from +36 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment.  

Catalysts: Retail Sales, Empire State MFG Index, Philly Fed MFG, Import Prices & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Industrial Production @ 9:15. Interest rate increases are not over and rate cuts are far off. 

Quick Tip: Compartmentalize

Here’s the setup: you have a 401-K (long only) and you trade short term for income (long and short). Every morning you go through your routine which includes assessing two different time horizons:

The big picture. Trends on monthly and weekly charts. You want these up for your 401-K.

Today. Will it be a narrow or wide day? Up or dow...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither suggested level triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (filtered out during FOMC volatility): 

Buy 4386.75 stop 4382.00. Short 4480.00 stop 4485.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) eases from +43 to +36 with the west carrying the Bullish flag. 

Catalysts: PPI @ 8:30. Crude oil inventories @ 10:30. FOMC announcement @ 14:00, press conference @ 14:30. 

Quick Tip: Quick Tip: FOMC Volatility

FOMC rate announcements and press conferences are the most important repeating catalysts. The volatility can be extreme which means you need to plan for how and when you’re going to trade the session, if at all. 

The trading hours prior to the announcement show the expected collapse of volatility (see histogram above). 

It would seem the volatility would be highest at the time of the rate announcement. But as you can see in the histogram, it’s during the press conference that the volatility peaks. These two 30-min...

 Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: The short @ 4388.00 held as the high of the session but only retraced for a few points of gain by the close. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4357.50 stop 4353.25. Short 4445.00 stop 4450.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) lifts from +36 to +43 with all major world markets neutral or mildly bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Oracle beats giving Tech a modest boost. 

Quick Tip: Quick Tip: Reframing

Yesterday’s short was a solid winner. It just didn’t pay out much. This is how you can re-frame your thinking when a trade fails or in this case, offers a small win. 

Look at the positives. You didn’t lose. You followed your rules with discipline. Your rules were pretty darn good finding a reversal level that hasn’t been touched since April 22, 2022. That’s a lot to be positive about!

Of course, the better use of this reversal level w...

 Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4307.50 stop 4303.25. Short 4388.00 stop 4392.75. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) lifts from +7 to +36 with all major world markets neutral or mildly bullish on low volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Waiting on CPI & FOMC. 

Quick Tip: Quick Tip: Trader or CEO?

You should manage your trading like you would a business. Even if you’re employed, think of it as a side business. You’re unlikely to have employees in your trading business and that means you need to wear different “hats” to be successful. At times you will need to act the roles of CEO, CFO, and Trader. 

The CEO creates the vision then ensures it becomes a reality. You are constantly learning and considering strategy changes. You are the author of the trading plan, documentation, and review processes (not the...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade triggered. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4266.00 stop 4260.75. Short 4334.75 stop 4340.00. 

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) dips from +21 to +7 in a world of mixed sentiment with low volatility. 

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. 

Quick Tip: Your Hot List

If you’re a directional stock or options trader you know the importance of stock selection. All the trading skills in the world don’t matter if you’re trading assets that don’t move. 

You can look at the historical performance of stocks to assume their past will repeat in the future. 

But there is a better way… a true Leading Indicator. Insider buying. Key executives have only one reason to write 7 and 8-figure checks to own more of their company. They think it’s going up and research has proven this to be true: 

From "The Effect of CEO Insider Trading on Firm Perf...