Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4482.75 filled in the Globex last night and stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4456.75 stop 4452.50. Short 4504.50 stop 4509.25.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from +29 to +36 in a world of mostly Bullish sentiment and rising volatility.  

Catalysts: CPI @ 8:30. Scattered Fed speakers. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 10-year bond auction @ 13:01. Fed’s Beige Book @ 14:00.  

Quick Tip: Reversals Approach

The character of price moving up is different than price moving down. You’re likely familiar with the “stairs up, elevator down” analogy. Because fear is more powerful than greed price does tend to fall faster than it rises. 

This observation can assist you when it’s time to place a reversal trade. 

With the CPI...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4443.50 picked the top of the session and ran for 19.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4412.50 stop 4407.50. Short 4482.75 stop 4486.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from +21 to +29 in a world of mild Bullish sentiment and low volatility.  

Catalysts: Nothing on the economic calendar. Fed speakers yesterday confirming more rate hikes. 

Quick Tip: Entries are Exits.

Exiting your trades is when all the money is made or lost. The loss is a simple decision, where your stop order rests. The profit decision is trickier. 

Imagine you’re long and price is behaving well, moving up firmly. The only certainty you have is that it won’t go up forever. There will be stalls, corrections, bases, and reversals within the move. 

When do you take...

Results of Friday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4412.50 filled in the Globex session last night.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4387.00 stop 4383.25. Short 4443.50 stop 4449.25.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -29 to +21 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility.  

Catalysts: Nothing impactful on the economic calendar. Scattered Fed-speak. 

Quick Tip: Night Moves

Friday’s buy @ 4412.50 triggered at 2:04 AM ET last night while most of us were sleeping. The trade is still open with 15 points MFE (Maximum Favorable Excursion). 

Staging a trade before bed is simple. Enter your limit order to buy/short at the entry price. Attach a trailing stop equal to the initial risk, maybe a few ticks more. Enter any profit targets if you’re scaling out. 

If you weren’t sleeping you’d...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4431.25 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4412.50 stop 4407.50. Short 4482.75 stop 4486.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from -79 to -29 in a world leaning Bearish on lower volatility. 

Catalysts: Employment Report @ 8:30.  

Quick Tip: Greek Philosophy 

Not being knowledgeable in Greek philosophy I had no idea who Epictetus was. But a famous quote of his that I read is applicable to trading so I’m sharing: 

“Men are disturbed, not by the things that happen, but by their opinion of the things that happen.” 

What’s your opinion about losing? 

Losing happens in trading, sometimes in streaks. Reacting to it with destructive opinions (beliefs) won’t help. 

In your review process look at...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered on another narrow range day. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4431.25 stop 4427.25. Short 4482.75 stop 4486.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) falls from -57 to -79 with all major world markets extended their Bearish tone from yesterday. 

Catalysts: OPEC meetings (lowering production). ADP Employment Report @ 8:15. Jobless Claims @ 8:30. ISM Services PMI @ 10:00. Crude Oil Inventories @ 11:00. 

Quick Tip: Expectations 

“What are you struggling with?” was the question I asked a group of traders. One woman said she had expectation challenges. She felt she needed to acknowledge that every trade cannot be a home run, or “10 to 1” as she phrased it. 

I respect her self-awareness. Expectations is not a commonly voiced...

Results of Monday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered on a narrow range short-session day. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4431.25 stop 4427.25. Short 4504.50 stop 4509.25.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) PLUMMETS from +50 to -57 with all major world markets Bearish. 

Catalysts: OPEC meetings (lowering production). FOMC Minutes @ 14:00.  

Quick Tip: Time Stops

Having a dollar stop loss on trades is common and advisable. What about a time stop? 

Entering a trade ties up your capital. The ideal result would be an instantaneous win but that rarely happens. The worst result, other than a loss, would be a trade that doesn’t move much at all and is open for a long period of time. You could be using that capital for better opportunities. 

Determining your time stop...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4471.00 stopped out. Buying the breakout ran for 21.50 points. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4431.25 stop 4427.25. Short 4521.25 stop 4524.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from +43 to +50 with Asia very Bullish and the west neutral. 

Catalysts: Final S&P Global MFG PMI @ 9:45. ISM MFG PMI & Construction Spending @ 10:00.  Short session today. 

Quick Tip: Decide Quickly?

Predictions and forecasts. Are they helpful in your trading or not? 

You could argue that the only thing that matters is price action in present time. Fair argument. 

But are you prepared for what price action is suggesting? Are you using the correct strategy for the current market conditions? Will today be a trending or range-bound day? 

It’s helpful to...

Results of Thursday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Buying 4412.50 caught the bottom of the session and ran for 21.75 points to the next level (unpublished) which ran for 16.25 points. Feel better about the win by donating a slice to my preferred charity, the Alzheimer’s Association. Click here.

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4431.25 stop 4427.25. Short 4471.00 stop 4476.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) jumps from Zero to +43 in a mostly Bullish world with volatility picking up. 

Catalysts: Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s primary inflation measure), Personal Income & Spending @ 8:30. Chicago PMI @ 9:45. Revised UM Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00.  

Quick Tip: Diversify 

Yesterday’s Volume Profile levels crushed it picking both the top and bottom of the session for the second time in a...

Results of Wednesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Neither trade suggestion triggered in a narrow range day. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4412.50 stop 4407.50. Short 4471.00 stop 4476.75.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) drops from +29 to Zero in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: Powell spoke @ 2:30 AM ET, bullish reaction. GDP & Jobless Claims @ 8:30. Pending Home Sales @ 10:00.  Micron paints rosy future and pumps up chip sector. Wall Street banks pass stress test.  

Quick Tip: Think Risk First

You might be thinking, "Aren't we trading for the profits?" Yes, however, in the long term a well-structured risk management plan should outweigh the short-term profits you stand to gain.

Why? Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Your goal is not just to gain high returns in the short...

Results of Tuesday’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points: Shorting 4407.50 stopped out. 

Today’s Best S&P Futures Turning Points (consider wider stops and less size in fast moving markets): 

Buy 4387.00 stop 4382.25. Short 4434.25 stop 4438.50.

The World Sentiment Index: (+100/-100) rises from +21 to +29 in a world of mixed sentiment and low volatility. 

Catalysts: International Trade @8:30. Powell speaks @ 9:30. Crude Oil Inventories @ 10:30. 

Quick Tip: Change Your Mind

Part of your morning routine should be researching the markets you trade for trends, volatility, and catalysts in the upcoming session. You want context. 

The other day all the evidence pointed to a down S&P. I was convinced short was the first signal our strategies would offer. The market opened and strong buying momentum emerged. The first signal offered was long and without further consideration I took the trade. Small winner...